This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
13 games are featured on FanDuel's Friday main slate as we head into the season's final regular weekend. We're seeing some offenses seemingly mail it in, making it difficult to discern where success will come from. There are only two pitchers priced in five-figures, and five more priced in the 9k tier. Colorado doesn't have a listed arm, but that's still only 28 percent of our pitching that's considered a pay up.
Coors Field leads are way with an 11.5 run total, followed by Atlanta-Washington at 10.5. Three other games have run totals at 9.0 or greater, so there are some spots with some scoring potential. Weather looks like a serious concern for Phillies at Mets, and potentially Red Sox at Orioles, where wind will also be blowing in. Anaheim looks like the only potential spot for wind-aided big flys.
Pitching
Carlos Rodon, NYY at KC ($8,700): Rodon is still allowing runs, 17 in five September starts, but there have been glimpses of form. He's surrendered just seven in his last three outings while fanning 23 across 18.0 innings, and he looks to be in a spot to close the season well. Kansas City ranks 28th off lefties overall with an 87 wRC+ and .303 wOBA while fanning 24.2 percent of the time. The strikeout potential should create a floor for Rodon, and if he limits damage, he could give a third 40+ FDP outing in his final four starts, creating massive upside at this price.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC at MIL ($8,500): With Rodon being the upside play, Hendricks is the boring option Friday evening. He fans only 6.2 per nine but his 3.66 ERA comes with a 3.79 FIP, so it's about as stable and real a number as you can find. The Cubs are coming off being swept in Atlanta and need a quality outing here to keep their playoff hopes alive. Milwaukee counters with just a .306 wOBA, 90 wRC+ and 22.9 percent K rate off righties. Hendricks has a 0.75 ERA in two starts against the Brewers, allowing eight hits and one earned run across 12.0 innings, striking out 11.
John Means, BAL vs. BOS ($7,400): I'm going for a jinx angle here; I clicked the wrong button on a preseason Red Sox win total at 77, they sit at 76 and are 2-14 over their last 16, being shut out four times while scoring three or less 10 times. Either I get a push, or Means continues to beat up an offense that clearly doesn't care. Means has improved in each of his three September starts, having now allowed just two runs and five hits across his last 12.1 innings. He doesn't fan many at just 3.1 per nine, so we'll need innings and minimal damage, which seems probable.
Top Targets
We know we want shares of the Atlanta offense, and if you're a BvP guy, there's ample options throughout (Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna and/or Orlando Arcia). But overall, Trevor Williams is allowing a .416 wOBA and .995 OPS to lefties on the road, so I'll settle on Matt Olson ($4,300) as my anchor. He's a lock to lead the league in homers and RBI, but could do some serious stat padding this weekend. His only hit off Williams in five at bats has left the yard.
Corbin Carroll ($4,100) is doing his part to keep the Diamondbacks in the playoff chase. He's hitting .365 over his last 12 games, collecting 19 hits, 13 runs and five steals, resulting in a 150 wRC+. He's done it all year off righties, and makes for a solid solo option in a big series with Houston and starter J.P. France
Bargain Bats
I have some interest in Red bats against Jake Woodford/the Cardinals bullpen. Woodford is allowing a .455 wOBA and 1.105 OPS to lefties at home, but the struggle is how long will he pitch and give us multiple opportunities? Will Benson ($2,700) is the Reds best option statistically, but there are a plethora of lefties that hit higher in the order that may get two chances off Woodford. If you're punting the LvR splits, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($2,900) has homered in three of his last four, offering elite upside under 3k.
Nathan Eovaldi hasn't been good since returning from injury, allowing 21 hits, 11 walks, five homers and 14 runs across 17.0 innings. J.P. Crawford ($3,300) has a team-best .370 wOBA and 141 wRC+ off righties, and makes sense as the leadoff hitter here. He's just 2-for-11 off Eovaldi, so if you're a BvP guy, consider Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000), who is 5-for-14 with a homer off Eovaldi, or Ty France ($2,700), who is 6-for-13.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers vs. Bryan Woo: Corey Seager ($4,300), Marcus Semien ($3,600), Evan Carter ($3,400)
Woo has struggled against lefties all year, allowing a .402 wOBA and .954 OPS against .217/.487 to righties, numbers that are even more drammatic at home, sitting a .447/1.084 and .184/.400. That puts Seager and Carter, as well as some of the other Ranger lefties immediately in play. Further, Texas has had his number, pounding out 12 hits (including four homers) and 12 runs across just 5.1 innings against Woo in two starts. Seager and Semien are both 3-for-4 off of him with a long ball. This gives us a potential 9-1-2 lineup stack, and Semien is hot enough to make that move despite Woo's overall success on righties, with six hits and four homers in his last five.
Rays vs. Yusei Kikuchi: Randy Arozarena ($3,400), Harold Ramirez ($2,800), Junior Caminero ($2,600)
I like targeting against Kikuchi most times out, and the Rays' have had success against him overall, with the lineup hitting .312 off of him overall, though with a limited .782 OPS. They got three runs and nine hits off of him in his last start, and have faired well off lefties overall, so we can consider virtually everyone in this lineup. Perhaps wait and see how the order shakes out. But Arozarena gives us a power plate even if he's not in great form. Ramirez is a solid 5-for-13 off Kikuchi, and brings a .403 wOBA and 161 wRC+ off lefties to the table. Why not have some fun with the third piece? Caminero likely hits around these two in the order, has hit safely in three of four since his promotion, and offers immense potential for cheap.
