Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, June 25
MLB 2026 betting record: 19-29-1, -11.34 units
Thursday's MLB betting slate starts early and ends early, with nine games packed in between 12:10 p.m. ET and 7:45 p.m.
I have predictions on three of those games, including a pair from the final contest of the night between the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Predictions and Best Bets
Cardinals -0.5, first five innings (+100 DraftKings)
Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases (+101 DraftKings)
St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy won't wow, but the groundball artist provides the Cardinals with a significant starting pitching advantage. He's light on strikeouts but limits walks and has suppressed runs at Busch Stadium, his pitcher-friendly home park.
The righty is up against a Diamondbacks lineup that has certainly disappointed, ranking 18th in runs per game and a putrid 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. McGreevy has been stingy at home, posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in seven starts.
His advanced metrics are concerning (such as his 5.70 xERA), but I'm betting on nearly any pitcher over Arizona's Zac Gallen, especially one backed by a solid offensive team like the Cardinals. They rarely strike out and rank in the top 10 in MLB in on-base percentage and wRC+.
Gallen has been abysmal more often than not, He turned in his worst outing of the season his last time out, surrendering nine runs on 12 hits to elevate his ERA to 6.10. Opposing hitters are batting .317/.367/.502 off him. Gallen's strikeout rate has dropped a whopping seven percent this year after falling five percent the year before. He has struck out just 14.3% of the batters he's faced (fourth percentile) after being 25% or above in every season from 2019-23.
The Diamondbacks have lost seven of Gallen's last 10 starts. His numbers are even worse vs. left-handed hitters: 11% strikeout rate and a .345/.398/.526 batting line. That's why I'm targeting the left-handed hitting Burleson, one of the Cardinals' most dangerous bats.
Burleson is well on his way to the best offensive season of his career, and his .843 OPS is powered by his damage against righties. Burleson doesn't whiff often and is in the 95th percentile or better in expected batting average and slugging. Against righties, he's hitting a blistering .335 with 12 of his 13 homers and a 1.015 OPS. The only players with a higher OPS vs. RHPs are Yordan Alvarez, Ben Rice, Nick Kurtz and Bryce Harper. That's pretty good company.
Burleson has recorded at least one hit in 20 of 21 games this month, topping this line 13 times, making an even-money price vs. Gallen feel like excellent value.
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Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Predictions and Best Bets
Kazuma Okamoto over 1.5 total bases (+143 DraftKings)
Tonight's matchup within the matchup between Rangers starter Mackenzie Gore and Blue Jays slugger Kazuma Okamoto will be an interesting one.
Gore throws his fastball a lot — 45-50% of the time, depending on where you pull the data from — and it has been one of the best heaters in baseball, per Baseball Savant's run value metric. As for Okamoto, he handles four-seamers as well as nearly any player in the game. Per that run value metric, only Mike Trout and Rice have been better.
We'll be seeing a great fastball pitcher against a great fastball hitter and I'm electing to bet on the latter at a juicy +143 price. Okamoto is surging, hitting a sizzling .306/.378/.569 in June with five home runs. Four of those bombs have come against fastballs.
Gore has thrived at his pitcher-friendly home park, putting up a 2.49 ERA while holding hitters to a .187 batting average. But his numbers are much different on the road (5.75 ERA, .264 BA). He's been tougher on righties, though they've accounted for 22 of the 28 extra-base hits he's surrendered.
Okamoto has a lot of swing and miss and Gore has strikeout upside, but following the lefty is a Rangers bullpen that has the third-lowest K rate in MLB and a 4.69 ERA over the last month.
The first-year third baseman has a solid on-paper matchup and is 12-8 vs. this line in June.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions and Best Bets
Yankees -1.5 (+115 Caesars Sportsbook)
New York is deploying ace Cam Schlittler, the betting favourite to win the AL Cy Young award. The hard-throwing righty has allowed two runs or fewer in all but three starts and New York is 12-4 when he gets the ball. Most of those games have been convincing wins, covering the run line 11 times, including each of his last three outings and twice vs. Boston this season.
Schlittler has allowed two earned runs while striking out 10 and walking two over those outings vs. the Red Sox (13.2 innings). His counterpart is left-hander Connelly Early, who has struggled to control the zone and keep the ball in the park, while getting pounded at home.
The Yankees are the best team in the AL against southpaws, with a 118 wRC+ and an MLB-best .199 ISO. This remains a dangerous club and lineup even without Aaron Judge, who has been sidelined all of June. The Yankees are 12-8 this month with a 110 wRC+, ranking in the top five in homers.
Boston has been by far the worst home team in the majors, going 12-25, and the club's .410 winning percentage is dead last in the AL. The first-place Yankees are coming off a win over Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers, while the Red Sox blew multiple three-run leads to the Rockies on Wednesday and dropped their series in Colorado. These AL East rivals are not the same.
MLB Picks Recap
•Cardinals -0.5, first five innings (+100 DraftKings)
•Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases (+101 DraftKings)
•Kazuma Okamoto over 1.5 total bases (+143 DraftKings)
•Yankees -1.5 (+115 Caesars Sportsbook)
