This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Nine games are featured on Saturday evening's FanDuel main slate. Seven of our 16 listed starters are priced at $9,000 or greater, with two coming in at 11k or greater, making it a pretty top-heavy slate. As that would figure, we don't have a game with a run total greater than nine, with two sitting at a low 7.5. Runs figure to be difficult to find here, but there's symmetry game-to-game, so we should be able to find some offense.
We don't look completely dry, but minor shower chances in Chicago, Kansas City and St. Louis appear to be more a nuisance than a concern. Wind looks to be blowing in in New York, and out in Los Angeles.
I'm not done yet for the year, we've got a ways to go. But an early thanks to loyal readers throughout the year. I feel like we've found some decent success throughout, but I've been in a bit of a rut lately. Here's to hoping for a weekend breakthrough!
Pitching
Pablo Lopez, MIN at CWS ($11,000): I'm expecting many to gravitate towards Corbin Burnes Saturday as their top pitcher, so perhaps Lopez gives us lower usage. The White Sox rank second-to-last with a meager 82 wRC+ off lefties, fanning at a 23.3 percent clip. Lopez has allowed just three runs in his last three starts, and nine in his last eight, earning eight quality starts. He's also dominated this lineup, allowing a .182 average and .529 OPS with a 23.4 percent K rate.
Tylor Megill, NYM vs. CIN ($8,400): There's nothing wrong with the top arms on this slate, they're obviously priced that way for a reason, but the middle tier I find to be rather uninspiring. Megill's appeal is truthfully all about his home/road splits. He has a 3.43 ERA/4.27 FIP at home against a 7.09/6.26 on the road. He's earned 28 or more FDP in each of his last three home starts, and in six of seven, with the one blip being against Atlanta's loaded offense. Cincinnati brings a below-average 95 wRC+ and targetable 24.5 percent K rate into Saturday.
Sawyer Gipson-Long, DET at LAA ($7,400): We don't have much to go on with Gipson-Long, who's made just one MLB start, striking out five in five innings. He had a 13.0 K/9 rate at Triple-A, offering promise, but also allowed 2.1 HR/9 there, a risky proposition if the winds are in deed blowing out. The Angles however fan at a 24.7 percent clip, and become more appealing for opposing pitchers if Shohei Ohtani is indeed shutting things down for the season. This is a shot I'm willing to take for GPPs on the cheaper side of arms.
Top Targets
I don't feel great about paying this price for a guy hitting .226, but Pete Alonso ($4,200) is surging, collecting six hits, including two homers, and nine RBI in his last four games. He also has a team-best .374 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and .333 ISO off lefties. We noted the wind not being in his favor above, but he still profiles nicely.
Bobby Witt ($4,000) doesn't have elite numbers overall off righties, but a 111 wRC+ remains above league average. He has nine hits over his last five games and seven stolen bases, resulting in five straight double-digit fantasy point games. With multiple paths to scoring points, he's a nice anchor. Astros' starter J.P. France has allowed 18 runs across his last four starts, spanning 19.0 innings.
Bryce Harper ($3,700) is priced favorably Saturday. He's got a .387 wOBA and 144 wRC+ off righties, and is 6-for-15 (.400) with two homers and a 1.267 OPS off Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas.
Bargain Bats
With wind potentially being an aide, Detroit bats could be decent values Saturday. Spencer Torkelson ($3,400) comes with a .348 wOBA and nice .294 ISO off lefties, and has hit safely in six straight and 11 of his last 12. Kerry Carpenter ($2,900) doesn't have the same upside with just a .113 ISO, but has a sound .352 wOBA and 125 wRC+ off lefties while collecting hits in 10 of his last 12.
Zach Davies doesn't have highly targetable splits to either handed hitter, but he's got a 6.23 home ERA (4.83 xFIP), and Cubs offensive pricing has cooled enough to target them again. Dansby Swanson ($3,200) went hitless last night but had 10 in his previous five games and has taken Davies deep once in six at bats. Seiya Suzuki ($3,100) has six RBI in his last three games, and hits in 13 of his last 15 games, 22 knocks in total.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. Bryce Miller: Freddie Freeman ($4,200), Max Muncy ($3,600), James Outman ($2,800)
This is a less than traditional stack when considering lineup positions, but we're targeting left-handed bats against Miller, who is allowing a .366 wOBA and .862 OPS to them against .242/.556 to righties. Freeman needs no introduction, but for entertainment, he earned 12.2 FDP last night without getting a hit. For someone hitting .206 on the year, Muncy is as dialed in as possible. He's earned double-digit FDP in seven straight, mashing three homers in the proces. Outman is a bit of an outlier, likely hitting in the bottom third of the order and not giving us the opportunity to benefit off the other two, but it's a third left-handed bat that has some pop, homering twice in his last five, and it helps balance the budget.
Twins vs. Touki Toussaint: Royce Lewis ($3,700), Jorge Polanco ($3,200), Edouard Julien ($2,900)
Toussaint doesn't have overly targetable splits to lefties or righties, but he just continues to give up runs; 31 across his last eight starts. Lewis is a terrific stand alone play as he's becoming a bonafide star. He has a .401 wOBA, 160 wRC+ and .288 ISO off righties and has homered in two straight and in three of his last five. Julien comes with a .387 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and .216 ISO. We don't often target walks, but Julien takes free passes at a 17.2 percent rate and has earned at least one in eight straight. Facing a pitcher that walks 6.4 per nine, Julien has a stable floor. Polanco rounds this out as a top of the order stack. His .349 wOBA and 123 wRC+ are decent enough, and he's hit safely in four straight and six of seven.
