Last week, I took a look at three position players that significantly overachieved related to their ADP. This week, it's time to examine the other end of the spectrum with some bats that disappointed. Can they bounce back in 2026?
Mookie Betts, SS, Dodgers
Betts settled in surprisingly well defensively in 2025 in his first full season as an everyday shortstop, but his performance at the plate in his age-32 season was the worst of his career. He finished with a .258/.326/.406 slash line with 20 home runs and just eight stolen bases. Thanks in large part to his supporting cast, Betts did drive in 82 runs and score 95 more, but he still finished outside the top-80 players, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values, after being a consensus first-round pick in drafts last spring.
Betts' contact skills remained elite in 2025. They got better, in fact, as he struck out at just a 10.3 percent clip while walking at a rate of 9.2 percent. However, he still had a career-low .258 batting average and his xBA wasn't much higher at .267. The reason for that is Betts is an extreme flyball hitter, and when your quality of contact goes in the wrong direction, most of those flyballs are going to be outs.
When Betts was the National League MVP runner-up in 2023, he sported a 48.5 percent hard-hit rate, 12.4 percent barrel rate and 92.4 mph average exit velocity. Those marks were down significantly in 2024, and the
Last week, I took a look at three position players that significantly overachieved related to their ADP. This week, it's time to examine the other end of the spectrum with some bats that disappointed. Can they bounce back in 2026?
Mookie Betts, SS, Dodgers
Betts settled in surprisingly well defensively in 2025 in his first full season as an everyday shortstop, but his performance at the plate in his age-32 season was the worst of his career. He finished with a .258/.326/.406 slash line with 20 home runs and just eight stolen bases. Thanks in large part to his supporting cast, Betts did drive in 82 runs and score 95 more, but he still finished outside the top-80 players, per RotoWire's Earned Auction Values, after being a consensus first-round pick in drafts last spring.
Betts' contact skills remained elite in 2025. They got better, in fact, as he struck out at just a 10.3 percent clip while walking at a rate of 9.2 percent. However, he still had a career-low .258 batting average and his xBA wasn't much higher at .267. The reason for that is Betts is an extreme flyball hitter, and when your quality of contact goes in the wrong direction, most of those flyballs are going to be outs.
When Betts was the National League MVP runner-up in 2023, he sported a 48.5 percent hard-hit rate, 12.4 percent barrel rate and 92.4 mph average exit velocity. Those marks were down significantly in 2024, and the downward trend continued in 2025, as he had just a 35.8 percent hard-hit rate, 5.5 percent barrel rate and 89.1 mph average exit velocity. Betts' bat speed was also in just the 10th percentile in 2025, down from the 38th percentile in 2023.
Betts missed the Dodgers' first two regular-season games against the Cubs in Japan due to an illness that caused him to lose nearly 20 pounds, and it's possible it simply took him a while to regain his strength. That September was easily Betts' most productive month lends credence to this theory, as he collected a .299/.343/.557 batting line and six home runs, and he sported a 44 percent hard-hit rate that month. Of course, it could also just be random variance. Betts had an ugly .250/.323/.376 slash line and 34 percent hard-hit rate for the season heading into September.
Betts' ADP in NFBC drafts thus far is 51, so while he's coming at a major discount from the previous year, drafters are counting on him to rebound to some degree. For me personally, I'm viewing Betts as a high-floor play whose ceiling is questionable heading into his age-33 season. He's a below-average runner at this point who might not get back to double digits in the stolen-base department, and it hurts that he's now eligible only at a shortstop position that's super deep.
Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
From 2021 to 2023, Riley was one of the most consistent sluggers in the game. He slashed .286/.354/.525 while averaging 36 home runs and 99 RBI over that stretch, and he played 478 out of a possible 486 contests. Things have turned sour over the last two seasons, however, as the third baseman has hit a mediocre .258/.316/.445 while averaging 17.5 home runs, 55 RBI and 106 games played. It was a fractured hand that cost Riley time in 2024, and in 2025 it was a nagging core injury that eventually required season-ending surgery in August.
Riley finished with a 28.6 percent strikeout rate last season, which was easily his highest since a bloated 36.4 percent mark in his rookie season. In the five seasons in between, Riley's strikeout rate settled in the 23.8 to 25.4 percent range every year. Those are below-average marks and cap Riley from a batting average perspective, but he's been able to overcome the elevated strikeout rates because he hits the ball with such authority consistently, and that was no different in 2025.
As you can see in the image above taken from Baseball Savant, Riley regularly ranks among the game's elite in terms of quality of contact. He also has no trouble lofting the ball in the air or pulling the ball, and Truist Park in Atlanta ranks seventh in Baseball Savant's Park Factors over the last three seasons for right-handed hitters.
Health seems like the only thing that could keep Riley from being a four-category fantasy stud again, and he is expected to be fully recovered from surgery by spring training. He is projected to bat cleanup behind Ronald Acuna, Jurickson Profar and Matt Olson as part of what should be a resurgent Braves lineup. Riley's ADP in NFBC drafts sits at 74.8, and he's the fifth third baseman off the board. I think he's as good a bet as any to finish second at the position in fantasy behind Jose Ramirez.
Oneil Cruz, OF, Pirates
Cruz clubbed 20 home runs and swiped 38 bases last season, yet he still managed to finish outside the top-100 players in roto leagues. That gives you an idea as to how bad he was in the other three categories, and in fact Cruz was the first player in major-league history with 20-plus home runs and 30-plus stolen bases to hit below .230 (and it was way below at an even .200).
Cruz remained god-like when he made contact last season. The 27-year-old's hard-hit rate (56.6 percent), barrel rate (17.9 percent), average exit velocity (95.8 mph) and max exit velocity (122.9 mph) all ranked in the 97th percentile or higher, and they were each career-best marks. However, he still hit the ball on the ground way too much (his 48.3 percent groundball rate was a full-season career high) and he wasn't good at pulling the ball in the air (his 13.2 percent pull AIR rate ranked 208th out of 251 batted-ball qualifiers). And, of course, the biggest problem is that Cruz simply didn't make enough contact, posting a full-season high 32 percent strikeout rate, the fourth-worst in baseball among qualified hitters
Also working against the left-handed-hitting Cruz is that he's become unplayable against lefty hurlers, having slashed an obscene .102/.224/.176 with a 35.2 percent strikeout rate versus them last season. That's simply not going to cut it, particularly for a guy whose defense in center field has been shaky.
| Manager | Cruz Starts vs LHP | Cruz Starts vs LHP% |
|---|---|---|
| Derek Shelton | 7 of 9 | 77.8 |
| Don Kelly | 7 of 27 | 25.9 |
As you can see above, Cruz started seven of nine games against lefties under former manager Derek Shelton at the beginning of last season (77.8 percent), but after Don Kelly took over as skipper, Cruz was in the lineup only seven times in 27 games (25.9 percent) and none of the final 12 contests versus left-handers. The Pirates did not have a great short-side platoon option for Cruz in 2025, but they've rectified that this offseason, adding switch hitter Jake Mangum and right-handed hitter Jhostynxon Garcia via trade. With their moves this offseason, Pittsburgh has signaled a desire to field a competitive club in 2026, so Kelly — whose interim tag has been removed — seems unlikely to give Cruz many, if any, reps against lefties.
Cruz's early NFBC ADP comes in at 91.6, and he's the No. 19 outfielder off the board. If you think what the 27-year-old did in 2025 is a worst-case scenario, you might be inclined to buy him at his current price. The counting stats could easily get worse, though, as Cruz is now in a clear platoon situation and could bat lower in the order versus righties following the Pirates' offensive upgrades.
