At the start of September, at least half of MLB's 12 playoff pieces seem all but locked up. You can debate where exactly to draw the line, but these six squads all average at least a 97 percent chance of making the postseason entering play on Thursday, according to the projections at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus as well as the sportsbooks seen on RotoWire's MLB Futures page.
| Team | FG Odds | BP Odds | Best Book Odds (Implied %) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 100.0% | 100.0% | N/A (100.0%) | 100.0% |
| Braves | 100.0% | 100.0% | N/A (100.0%) | 100.0% |
| Orioles | 99.9% | 100.0% | N/A (100.0%) | 100.0% |
| Rays | 99.8% | 99.2% | N/A (100.0%) | 99.7% |
| Phillies | 96.9% | 98.7% | -5000 (98.0%) | 97.9% |
| Brewers | 97.2% | 98.7% | -3000 (96.8%) | 97.6% |
97 percent isn't 100 percent, so the Phillies and Brewers in particular will need to avoid a sudden losing streak early in the month in order to truly feel safe, but the odds appear quite good that the only thing these six fanbases will be sweating in the final few weeks is seeding.
We also have 11 teams who are effectively eliminated already, with all three sources giving these clubs less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs.
| Team | FG Odds | BP Odds | Best Book Odds (Implied %) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.2% |
| Mets | 0.3% | 0.1% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.1% |
| Tigers | 0.2% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.1% |
| White Sox | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| Nationals | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| Athletics | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
| Angels | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A (0.0%) | 0.0% |
That leaves 13 teams fighting for the remaining six playoff spots, with six teams vying for just two spots in the National League and seven teams competing for four playoff berths in the American League.
| Team | FG Odds | BP Odds | Best Book Odds (Implied %) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 94.4% | 98.4% | -1600 (94.1%) | 95.6% |
| Astros | 94.7% | 95.6% | -1400 (93.3%) | 94.5% |
| Mariners | 86.8% | 74.7% | -550 (84.6%) | 82.0% |
| Cubs | 77.0% | 76.9% | -300 (75.0%) | 76.3% |
| Rangers | 70.2% | 70.2% | -300 (75.0%) | 71.8% |
| Giants | 90.4% | 55.3% | -110 (56.0%) | 56.0% |
| Blue Jays | 43.8% | 52.7% | +110 (47.6%) | 48.0% |
| Diamondbacks | 40.3% | 39.8% | +145 (40.8%) | 40.3% |
| Reds | 15.5% | 10.6% | +220 (31.3%) | 19.1% |
| Marlins | 11.1% | 12.9% | +600 (14.3%) | 12.8% |
| Red Sox | 4.5% | 7.3% | +2000 (4.8) | 5.5% |
| Guardians | 5.5% | 1.6% | +1000 (9.1%) | 5.4% |
| Padres | 1.4% | 7.0% | +3000 (3.2%) | 3.9% |
Here are the seven September series which will determine which of these teams are still playing baseball in October and which have switched to golf. Each matchup pits two of the above teams against each other, as those games will be twice as important down the stretch given that they affect two contenders' records instead of just one.
San Francisco Giants at 
San Diego Padres, Sept. 1-3
Season series: tied 3-3
The Padres just barely qualify as a contender at this point, sitting 7.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot entering the final day of August. The Nationals share the same record, but you won't find many people making the case that they have legitimate playoff hopes. The fact that the Padres get to begin September by hosting the team that owns that final playoff spot is what keeps them hanging on by a thread, as does the fact that their roster talent means they're much more capable of going on a run than a 62-72 team should be. They probably need to sweep the Giants to stay in the fight, and even then, they'll still have to leap over the Marlins, Reds and Diamondbacks.
Chicago Cubs at 
Cincinnati Reds, Sept. 1-3
Season series: Reds winning 5-4
This four-game series (the teams play a doubleheader on Friday) will go a long way towards determining the National League playoff picture, and it could also establish whether the Brewers have any reason to fear for their lead in the NL Central, which sits at three games over the Cubs and six over the Reds as of writing. Cincinnati entered August atop the division but has crashed to a 10-17 record in August, while the Cubs have gone 18-9 this month to shoot past them. Those trends suggest the Cubs should have the edge, and they could put a major dent in Elly De La Cruz's hopes of making his playoff debut if they can take three out of four over Labor Day weekend, but the Reds could use their home-field advantage to get right back in it.
Minnesota Twins at 
Cleveland Guardians, Sept. 4-6
Season series: Guardians winning 6-4
I debated whether to include this one, as the Twins' five-game lead in the AL Central means their playoff odds are nearly as good as those of the six teams who have already all but clinched, but the fact that these two square off so early in September means we could still see a genuine race down the stretch. Minnesota will be looking to avoid a repeat of last season, when they held the division lead for much of the year before collapsing down the stretch, with Cleveland eventually winning quite comfortably. Taking two out of three in Cleveland should be enough to have the Twins feeling comfortable about their chances this year, but the possibility exists for a Guardians sweep to blow the race wide open.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, Sept. 7-10
Season series: tied 0-0
These two teams have plenty to play for this September as they look to become this year's surprise National League contender. Both teams have talent, but neither has had the smoothest of seasons. The Cubs struggled for much of May and early June, sitting 10 games under .500 on June 8, while the Diamondbacks sprinted out of the gates before hitting a wall early in the second half. They'll play each other not once but twice in mid-September, with a three-game set in Arizona coming the following weekend. With the Cubs currently sitting fifth in the NL and the Diamondbacks sitting seventh, a 5-2 or 6-1 record across those seven games could prove decisive.
Boston Red Sox at 
Toronto Blue Jays, Sept. 15-17
Season series: Red Sox winning 7-3
We're skipping ahead to mid-September, which means this series has the highest chance of becoming irrelevant, as Boston's slim playoff hopes may have fully dwindled by this point. Assuming the Red Sox make it through the first half of September still on the fringes of the race, however, they'll be presented with an excellent opportunity to make up ground in the middle of the month, as they'll also face the Rangers from Sept. 18-20. Both Boston and Toronto are currently on the outside looking in and will need at least one of the three AL West contenders to slip up, but with that trio likely to beat each other up over the final three series of the season, whoever wins this matchup could be well-positioned to claim the sixth seed.
Houston Astros at 
Seattle Mariners, Sept. 25-27
Season series: Mariners winning 8-2
It was the Rangers who held the AL West lead for most of the season, but the past few days have seen the Mariners and Astros move into the joint top spot, one game ahead of Texas. Things could look different by the end of September, but the odds are strong that at least two of the three teams will still be battling it out for the division at this point, and whoever isn't should still be in the Wild Card hunt. The Mariners have dominated the Astros so far this year in their quest to win their first division title since 2001, but they'll likely have to take at least two out of three in this one if they're to seal the deal.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, Sept. 28- Oct. 1
Season series: Rangers winning 5-1
The Rangers made big moves in the free agent market over the last two winters as they looked to get back to the playoffs, and for most of this season, the prognosis seemed good even if their most significant addition, Jacob deGrom, went down early in the year and underwent Tommy John surgery. A 3-10 run in their last 13 has complicated things, however, and they're now by no means a lock for their first postseason berth since 2016. Their performances down the stretch against the Mariners will likely determine their fate. Not only do these two end the season with a four-game series in Seattle, they also play three games in Texas the previous weekend.
