This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
12 games are featured in Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel. Five arms are priced in five-figures, with four more coming in at 9k or greater. That's just 37.5 percent of the pitchers, suggesting there isn't much quality below.
That thought may not be backed up by oddsmakers. Only two games have a run total of 9.5, and it's Nationals-White Sox and Guardians-Royals, who are not excatly potent, targetable lineups. The latter of those two games appears to be coming with some decent wind blowing out, and looks like our only wind boost. We're looking pretty dry across the country as well, so all games should be in play.
Pitching
Blake Snell, SD vs. COL ($11,300): There's seemingly no wrong answer when choosing between the slate's top four arms; all are in at least decent form, have plus matchups and success against their opponent. But when paying this price, you can't miss, and that makes Snell the safest choice. He's turned in seven straight quality starts and you have to go back to July 20 to find a game with less than 30 FDP. He dominated the Rockies for 58 FDP (12 ks in 7.0 innings), in Coors Field previously. And we know the Rockies stink against lefties, fanning a massive 26.1 percent of the time with a horrible 68 wRC+.
Ryan Pepiot, LAD vs. DET ($9,900): The second-tier pitchers don't present nearly as obviously. One thing I refuse to do, essentially ever, is pay for Yusei Kikuchi ($9,700), so I land on Pepiot almost exclusively for the matchup. Detroit has a 25.0 percent K rate and .139 ISO off righties. Perhaps that boosts Pepiot's upside, as he is fanning just 7.3 per nine in limited MLB exposure. But he's limited damage, allowing one or no runs in four of his five stars. There may not be 4x upside for this elevated price, but 3x or greater seems very doable.
Javier Assad, CHC vs. PIT ($6,600): Assad's price has plummeted thanks to two poor outings, where he's allowed seven runs and 12 hits across 8.2 innings. But one of those came in Coors Field so I'm willing to overlook it given how little risk this price makes him. He's a risk as far as longevity is concerned, but prior to these last two outings he had earned four quality starts in five outings, including seven innings of one-run ball against the Pirates in rout to 49 FDP. Pittsburgh fans at an okay 23.7 percent K rate, offering just a .140 ISO and 88 wRC+ off of righties.
Top Targets
If we trust the odds makers and are in on Cleveland/Kansas City, Bobby Witt ($4,200) checks all the boxes. He's earned double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 10, collecting 13 hits, nine stolen bases and nine runs scored, has a .363 wOBA and low 13.1 percent soft contact rate off lefties, and is 3-for-6 off Guardians starter Logan Allen.
Nathan Eovaldi hasn't impressed in three appearances since returning from injury, allowing 11 hits and six runs across 7.0 innings. Rafael Devers ($4,000) is white hot while winning Player of the Week honors, going 9-for-19 with three homers and seven walks in his last six games.
Juan Soto ($3,900) is off of the same weekly honor, and didn't cool off Monday either. He's priced too favorably for his current form, where he's collected 13 hits in his last seven games, with four homers, 15 RBI and 10 runs scored.
Bargain Bats
William Contreras ($3,200) has done it all year against lefties, posting a .450 wOBA, 186 wRC+ and .292 ISO. That secret is likely long out of the bag, so if you're worried about usage, perhaps Mark Canha ($3,000) is the play. It's just 34 play appearances since coming to Milwaukee, but he has a robust .498 wOBA, 218 wRC+ and .387 ISO, collecting 21 hits (three homers) in September.
While these are strictly BvP plays, I mentioned my distain for Kikuchi previously so it makes some sense to have a Yankee bat. Gleyber Torres ($3,200) is 8-for-20 (.400) off the Blue Jays' starter with a homer and 1.029 OPS. DJ LeMahieu ($2,700) is 7-for-21 (.333) with an .845 OPS.
The starters in Washington have allowed 14 runs and 21 hits across their last three starts, spanning 14.0 innings, and no bat is priced north of $3,300 here, so build lineups elsewhere, and perhaps round things out positionally as needed from this game. Tim Anderson ($2,500) has had a lost season, but does have seven hits in his last two games and is incredibly cheap for a likely leadoff hitter. On the other side, Joey Meneses ($2,700) is priced favorably for a run producer, and I'm a fan of Luis Garcia ($2,500) as a GPP feast or famine option. He's got four hits and two homers in his last five games, but they came in two outings so it's an all or nothing play.
Stacks to Consider
Guardians vs. Steven Cruz/bullpen: Jose Ramirez ($3,700), Josh Naylor ($3,300), Steven Kwan ($3,000)
The price point here makes it almost too easy, but if we're buying the elevated run total here and more importantly, the wind aiding fly balls, this should be a smash spot for the top of the Guardians lineup. We can't target splits with Kansas City going with an opener, which is perhaps a good thing given that Cleveland isn't normally a preferred lineup. Ramirez is the obvious anchor, has hit in six straight and 10 of 11, collecting 17 hits total in that stretch. Naylor remains routinely underpriced for someone with 91 RBI and a .311 BA. He has 18 hits in 14 September games, driving in 12 and scoring seven times. Kwan is in nice form too, with nine hits, six walks and five runs scored in his last eight.
Rangers vs. Tanner Houck: Corey Seager ($4,400), Nathaniel Lowe ($3,100), Jonah Heim ($3,000)
Here, we can target splits almost exclusively with Houck allowing a .391 wOBA and .919 OPS to lefties on the road agaisnt just .214/.474 to righties. Seager is hitless in his last 12 at bats, and we unfortunately don't get a discount as a result, but is overdue a bounceback and has a robust .450 wOBA, 191 wRC+ and .348 ISO off righties. Lowe sits at .374/138/.173. Heim meanwhile does not have great numbers off righties and is a bit forced into this as a third left-handed bat. It's not a traditional lineup stack, and can be made even less so if we target Evan Carter ($2,700) at the bottom of this order. He'd offer a tad more financial flexibility, and has shown well in limited exposure since promotion
