This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Daily Focus: Yankees vs Phillies Best Bets Today
Good morning everyone and a hearty WELCOME BACK to Spring and MLB! I'm coming to you today with a newly proposed feature called the MLB Daily Focus in which I will dive into a single game on the daily MLB slate and cover as many angles as possible in a single column. Today's schedule is interesting with SEVEN games that start before 2:00 PM ET and today's Daily Focus is on one of those games.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees
A hat tip to my colleague John Ryan who absolutely nailed yesterday's game, predicting that Philly would break through for their first win of the year at + money and advising a bet on a Schwarbomb being launched at +235 odds - it only took two pitches to cash that bet! Today features the second start for the aces of these two contenders in Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole. The vaunted Yankees offense was held to just two hits through eight innings last night before they woke up a bit in the ninth (facing Craig Kimbrel will do that) to make things interesting. With both aces going, the run total is predictably low (6.5 at FanDuel) which puts value on the over, which brings me to my first selection in this game. After watching last night's game, I believe two things to be true today: 1. The Yankees will come out swinging and 2. The Phillies will be looser with the first W under their belt. That's a recipe for runs, as are the four sluggers in this game that sport a career OPS of over 1.1 against the opposing pitchers today.
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Daily Focus Best Bet: Phillies/Yankees OVER 6.5 (-128) @ FanDuel
As mentioned above, there are four players in this game with a career OPS of over 1.1 against the starting pitcher they oppose today. Three of them are Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton (1.103), Josh Donaldson (1.396), and Anthony Rizzo (1.178). I'm turning my attention to Rizzo, who hit a monstrous shot in Monday's game and rested yesterday with lefty Matt Strahm on the hill for the Phillies. Rizzo looks to have his back problems behind him (pun intended) and is off to an excellent start to the season. In his career against Aaron Nola, Rizzo is 5-15 with two homers and with a day of rest and the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium, I like him to go deep today with a sizeable return.
Daily Focus Best Bet: Anthony Rizzo HR (+550) @ DraftKings
I will admit my last choice has no value whatsoever, but I cannot advise against it. In his first start against the Giants, Garrit Cole struck out 11 batters in six innings. Philadelphia is a team that has a tendency to strike out in bunches (12 last night) and if they do come out swinging more freely with the winless monkey off their back, that could produce both runs and strikeouts against Cole. There aren't many pitchers in the game that I would bet on striking out double-digit batters, but Cole is one of them. The situation is right to pull the trigger this time.
Daily Focus Best Bet: Gerrit Cole OVER 9.5 Ks (+120) @ DraftKings
BONUS: If Anthony Volpe is in the lineup, a small bet on 1+ Stolen Bases is worth a flier.
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Yankees vs Phillies Best Bets Rewind
Here's a recap of my best bets for Wednesday's Phillies/Yankees contest:
- Phillies/Yankees OVER 6.5 (-128) @ FanDuel
- Anthony Rizzo HR (+550) @ DraftKings
- Gerrit Cole OVER 9.5 Ks (+120) @ DraftKings