MLB: Jeff Zimmerman on Pitcher Inflation in the NFBC Main Event

MLB: Jeff Zimmerman on Pitcher Inflation in the NFBC Main Event

Spend any time listening to fantasy managers who have played in the NFBC Main Event and starting pitcher inflation will eventually come up. I've participated in a few Main Events and never experienced such a push. I decided to look into the narrative and found out the idea is true with injuries behind the movement. 

For this study, I compared the average draft position (ADP) from NFBC's Draft Champions (DC) and the Main Event (ME) leagues. The Draft Champions run from the end of the regular season and peak around the start of spring training. The Main Event drafts occur over the last couple of weeks before spring training. The people drafting in the Main Events have a ton of health information while those doing Draft Champion have little to none. 

To begin the analysis, I took all the starting pitchers going in the first 150 picks (first 10 rounds in a 15-team draft) from the 2019-2021 Draft Champions and saw where they were going in the Main Event. For clarity's sake, I removed Shohei Ohtani from consideration.

Here are the Draft Champion and Main Event ADP. I order the seasons from the least amount of turmoil to the greatest. 

2021

Count

Name

DC ADP

ME ADP

Diff

Info

1

Jacob deGrom

5.0

1.8

3.2

 

2

Gerrit Cole

6.0

5.0

0.9

 

3

Shane Bieber

9.0

8.8

0.1

 

4

Trevor Bauer

15.2

15.5

-0.4

 

5

Lucas Giolito

16.8

12.7

4.2

 

6

Yu Darvish

16.8

14.7

2.2

Spend any time listening to fantasy managers who have played in the NFBC Main Event and starting pitcher inflation will eventually come up. I've participated in a few Main Events and never experienced such a push. I decided to look into the narrative and found out the idea is true with injuries behind the movement. 

For this study, I compared the average draft position (ADP) from NFBC's Draft Champions (DC) and the Main Event (ME) leagues. The Draft Champions run from the end of the regular season and peak around the start of spring training. The Main Event drafts occur over the last couple of weeks before spring training. The people drafting in the Main Events have a ton of health information while those doing Draft Champion have little to none. 

To begin the analysis, I took all the starting pitchers going in the first 150 picks (first 10 rounds in a 15-team draft) from the 2019-2021 Draft Champions and saw where they were going in the Main Event. For clarity's sake, I removed Shohei Ohtani from consideration.

Here are the Draft Champion and Main Event ADP. I order the seasons from the least amount of turmoil to the greatest. 

2021

Count

Name

DC ADP

ME ADP

Diff

Info

1

Jacob deGrom

5.0

1.8

3.2

 

2

Gerrit Cole

6.0

5.0

0.9

 

3

Shane Bieber

9.0

8.8

0.1

 

4

Trevor Bauer

15.2

15.5

-0.4

 

5

Lucas Giolito

16.8

12.7

4.2

 

6

Yu Darvish

16.8

14.7

2.2

 

7

Walker Buehler

20.3

22.3

-2.0

 

8

Aaron Nola

21.2

19.7

1.4

 

9

Luis Castillo

25.4

24.7

0.8

 

10

Max Scherzer

26.4

20.6

5.8

 

11

Jack Flaherty

28.9

29.6

-0.7

 

12

Brandon Woodruff

30.8

26.4

4.4

Avg Diff 1 to 12

13

Clayton Kershaw

31.0

34.7

-3.7

1.2

14

Zac Gallen

43.0

145.7

-102.7

 

15

Blake Snell

44.2

35.9

8.3

 

16

Tyler Glasnow

45.5

35.2

10.3

 

17

Kenta Maeda

45.9

39.2

6.7

 

18

Lance Lynn

53.6

50.5

3.1

 

19

Corbin Burnes

54.9

42.8

12.2

 

20

Zach Plesac

68.3

83.4

-15.1

 

21

Stephen Strasburg

68.5

62.4

6.1

 

22

Hyun Jin Ryu

68.7

70.2

-1.5

Avg Diff 15 to 23

23

Max Fried

69.7

69.7

-0.1

3.3

24

Sonny Gray

70.7

109.0

-38.3

 

25

Carlos Carrasco

75.3

248.1

-172.8

 

26

Jose Berrios

80.4

67.2

13.2

 

27

Kyle Hendricks

80.4

71.7

8.7

 

28

Zack Wheeler

94.4

100.4

-6.0

 

29

Jesus Luzardo

95.1

76.2

19.0

 

30

Ian Anderson

97.2

92.9

4.3

 

31

Zack Greinke

104.5

90.9

13.6

 

32

Chris Paddack

105.2

101.3

3.9

 

33

Dylan Bundy

108.6

113.4

-4.8

 

34

Charlie Morton

115.4

85.2

30.2

 

35

Julio Urias

115.9

108.6

7.3

 

36

Joe Musgrove

118.7

95.9

22.8

 

37

Lance McCullers

118.8

93.7

25.1

 

38

Pablo Lopez

120.6

116.8

3.8

 

39

Kevin Gausman

125.1

111.8

13.3

 

40

Sixto Sanchez

130.5

133.3

-2.8

 

41

Sandy Alcantara

134.1

106.8

27.2

Avg Diff 26 to 42

42

Patrick Corbin

137.1

133.0

4.1

10.8

2019

Count

Name

DC ADP

ME ADP

Diff

Notes

1

Max Scherzer

5.5

4.0

1.5

 

2

Jacob deGrom

11.0

7.9

3.1

 

3

Chris Sale

14.1

10.2

3.9

 

4

Justin Verlander

22.3

16.4

5.9

 

5

Corey Kluber

23.5

24.7

-1.2

 

6

Aaron Nola

24.0

22.4

1.6

 

7

Gerrit Cole

24.9

18.2

6.7

 

8

Blake Snell

28.7

27.5

1.3

 

9

Trevor Bauer

31.9

21.8

10.1

 

10

Carlos Carrasco

34.8

29.0

5.8

 

11

Walker Buehler

37.3

34.0

3.3

Avg Diff 1 to 11

12

Noah Syndergaard

38.5

28.9

9.6

3.8

13

Luis Severino

42.4

117.3

-74.8

 

14

Clayton Kershaw

46.6

72.9

-26.3

 

15

Patrick Corbin

46.7

47.4

-0.8

 

16

James Paxton

52.4

48.3

4.1

 

17

Jack Flaherty

56.8

42.6

14.2

 

18

Jameson Taillon

58.1

51.5

6.6

 

19

Mike Clevinger

58.6

48.5

10.1

 

20

Stephen Strasburg

60.2

50.6

9.6

 

21

Zack Greinke

64.5

60.7

3.9

 

22

Jose Berrios

70.8

55.1

15.7

Avg Diff 15 to 21

23

German Marquez

77.2

72.7

4.5

7.5

24

Madison Bumgarner

83.3

104.5

-21.2

 

25

Zack Wheeler

87.4

64.2

23.3

 

26

Miles Mikolas

90.8

91.5

-0.8

 

27

David Price

93.4

95.2

-1.8

 

28

Mike Foltynewicz

95.7

182.1

-86.4

 

29

Luis Castillo

110.3

116.6

-6.3

 

30

Robbie Ray

117.8

112.7

5.1

 

31

Charlie Morton

121.0

116.0

5.0

 

32

Kyle Hendricks

124.1

125.1

-1.0

 

33

Chris Archer

128.0

120.0

8.0

 

34

Masahiro Tanaka

132.6

118.5

14.1

 

35

J.A. Happ

142.9

145.4

-2.5

 

36

Shane Bieber

145.5

109.6

35.9

 

37

Cole Hamels

147.5

150.6

-3.1

 

2020

Rank

Name

DC ADP

ME ADP

Diff

Notes

1

Gerrit Cole

5.4

2.2

3.2

 

2

Jacob deGrom

7.2

7.3

-0.2

 

3

Justin Verlander

14.3

9.5

4.7

 

4

Walker Buehler

15.0

19.4

-4.4

 

5

Max Scherzer

15.7

13.2

2.6

 

6

Jack Flaherty

21.9

20.1

1.8

 

7

Shane Bieber

26.3

18.5

7.8

 

8

Stephen Strasburg

27.8

23.5

4.3

 

9

Mike Clevinger

28.8

15.3

13.5

3.7

10

Blake Snell

34.9

45.3

-10.5

 

11

Luis Castillo

39.4

32.3

7.1

CHAOS

12

Patrick Corbin

42.8

44.1

-1.3

CHAOS

13

Lucas Giolito

47.1

30.8

16.3

CHAOS

14

Clayton Kershaw

48.8

42.9

5.9

CHAOS

15

Chris Sale

49.6

#N/A

#N/A

CHAOS

16

Chris Paddack

50.3

41.3

9.0

CHAOS

17

Aaron Nola

51.7

52.7

-0.9

CHAOS

18

Charlie Morton

54.5

35.2

19.3

CHAOS

19

Yu Darvish

55.3

37.0

18.3

CHAOS

20

Zack Greinke

63.3

48.2

15.1

CHAOS

21

Noah Syndergaard

66.3

#N/A

#N/A

CHAOS

22

Luis Severino

67.8

#N/A

#N/A

CHAOS

23

Tyler Glasnow

68.8

54.1

14.7

CHAOS

24

Trevor Bauer

76.4

64.7

11.7

CHAOS

25

Brandon Woodruff

78.5

67.0

11.5

CHAOS

26

Jose Berrios

81.6

56.4

25.2

CHAOS

27

Sonny Gray

95.3

84.6

10.8

CHAOS

28

Corey Kluber

97.7

86.4

11.3

CHAOS

29

Mike Soroka

100.7

114.4

-13.7

CHAOS

30

Frankie Montas

107.6

72.3

35.3

CHAOS

31

Jesus Luzardo

112.6

130.3

-17.7

CHAOS

32

Carlos Carrasco

113.0

106.9

6.1

CHAOS

33

Dinelson Lamet

114.1

111.8

2.3

CHAOS

34

Zack Wheeler

115.0

162.8

-47.8

CHAOS

35

Taylor Rogers

115.1

72.9

42.2

CHAOS

36

Zac Gallen

121.3

121.4

-0.1

CHAOS

37

Lance Lynn

122.3

92.8

29.5

CHAOS

38

Madison Bumgarner

122.5

152.3

-29.8

CHAOS

39

Max Fried

130.8

145.3

-14.5

CHAOS

40

James Paxton

131.5

94.4

37.1

CHAOS

41

Hyun Jin Ryu

132.6

146.8

-14.3

CHAOS

42

Eduardo Rodriguez

136.4

208.4

-72.0

CHAOS

Notes:

  • While the top pitchers in 2021 only moved up ~1 spot, it was between 3 and 4 spots in the other two seasons. There is some early starter inflation, probably from verifying the top arms are healthy.
  • Once a starter drops in ADP because of a major injury, all the other starters move up to fill the void. This entire starting pitcher pool step-up can be seen in the 2019 and 2021 tables.
  • In 2020, there were injuries to three pitchers (Severino, Sale, Syndergaard) who were going in the first 70 picks of Draft Champions, and then were not being taken in the Main Event because they needed Tommy John surgery. If there is turnover, just expect prices to be all over the place.

With news coming in fast and furious, several starters going in the first 150 picks already have injury issues. So far, Zack Wheeler (21 ADP), Chris Sale (50 ADP), Jack Flaherty (73 ADP) and Zac Gallen (132 ADP) have injuries that will cost them some time. Just out of the top 150, Lance McCullers (177 ADP) is out for the season. And as of this writing, not a single pitch has been thrown in spring training games. It'll only get worse. 

With those observations, the biggest piece of information missing is the number of starters drafted in the first 150 picks of both league types.

Starting Pitchers Draft in the First 150 Picks

Season

DC SPs

ME SPs

2019

37

37

2020

42

41

2021

41

42

2022

45

???

The number of starters taken in the first 10 rounds doesn't change from the two league formats. It's just that perceived healthy ones get bumped up as the injured ones drop. 

This symmetry happens because the NFBC is a closed environment with many of the same managers having both Main Event and Draft Champion teams. I asked my favorite robot (i.e. Phil Dussault) to see how much overlap there is between Draft Champion and Main Event leagues. His findings were. 

There were 645 Main Event Entries and 118 had partners so in total 763 participants, 479 of which played in at least one DC (74%). And then 1768 of the 4903 Draft Champion (entries +partners) managers had a team in the Main Event (36%). 

These managers are creatures of habit and feel a need to draft the same number of starters in the Main Event as they would in the Draft Champions. My best guess is that 45 starters will go in the first 150 picks of this year's Main Event. The question between now and then is, how many will drop out and in turn add new members to the list?

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Zimmerman
Jeff is a former RotoWire contributor. He wrote analytics-focused baseball and football articles for RotoWire. He is a three-time FSWA award winner, including the Football Writer of the Year and Best Football Print Article awards in 2016. The 2017 Tout Wars Mixed Auction champion and 2016 Tout Wars Head-to-Head champ, Zimmerman also contributes to FanGraphs.com, BaseballHQ and Baseball America.
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