Collette Calls: Grouping Pitching By Pitch Modeling Profile

Last month, I wrote about how I like to approach planning for hitters. I pair them up by skills so I do not panic when "my guy" goes earlier than expected or for more money than I was expecting. If you have heard me talk on podcasts or SiriusXM Fantasy of late, I have used the example of wanting a $30 outfielder in AL LABR and considering Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia and Luis Robert Jr. as similar players for such a roster spot and how they in fact went $29 or $30 in the auction. Now I want to walk you through how I approach this with pitching, in hopes that it helps you with any final draft prep you have as we head into these final days before the regular season.

The foundation of my approach is still the same: look at the skills, not the names. I find I allow too many biases to come into play if I solely focus on the player name rather than what that player is doing beyond the box score. Consider the table below, which shows the Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ scores of five pitchers and what their ADP has been over 36 Rotowire Online Championships in the month of March:

These five pitchers are all similar by the pitching modeling metrics but are going anywhere from the 22nd to the 30th round in an OC. Admittedly, Pitcher 4 is hurt to start the season which is why his price is lower than others with similar skills, yet if I were to tell you these pitchers were Dean Kremer, Griffin Canning, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb and Michael Wacha, you may be surprised. Canning has the lowest ADP of the bunch, but if your heart was set on him, you can clearly see you have other options with very similar 2023 pitch modeling skills to consider anywhere from one to seven rounds later. Kremer has the best fastball Stuff+ score of the quintet if that is your desired quality, while Lynn has the best sinker and cutter score of the group. The experience of carrying Lynn on my AL LABR roster last season scarred me, but darn if this very data did not lead me to taking him in the 28th round of a 15-team home league this past weekend:

The pitch modeling stuff that Eno Sarris and Max Bay introduced last year (a primer on that can be found here) is something I only began including in my draft prep last season, but it has now become a staple in both my writing and overall analysis. After all, how much fun is it to look for potential sleepers by skill when you see that Graham Ashcraft had the highest Stuff+ score of all starting pitchers last season and how his skills (not results!) line up with Shohei Ohtani's efforts on the mound:

I would obviously 100% advocate taking Ashcraft over Ohtani for a pitching roster spot this season, but this is the kind of information I use to group players, break ties or attempt to unearth late round dart throws on upside. Ashcraft had an ADP of 355 in March and is going later than all but Alex Cobb in the first group yet his stuff is decidedly better than anyone else in the group. Would I consider taking Ashcraft in the 30th round? You betcha!

Let's go further and look at another group of seven pitchers who each grade out with Stuff+ of at least 115 while also registering 100 or higher in both Location+ and Pitching+ while comparing their ADPs in March:

Seven pitchers, with similar pitch modeling scores, going anywhere from the late first round to late in the 13th round. These pitchers, in order, are Hunter Greene, Bobby Miller, Tyler Glasnow, Gerrit Cole, Nick Pivetta, Bryce Miller and Grayson Rodriguez. The recent Cole injury aside, this is a big reason why I feel comfortable forgoing early pitching prices in many drafts and fishing in the early teens rounds because the upside is there in guys such as Greene, Pivetta and Miller, allowing me to chase other needs early in the draft. Perhaps you, too, will view Pivetta in a different light after seeing how he grades out here and why one Rays official once told Peter Gammons in 2021 that, "we think Pivetta could be another Glasnow."

This next one may open even more eyes because at a pitch modeling level, these two pitchers are extremely similar yet note the ADP gap between the two:

Say hello to Kevin Gausman and Taj Bradley. Ironically, both have battled issues this spring with Bradley leaving Tuesday's outing before it began with tightness in his pectoral muscle. The pectoral muscle is connected to the shoulder last I listened to Schoolhouse Rock, so there is some concern there, but this is another indicator of the potential Bradley has if he can continue his development. 

Are we having fun yet? How about this trio of pitchers and the disparity in their ADP despite rather similar 2023 pitch modeling data:

Pitcher one is the latest market crush known as Cole Ragans, who is gone before the 8th round, but there are Brandon Pfaadt and Nestor Cortes with similar pitch modeling profiles sitting there in the 16th to 19th round. Their better team contexts could help them get the wins that Ragans may struggle to garner with Kansas City and propel the value of the latter two over the talented Royals lefty. 

The bar for relievers is a bit higher because their stuff is simply nastier by nature because of the limited exposure and max effort for most of their outings. Here are three relievers with similar pitch modeling, yet only one of them is locked in as an undisputed closer as we head into the season:

Emmanuel Clase has the role in Cleveland and is being drafted in the 4th to 5th round because of that fact and his track record the past few seasons. Ryan Helsley likely has the job in St. Louis, but the persistent rumblings on Oliver Marmol's commitment to him push his draft stock in to the 8th or 9th round. Lastly, Ryan Pressly lost his job when the Astros decided they had to bring Josh Hader back to the organization, yet Pressly's profile is right there with the other two mainly on the strength of his non-fastball pitches. It is clear Pressly is setting up Hader in Houston this season, but these skills will play up in any capacity and are why he's posted a K-BB of at least 20 percent each of the past six seasons. 

If relievers who showcase great stuff but struggle with location or overall pitchability are your thing, there are a few interesting pitchers in this profile. I was able to find a few relievers with Stuff+ scored of at least 105, but with Location+ and Pitching+ scores under 100:

Alex Lange has an awesome breaking ball, but the rest of his pitches lag behind and his command of those pitches was literally all over the place in 2023. Jose Leclerc got better as the season wore on, but command was never his strong suit. However, notice that Lucas Erceg has yet to be drafted in a RotoWire OC this month. Oakland has already said they want to build Mason Miller into the closer role but has not given any such timeline for Miller's ascension into the role. Erceg, meanwhile, has the raw stuff with an above average two-seamer and slider, but he's struggled with command throughout his professional career. The only difference between Lange, Leclerc and Erceg is the team context situation. All three are in the hunt for saves to begin the season, yet one of them is going undrafted despite having similar skills. The likelihood of your 30th-round selection sticking on your roster into June is small, so why not take a chance on someone like Erceg. AL-Only fantasy managers should absolutely be interested in Erceg should saves fall his way. 

Finally, relievers who have scores below 100 in all three categories are risky assets to put on your roster, yet there is one going in the top 100 while others with similar profiles are going later:

There is a gap of 275+ in ADP between Alexis Diaz and Hector Neris because one has the closer role and one does not. Yet, there is little difference in the 2023 pitch modeling profiles of these two pitchers and Diaz is the only projected closer I am able to find who is below 100 in all three categories. His two pitch approach has a 114 Stuff+ score on his fastball, but a 75 Stuff+ on his slider, and that is his entire bag. It has been good enough so far to allow him to strike out 31.2 percent of the batters he has faced while holding them to a .158 batting average, but the 12.8 percent walk rate reminds us of his risks as well. Every year, some higher-ranked closer surprisingly falls from the ranks because of performance struggles, and one who has just one above-average pitch and struggles with their overall command would appear to be warning signs.

At the end of the day, team context rules the day. I am not advocating for you to take pitchers simply based on superior pitch modeling because a lesser pitcher on a better team is likely to get more wins. Additionally, having the closer role now is a leg up in a bullpen because it is tougher to earn the job than it is to lose the job in many cases. If you would like to dig further into this pitch modeling, please read the aforementioned primer or hop over to the Fangraphs leaderboard and have fun with it. I will tell you that I have added this data to my own draft day view and use it as decision points in the draft or auction as well, especially in the end game when I am hunting for late round or dollar upside.