Farm Futures: Noteworthy MiLB Assignments

Alright, Triple-A, Double-A, High-A and Single-A leagues are all underway! Every relevant prospect should be listed at their proper level and all reported prospect injuries have been written up.

Teams are setting up their prospects' 2025 seasons with this first assignment. In some cases it will be an aggressive assignment designed to test a prospect's readiness, and in other cases, it's an easy assignment to a level the player has already had success at in order to just ease them into action before a potential promotion in the coming weeks. I discussed some of the more noteworthy assignments with Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline on last week's podcast:

Here is the written, extended version of that discussion, as I tried to provide commentary about all the assignments I thought were particularly noteworthy. 

Aggressive Assignments

While not a minor-league assignment, Cam Smith (HOU) making the Opening Day roster was probably the most surprising assignment for a prospect relative to pre-spring expectations. His rise up the prospect rankings on the spring update had nothing to do with expected fantasy value early this season -- I didn't draft him on any redraft teams -- but just the fact that I had his MLB ETA set for 2026 on the January update and he made the 2025 Opening Day roster says it all regarding his ascension. 

Tyler Soderstrom has arguably been the story of the early MLB season, while Nick Kurtz (ATH), who was assigned to Triple-A Las Vegas, has been the story of the early minor-league season (four HR in eight games). They both play first base and Brent Rooker has only started at designated hitter this year, so the A's aren't tipping their hand as to how they'll make the pieces fit. Soderstrom has a 72nd percentile sprint speed, so maybe he'd be the best bet to play a passable corner outfield. Kurtz's assignment to Triple-A is notable, as all the other top college hitters from the 2024 draft class (aside from Cam Smith), were assigned to Double-A.

Luke Keaschall (MIN) being fully recovered from Tommy John surgery (half his starts have come at second base) and assigned to Triple-A St. Paul is notable. He projects to be Minnesota's second baseman of the future, so if he has the same success at Triple-A that he had at High-A (187 wRC+) and Double-A (138 wRC+) last year, he could be up and playing every day this summer.

Tre' Morgan (TB) was pushed aggressively to Triple-A Durham, although he is sidelined right now with a quad injury. Xavier Isaac (elbow) and Will Simpson (TB) were ready for Double-A, so it made sense for Tampa Bay to push Morgan to Triple-A, as he has the hit tool to keep up even if he probably won't get to much power at that level this year. Morgan's elite first base defense also makes him an easy prospect to push.

I've been the low man on Justin Crawford (PHI) for a while, and I don't think the Phillies did him any favors with the push to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after just 40 games and a .121 ISO at Double-A. Prior to this season, he'd logged groundball rates north of 60 percent while hitting more balls to the opposite field than the pull side, and so far he has a 70 percent groundball rate at Triple-A. With his current approach, there's a very clear cap on his offensive upside and a chance big-league pitchers just overpower him.

Hagen Smith (CHW) was sent to Double-A Birmingham -- the most aggressive assignment for any pitcher in the 2024 draft class. His org. mate and double-up arrow riser on the spring update, Grant Taylor (CHW), was also assigned to Birmingham after just four starts at Single-A and zero starts at High-A. That Double-A rotation is stacked, and the White Sox rotation has a chance to be pretty exciting in a year or two. Smith and Taylor each have a chance to finish the year as top-three pitching prospects, and Smith has a chance to be up in the majors late in the season, although I expect them both to debut in 2026.

Nestor German (BAL) and Michael Forret (BAL) were reportedly assigned to Double-A Chesapeake, but the Forret reporting was clearly incorrect, as he's already pitched for High-A Aberdeen, and German is also still listed on the High-A roster. I just wanted to clarify those two situation since I wrote notes about them being assigned to Double-A.

The Padres continue to push Ethan Salas (SD), as he's at Double-A San Antonio after hitting .206 with a 75 wRC+ in 111 games at High-A. He's still just 18, so there's no objective reason to expect him to be even league average as a hitter at Double-A. This is a situation where Salas' defense is already big-league caliber and his bat likely belongs at High-A or Single-A. However, if Salas were to have early success (getting to power while controlling the zone) at Double-A, that would be very meaningful and would signal a post-hype breakout. 

My next article will be my annual Relief Pitching Prospect Rankings (my favorite article to write all season), and Luis Gastelum (STL), who was assigned to Double-A Springfield, will figure into the Cardinals section. He never pitched at High-A but struck out 70 in 48 innings at Single-A and has one of the best changeups in the minors.

It was initially reported that Josue De Paula (LAD) was heading to Double-A Tulsa, which would have been really exciting, but he's actually back with High-A Great Lakes, which is a more obvious assignment after he managed the zone there but failed to consistently get to his plus raw power in games.

The Mariners have a loaded High-A Everett roster, with most of the high-profile assignees likely to get the bump to Double-A at some point this summer. Tai Peete (SEA) is the baby of the group, and should come with the lowest expectations after he struck out 30.7 percent of the time at Single-A Modesto. However, if Peete were to mash at High-A while adjusting to his new position in center field, he could finish the year as a top 50 prospect.

A pair of hard-throwing AL East arms -- Juan Valera (BOS) to High-A Greenville and Carlos Lagrange (NYY) to High-A Hudson Valley -- were aggressively assigned. With Valera, it's a chance to fulfill high preseason expectations and ascend to being a top-100 prospect after making just seven starts at Single-A Salem last year. With Lagrange, it's either a sign that he really improved his strike throwing over the offseason (18.8 BB% at Single-A last year) and is ready to potentially force his way back onto the top 400 as a power starter, or it's a sign that the Yankees are close to pulling the plug on his development as a starter and give him a chance to be an effectively wild reliever.

Chase Burns (CIN), a top 50 prospect, was given a comfy assignment to High-A Dayton and Jurrangelo Cijntje (SEA), a top-150 prospect, was given an obvious assignment to High-A Everett. However, these 2024 draftees were also assigned to High-A, and I would consider successful starts to their campaigns to be reasons to move them up or onto the top 400 rankings: Jonathan Santucci (NYM) to High-A Brooklyn; Ben Hess (NYY) to High-A Hudson Valley; Bryce Cunningham (NYY) to High-A Hudson Valley; Daniel Eagen (ARI) to High-A Hillsboro; Gage Jump (ATH) to High-A Lansing; Chris Cortez (LAA) to High-A Tri-City

I think most people fully anticipated that Jesus Made (MIL) would be assigned to Single-A Carolina, and while Luis Pena (MIL) also skipping over the Arizona Complex League to join him on the Mudcats wasn't overly surprising, it was notable, as he follows the same path as Yophery Rodriguez (BOS) and Luis Lara (MIL) in past years. Pena does everything well except hit for over-the-fence power, but if he starts doing that this season, he could be a massive riser, and he'll rise anyway if he just gets to modest pop while being better than league average at the plate.

From the 2024 prep pitching class, Ryan Sloan (SEA) and Braylon Doughty (CLE) getting assigned to Single-A wasn't surprising, but the Twins assigning Dasan Hill (MIN) to Single-A Fort Myers, where he's already turning heads, is notable. The Padres sending Kash Mayfield (SD) and Boston Bateman (SD) wasn't surprising, given the organization's track record, but it's notable that they'll immediately have a chance to increase their stock.

Soft Landing Spots

Christian Moore (LAA) was sent to Double-A Rocket City rather than Triple-A Salt Lake, which makes sense given that he's an East Coast/SEC kid. Kyren Paris, who was ineligible for the top 400 due to 45+ days on the active roster but is a must-add wherever he's still available, emerging at the big-league level is a wrinkle that those rostering Moore in 2025 draft-and-hold leagues probably didn't see coming. If Paris is playing second base and Luis Rengifo is playing third base and they're both hitting, we might not see Moore anytime soon.

Gavin Cross (KC) had a great spring and seems like he could be the Royals' right fielder of the future with 15-25 or maybe even 20/20 upside as early as 2026, but he was given one of the weaker assingments on the board -- going back to Double-A Northwest Arkansas despite logging a 115 wRC+ over 101 games there a season ago.

Enrique Bradfield (BAL), one of the best defensive center fielders in the minors, could have gone to Triple-A Norfolk after logging a 133 wRC+ in 27 games for Double-A Bowie last year, but he'll head to Double-A Chesapeake to start the year due to Jud Fabian getting center field starts at Triple-A. 

Ryan Clifford (NYM) was one of the best power hitters at the Double-A level as a 20-year-old last year, but he is back at Double-A Binghamton to begin the 2025 campaign. He should put up monster numbers as he awaits his first test at Triple-A.

Spencer Jones (NYY) changed his swing for the second offseason in a row, and he'll open the year at Double-A Somerset for the second year in a row. He would need to get his strikeout rate into the mid-20s for me to reward a strong performance, and I will be expecting Triple-A arms to expose him if he's given that chance.

Joe Mack (MIA), who had a 129 wRC+ with 22 home runs in 112 games at Double-A while playing good defense behind the plate last year is heading back to Pensacola. He'll presumably get the bump to Triple-A when Agustin Ramirez (MIA) gets the bump to the big leagues in the coming weeks.

Some pitchers who were assigned to Double-A that I think could have been pushed to Triple: Steven Zobac (KC) to Double-A Northwest Arkansas; Brandyn Garcia (SEA) to Double-A Arkansas; Nolan McLean (NYM) to Double-A Binghamton; Robby Snelling (SD) to Double-A Pensacola; Drue Hackenberg (ATL) to Double-A Columbus; Tekoah Roby (STL) to Double-A Springfield; Sam Aldegheri (LAA) to Double-A Rocket City. With Zobac, Garcia, McLean, Snelling and Hackenberg, I think their teams just wanted to get them off to nice easy starts before getting the bump to Triple-A in a few weeks, but with Roby and Aldegheri, I think their teams know they don't have the goods to have success at Triple-A.

Max Clark (DET) getting sent back to High-A West Michigan wasn't surprising, but it's worth noting he's a level below classmate Walker Jenkins (MIN) and Clark should be expected to have a great run against High-A pitching before presumably getting the bump to Double-A in a month or two.

I wasn't surprised to see Lazaro Montes (SEA) get the soft landing spot back at High-A Everett, where he struck out 29.6 percent of the time in 51 games last year, and I will discount his performance until he's facing Double-A pitching. However, I was pretty surprised to see Michael Arroyo (SEA) back at Everett, as he had a 155 wRC+ over 60 games there a season ago. Any struggles from Arroyo would be concerning and I'd expect him to absolutely mash.

Thomas White (MIA) dominated over 62 innings for High-A Beloit last year, but he's been sent back to the Midwest League, where he should be expected to dominate again until he's promoted to Double-A Pensacola, where we'll be able to properly evaluate how good his command is.

Braden Montgomery (CHW) will ease into his pro career and his new organization at Single-A Kannapolis. Expect monster numbers from Montgomery at least until he gets up to Double-A with the rest of his peers.

Trey Yesavage (TOR) was assigned to Single-A Dunedin rather than High-A Vancouver for geographical reasons. He should put up silly numbers against Single-A hitters before heading North when the weather warms up.

Sammy Stafura (CIN) got a really soft landing spot back with Single-A Daytona, where he played 77 games last year, after similarly toolsy and aged players like Brandon Winokur (MIN) and Tai Peete (SEA) got the bump to High-A. I really like Stafura but a strong start back in the Florida State League won't tell us much.

A fun game to play with fellow prospectors is to rank your favorite Rays pitching prospects. Trevor Harrison (TB) would likely slot into most top fives, but he's back at Single-A Charleston, where he made nine starts last year, while Gary Gill Hill, Santiago Suarez, Dylan Lesko and Owen Wild work at High-A Bowling Green. Harrison is more of a high-upside slow-burn type of developmental project, so it makes sense, but it's worth noting he's not rocketing through the system.

I want to believe in a Blake Wolters (KC) post-hype breakout, but he's heading back to Single-A Columbia as a 20-year-old, so I would expect him to have some success there.

Cole Mathis (CHC) will be eased into things at Single-A Myrtle Beach after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Dakota Jordan (SF) is also getting an easy first assignment with Single-A San Jose. Good results at Single-A won't move the needle much for either player when most of their classmates are at High-A and Double-A.

Matt Allan (NYM) and Ty Floyd (CIN) have missed significant time with arm injuries, and they'll be eased into action this year with assignments to Single-A.

Brailer Guerrero (TB) should be ready for Single-A from a talent standpoint, but he's missed so much time with injuries, it's not surprising to see the Rays hold him back in extended spring training until they make their first wave of promotions from Single-A to High-A.

Almost every player from the 2024 J-15 class will not begin the season in full-season ball, and that includes Emil Morales (LAD), who isn't getting the Jesus Made (MIL)/Luis Pena (MIL) treatment.

Some other position players who were held back in extended spring training that I would have liked to have seen pushed to Single-A: Tyson Lewis (CIN), JD Dix (ARI), Ching-Hsien Ko (LAD), Luke Dickerson (WAS), Brando Mayea (NYY), Wyatt Sanford (PIT), Braylin Morel (TEX), Rayner Arias (SF) 

Some pitchers who were held back in extended spring training that I would have liked to have seen pushed to Single-A: Levi Sterling (PIT), David Shields (KC), Joey Oakie (CLE), Chase Mobley (CLE), Trey Gregory-Alford (LAA), Ethan Schiefelbein (DET), Adrian Bohorquez (MIN)

Hitter Absences

Bryce Eldridge (wrist), Samuel Basallo (hamstring), Cam Collier (thumb surgery), Kevin McGonigle (ankle), Angel Genao (sprained shoulder), Xavier Isaac (elbow), Jonny Farmelo (ACL), Chase DeLauter (core muscle surgery), Tre' Morgan (quad), Theo Gillen (calf), Charlie Condon (wrist), Ronny Mauricio (knee), Adrian Del Castillo (shoulder strain), Blake Mitchell (wrist), Mike Boeve (shoulder surgery), Tony Blanco (leg), Kale Fountain (TJS), PJ Morlando (elbow surgery), Chase Harlan (hip surgery), Miguel Bleis (quad), Jeferson Quero (hamstring), Jacob Melton (back), Drew Gilbert (hamstring), Tyler Black (broken hamate), Cobb Hightower (hamstring), Payton Eeles (knee surgery), Drew Romo (finger), Javier Vaz (fingers), Peyton Stovall (hamstring), Josh Kasevich (back), Dominic Keegan (elbow), Jefferson Rojas (hamstring), Gregory Barrios (elbow), Johanfran Garcia (knee), Cooper Bowman (undisclosed), Nacho Alvarez (wrist), Roc Riggio (hand), Alexander Albertus (leg), Zach Cole (oblique), Nehomar Ochoa (undisclosed), Kevin Made (oblique), Cristhian Vaquero (shoulder), Ryan Lasko (undisclosed), Pedro Leon (knee), Noah Miller (meniscus surgery), Victor Mesa (hamstring), Kavares Tears (hamstring), Maui Ahuna (TJS)

Pitcher Absences

Travis Sykora (hip), Alejandro Rosario (TJS), Jack Leiter (blister), Ricky Tiedemann (TJS), Yoniel Curet (shoulder), Luis Perales (TJS), Owen Murphy (TJS), Tink Hence (rib cage strain), Cam Caminiti (forearm tendinitis) Rhett Lowder (elbow), Chase Hampton (TJS), Jose Corniell (TJS), Miguel Ullola (shoulder), Brett Wichrowski (undisclosed), Kendry Rojas (midsection), Sawyer Gipson-Long (TJS), Carlson Reed (back), Cade Cavalli (elbow), Henry Lalane (shoulder surgery), Eriq Swan (building up in EST), Ryan Forcucci (TJS), Brock Selvidge (biceps), Cade Smith (shoulder), Chayce McDermott (lat), Chen-Wei Lin (undisclosed), Mason Adams (TJS), Josh Knoth (TJS), Robert Gasser (TJS), Brandon Barriera (elbow), Landen Maroudis (elbow), Brandon Birdsell (shoulder), C.J. Culpepper (having trouble ramping up), Connor Phillips (shoulder), Thatcher Hurd (TJS), Michael Morales (elbow), Clayton Beeter (shoulder), Trystan Vrieling (hip), Joe Elbis (undisclosed), Aiden May (arthroscopic elbow surgery), Brady Basso (shoulder), L.P. Langevin (lat strain), Wen Hui Pan (TJS), Jake Bennett (elbow), Cooper Hjerpe (undisclosed), Carter Holton (TJS), Davis Polo (undisclosed), Brody McCullough (forearm), David Hagaman (internal brace), Daniel Espino (shoulder), Reggie Crawford (shoulder surgery), Zach Brzykcy (quad), Yu-Min Lin (building up in EST), Adam Macko (knee), Teddy McGraw (elbow), Sean Sullivan (hip), Blake Walston (TJS), Christian McGowan (TJS), Blake Larson (TJS), Juan Carela (TJS), Cade Kuehler (TJS), Cole Miller (TJS), Julian Aguiar (TJS), Francis Pena (held back in EST), Ty Madden (rotator cuff strain), Zach Swanson (TJS), Yujanyer Herrera (TJS), Hunter Cranton (concussion), Ky Bush (TJS), Angel Bastardo (TJS), Tyler Mattison (TJS), Drew Gray (shoulder), Barrett Kent (undisclosed), Tyler Gough (TJS), Maddux Bruns (back), Karson Milbrandt (fluid buildup in arm), Ashton Izzi (oblique), Cole Phillips (TJS)