A larger than normal 11-game main slate awaits Saturday evening, with games spanning from 7:10 to 10:10 p.m. EDT. If paying up for pitching is your routine, you'll love this slate. A whopping seven arms are priced in five-figures with four more in the $9,000 tier and four additional arms coming in at $8,600 or more.
Just like yesterday, you've got hitters parks in Denver and Sacramento, giving us elevated run totals at 12.0 and 11.0 respectively. While we only have two games with low 7.5 run totals, nine of the 22 teams in action have scoring expectancy of 4.0 runs or less, clearly matching the high-priced arms available. The Dodgers (-240) and Braves (-174) represent the slate's biggest favorites. Weather does not appear to be a major factor, though we do need to track some rain chances in Chicago and Cincinnati. Otherwise, it's mostly hot with minimal wind.
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Pitching
Jesus Luzardo, PHI at KC ($10,000): Walks seem to be all that's kept Luzardo from four straight quality starts, as he's allowed just five runs and 18 hits over his last 24.1 innings while striking out 36. Kansas City doesn't take the free pass frequently, walking just 7.9 percent of the time against lefties, so perhaps Luzardo can reach a higher ceiling at a slight discount to the other top-priced arms. The Royals have just a 91 wRC+ and .134 ISO against southpaws.
Sean Burke, CWS at CLE ($8,800): Burke's form suggests he should be priced higher, and if it continues, he can certainly match points with the guys priced above him for a discount. He's gone for 31.0 FDP or more in six of his last seven, three times reaching 40 or better. One of those conveniently came against the Guardians two starts prior. Cleveland sits with a .304 wOBA, 95 wRC+ and .145 ISO off righties. They do have what I find to be a slightly elevated 4.4 run expectancy, but this has pitcher's duel written all over it, and Burke can potentially match Parker Messick for $1,600 less.
Brandon Young, BAL at CIN ($8,600): This slate really tests the theory of how low can you go on the mound, and for me, you really can't go lower than Young. And honestly, this feels like an unneccessary risk in Great American Ballpark given the plethora of other options. But Cincinnati sits with a .301 wOBA, 84 wRC+ and .158 ISO off righties, striking out a whopping 25.1 percent of the time. Young has allowed more than three runs just once all season, and that was back on April 30.
Top Targets
I see no reason to not go right back to Rafael Devers ($3,600) again Saturday. He homered last night, his fourth in his last six games, and is 3-for-3 off Tomoyuki Sugano with a long ball.
Michael Wacha has allowed just two runs over his last 14.2 innings, but there's some BvP success from the Phillies big bats. Kyle Schwarber ($4,400) is pretty expensive, but is 6-for-19 (.316) with three homers, while Bryce Harper ($4,100) is 7-for-22 (.318). He hasn't launched one off Wacha but is hitting .404 with five homers in his last 13.
Merrill Kelly has given up a whopping 2.9 HR/9 at home. It's lefties who have hit him better overall, but at home it hasn't really mattered. Brice Turang ($3,800) has a six-game hitting streak (10 total hits) and is 4-for-10 with a homer off Kelly, and it's never wrong to consider Jackson Chourio ($4,100) if you can afford him.
Bargain Bats
Aaron Civale continues to struggle against lefties, allowing a .484 wOBA and 1.145 OPS to them at home. A mini stack of Kyle Stowers ($3,200) and Liam Hicks ($3,000) should fit most budgets. Stowers homered twice last night and is hitting .320 over his last 13, while Hicks has six hits and six runs in four games since returning from injury.
Atlanta's offense is in a funk, but they come heavily favored and with a 5.1 run expectancy. Austin Riley ($2,700) is a gamble better suited for GPPs, but is 3-for-6 off Sean Manaea with a homer. Mauricio Dubon ($2,800) can be a bit more of a stable, cash type play.
As noted Friday, Francisco Lindor ($2,900) likely needs to be considered every day until the price is north of 3k. He's seemingly figured out Chris Sale, hitting .368 (14-for-38) with two homers off Atlanta's starter.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. Griffin Canning (Padres): Freddie Freeman ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,400), Mookie Betts ($3,200)
It's pretty astonishing the Padres continue to run Canning out as a starter, but for DFS purposes, there's no reason to doubt that decision and just say thank you for the runs he's about to allow. It's lefties who have destroyed him all season, and since we know Shohei Ohtani won't play Saturday, we can confidently target cheaper options. Tucker is hitting .400 over his last seven, but nine of his hits in that span came in three games, making for a GPP target that's boom or bust. Freeman is hitting .396 in his last 48 at bats, and Betts .340 in his last 50. I'm off Max Muncy ($3,400) as a third lefty given that he's 1-for-12 with seven Ks against Canning, but fault no one for considering him.
Red Sox vs. Sam Aldegheri (Angels): Willson Contreras ($3,700), Wilyer Abreu ($3,100), Ceddanne Rafaela ($2,900)
Aldegheri actually hasn't been awful outside of two blowup outings, but the potential for those bad spots is real and the Red Sox have a 5.3 run expectancy as a result. It's lefties who have troubled him in minimal exposure, allowing a .475 wOBA to 37 batters faced. Curiously, Abreu has the most ABs against lefties for Boston, and he's posted a .414 wOBA and 164 wRC+ agaisnt them. Contreras has a .263 ISO off southpaws and is hitting .368 over his last six. Rafaela gives us a cheap third option likely atop the lineup at a non-premium position and has three multi-hit efforts in his last four.
