This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
After a light Thursday, Friday is packed with MLB action. There are 13 games taking place at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Thursday you may have been scrounging for lineup choices, but Friday you have a lot of decisions to make. Here are my recommendations to help you with those decisions.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL at CWS ($11,200): As the Brewers vie for the NL Central title, Burnes has turned his game up as part of that quest. Over his last seven starts he's posted a 2.00 ERA with a 10.9 K/9 strikeout rate. An impatient White Sox lineup is not just 25th in runs scored, but last in team OBP at a mere .295.
Andrew Abbott, CIN at PIT ($9,800): Abbott's last couple of starts have been dicey, but all in all he has a 2.93 ERA in 12 starts. The lefty has also held southpaws to a mere .173 average. Pittsburgh has collapsed, fallen to 24th in runs scored, and need to pick it up to avoid a 100-loss season at this point.
Chris Sale, BOS vs. DET ($7,900): Sale is expected to come off the 60-day IL to start against the Tigers on Friday. He's made two appearances in Triple-A as a means of rehab, and it went smoothly enough. The lefty has had a hard time staying healthy, but he has a 3.68 FIP and 10.83 K/9 rate in his 11 starts this season. As for Detroit, it is battling two divisional rivals in Kansas City and Cleveland for the "honor" of finishing 29th in runs scored, but Detroit is pretty well locked into finishing 29th in team OPS.
Top Targets
He has a .378 OBP and will set a new career high in stolen bases given that he already has 23 of them, but what really stands out about Kyle Tucker ($5,700) this year is that he has suddenly turned into a lefty who is hitting lefties. This season he's posted an 1.002 OPS in those matchups. Reid Detmers has a 5.49 ERA on the road, and this year he's let his fellow lefties hit .312 against him.
Outside of his MVP peak, Christian Yelich ($5,600) is on pace to have the best season of his career. In addition to his 16 home runs and 23 stolen bases, he's racked up a .922 OPS versus righties. Michael Kopech, a righty, has a disastrous pitching profile. He allows a ton of walks and home runs, and that's primarily why he has a 6.19 FIP. Yelich will either be on base when a homer drives him in, or maybe hitting that homer.
Bargain Bats
Though CJ Abrams ($4,400) has holes remaining in his game, he's a shortstop with 11 homers and 28 stolen bases, which makes DFS players happy. His power is middling and his walk rate is low, but the lefty has a .773 OPS versus righties and a .756 OPS at home. Paul Blackburn doesn't allow many home runs, but he still has a 5.09 ERA on the road, in part because lefties have hit .301 against him.
MJ Melendez ($3,300) has not made much of an improvement at the plate this year, if any. He has been hot recently, as he has a .947 OPS over the last three weeks. Mostly, though, this is about the matchup. A .400 batting average is a magical number. Lefties have hit .400 against Adam Wainwright this year. Yes, really. The veteran righty has had a woeful campaign, including a 7.81 ERA and 5.35 strikeouts per nine innings for good measure.
Stacks to Consider
Padres at Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson): Juan Soto ($5,700), Ha-Seong Kim ($5,000), Trent Grisham ($3,300)
I am of the general philosophy that if a pitcher has significant home/road splits, there is likely some noise in there, but any particularly bad number is a red flag. That brings me to Nelson, who has an 8.01 ERA at home. If you do that in any venue over any sequence of 48.1 innings. You've got issues on the mound. Nelson also only has struck out 5.90 batters per nine, another point in the favor of this San Diego trio.
Soto is the kind of player who can casually put up a .413 OBP with 24 homers. He's solid against lefties and good at home, but the lefty has a .991 OPS against righties and an 1.014 OPS on the road. I read somebody saying in another, Ronald Acuna-free season, Kim would be an MVP candidate. Some of that is down to fielding the second base position, but he does have a .384 OBP with 15 homers and 27 stolen bases with an .884 OPS on the road. Grisham has 11 homers and 11 stolen bases, and he's getting to face a righty Friday. Nelson has let southpaws hit .289 against him.
Dodgers vs. Rockies (Austin Gomber): Mookie Betts ($6,500), Will Smith ($5,500), James Outman ($3,300)
Gomber has had three good starts in a row, but count me as dubious he will continue that. He has a career 4.85 ERA, and this season the lefty has a 5.25 FIP. Also, since joining the Rockies, Gomber has a 5.35 ERA on the road, so he can't blame Coors Field for his woes. The Dodgers seem like a prime candidate to bring Gomber back down to Earth.
Betts has an 1.087 OPS versus lefties, an 1.070 OPS at home, and 31 homers hitting leadoff. Yeah, that'll do. Smith has slashed .277/.383/.467 as a catcher. He also has an OPS over .900 against lefties over the last two seasons. Outman, who has 13 homers and 14 stolen bases, is a lefty, but his .766 OPS against southpaws is not bad. More to the point, though, Gomber has allowed his fellow left-handers to hit .368 against him.
Phillies vs. Twins (Dallas Keuchel): Trea Turner ($5,200), Nick Castellanos ($4,800), Alec Bohm ($4,700)
Keuchel posted a 6.35 ERA over the previous two seasons, so I was a bit surprised when the Twins gave him a shot in the rotation. Games matter for them! He only allowed one run in five innings against the Diamondbacks…but he allowed eight hits, two walks and had zero strikeouts. I think Keuchel got lucky, and I am not betting on that again. He is a lefty, though one who struggles against southpaws, so I went with three righties in this stack.
Turner has had a tough campaign, but he has 12 homers, four triples and 22 stolen bases as a shortstop. For what he's worth, he has a .751 OPS versus lefties and a .721 OPS at home. Castellanos has improved some in his second season with the Phillies, having hit .276 with 20 homers and seven stolen bases. He's been bolstered by an .889 OPS versus lefties and a .929 OPS at home. Righty Bohm has the kind of hitting profile you usually expect from a southpaw. He can't hit his fellow righties, but he's posted an .896 OPS against lefties.
