MLB Barometer: Projecting Best Hitters of Second Half Using Expected Stats

We'll wrap up our projected risers and fallers for the second half of the season series. After covering pitchers last week, the focus of this week's article shifts to hitters. The primary method of identifying some of my favorite candidates for the article is through a combination of xBA, xSLG and xwOBA, and the difference in each of those metrics from the player's actual marks halfway through the season.

Those are the starting points of the analysis, and we'll take a deeper dive on six players displayed in the charts below of some of the biggest over- and under-performers based on expected state to this point in the season.

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Risers

Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo's numbers look fine and are nearly identical to last season, so he may be a surprising start to this list. That, along with the fact that he's 33 years old, doesn't suggest that he'll take a step forward. On the other hand, Nimmo has a .383 xwOBA and ranks in the 91st percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, hard hit percentage and xwOBAcon. While all of those stats measure something slightly different, they all illustrate that Nimmo has made some of the best quality of contact of his career.

Nimmo's profile has never been optimized for power, but he hits enough flyballs and has high enough quality of contact that his 8.2 percent HR/FB is an outlier. Looking at projections, the BAT X has Nimmo for 12 the rest of the season, which seems reasonable. Nimmo has also most recently hit third or fourth in the Rangers' order, which should give him plenty of opportunity for RBI and runs.

The caveat is Nimmo's health. As of the drafting of this article, he had missed four consecutive games with a shoulder sprain. Given that he hasn't been placed on the IL, yet, it seems likely he'll avoid a full shutdown, but it is a situation to monitor.

Cam Smith

Smith has already realized some improved results relative to his rookie season, but there's reason to believe even more positive results are on the way. The ways in which he has improved are particularly interesting, because they mirror the jump he took as a prospect. In short, Smith has begun to turn his elite size and athleticism into translatable skill.

The most obvious way in which that has been displayed is through Smith's bat speed. He has improved his bat speed nearly 3.0 mph, and he currently ranks in the 97th percentile in the metric. Smith has also begun to make more consistent contact, improving his strikeout rate by 2.5 percentage points.

The result has been a nearly doubling of his barrel rate and a big jump in hard-hit rate, all while slightly improving his flyball rate. There are still steps for him to take, but the positive signs are very strong. There is also some bad luck at play. While it is a simplistic stat at this point, Smith has a .269 BABIP, which is reflected in the gap between his .223 batting average and .251 xBA.

The last step will be for Smith to consistently work his way to a prominent spot in the Houston lineup. He's spent most of the season batting sixth through eighth, but he's occupied the fifth spot in four of the Astros' last six games.

Alec Burleson

Burleson is already having an impressive season, so it's a bit ambitious to claim that there's more on the way. Unlike some of the other risers, Burleson has consistently hit the ball well and managed his strikeouts. Instead, he's learned to optimize his contact.

Burleson has typically had a groundball-heavy profile, and that hasn't changed in 2026. However, he has made his flyballs count. In addition to pulling his flyballs at a career-high rate of 18.8 percent, Burleson has also increased his exit velocity on flyballs from 92.9 and 92.6 in 2024 and 2025, respectively, to 96.0. To put that another way, his ISO is at a career-high mark of .199.

His xHR also suggests he's underperformed. While Burleson is already well on pace to set a new career high in home runs, his xHR of 17.8 well outpaces the 14 he's hit so far. He's also hit primarily third in the order in the overachieving Cardinals' lineup, which should keep his counting stats rolling in.

Fallers

Christian Yelich

Yelich has always been an interesting fantasy evaluation because of his high groundball rate and reliance on making excellent contact to hit for power. That's also given him a thin margin for error to continue to produce as he progresses in his career. He appears to be ready to fall off that proverbial cliff.

Yelich already has had a relatively down season. He has only a .134 ISO across 228 plate appearances, which is a fairer indicator of his production than just his home run mark, given that he missed time. A peek at some of his metrics suggests that's no fluke.  His fast-swing rate and nearly all of his quality of contact metrics have fallen to at or near career lows.

Even Yelich's sprint speed has fallen, which currently measures out to the 47th percentile. In 2024, he was in the 80th percentile, and he was in the 71st percentile in 2025. He's still gone 6-for-6 on his chances, but his days of 30 steals look to be over.

The redeeming and seemingly consistent part of Yelich's profile is that he leads off against righties, hits in a strong lineup and still gets on base at a strong clip. He won't be a fantasy disaster, but it's important to understand the skills Yelich has shown halfway through his age-34 season.

Brandon Marsh

Marsh is a pretty clear case for regression, because practically nothing in his profile has changed, yet he's on pace for a career-best season in every stat but stolen bases. The only reasonable change in his profile to point to is that he's gotten far more aggressive at the plate. Marsh has an overall swing rate of 53.8 percent, which has spiked in both pitches in and outside of the zone. Perhaps that has helped him make contact on more hittable pitches, but it hasn't translated to any of his underlying skills.

Brooks Lee

Lee has been a key member of the Twins' surprisingly effective lineup halfway through the season. His results have improved across the board, and he's regularly pushed into the top half of the lineup. It would even have been reasonable to expect a step forward from Lee, as he was the eighth overall pick and a relatively high-level prospect throughout his time in the Twins' minor-league system.

Lee's skills profile has been a mix of good and bad. He has improved his plate discipline and has a strong track record of making consistent contact. With regular playing time, that gives him a decent floor. However, there is nothing suggesting he has any top of power ceiling. A quick glance at his Statcast page reveals he has not been above-average, or even average, in any of the quality of contact metrics. That's reflected cleanly in his .293 xwOBAcon, which ranks in the sixth percentile, a stat that is entirely meant to measure the quality of contact a player makes.

Even taking into account Lee's shortcomings as a fielder, he should remain a key part of Minnesota's lineup. His skillset is also well-suited to maintain some value, but he's outperforming his skills and is arguably at the top of his range of potential outcomes with his current pace of production.