This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As the MLB season has just begun, you may still be getting into the groove, or maybe this is your first year playing DFS. Sundays are known for having all 30 teams in action, mostly in the afternoon. In the world of DFS, usually not all 15 games are including on the slate. This is true for DraftKings, as only the early afternoon matchups beginning in the 1 p.m. EDT and 2 p.m. EDT hours are included. That still gives us 10 games worth of players to choose from, so here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Kodai Senga, NYM at MIA ($9,200): Senga was the big Japanese pitcher available this offseason, and the Mets snagged him. He was dominant in Japan, and several Japanese hurlers before him have successfully made the jump to MLB. Senga is also 30, so he's proven more on the mound than other new arrivals. The Marlins would really have to improve offensively to be a threat after finishing 28th in runs scored last year and produced a sub-.300 team OBP as a team.
Graham Ashcraft, CIN vs. PIT ($7,000): Ashcraft posted a 4.89 ERA in 19 starts as a rookie, but with a 4.20 FIP. He's added a new slider that did well for him this spring, and even hit 100 MPH with his fastball. Maybe Ashcraft is primed for a step forward in his sophomore season? Facing the Pirates should help, as they ranked 27th in offense during 2022 and didn't improve their roster.
Top Targets
Obviously, regression is coming for Aaron Judge ($6,400). That's what happens after you hit 62 home runs. However, his career slash line is .284/.394/.584, and that's no fluke. What may be an anomaly is Ross Stripling only allowing 0.80 home runs per nine innings last year after giving up over two in each of the previous two campaigns. It also doesn't help in a new home park given his 2.47 home ERA last year combined with a 3.60 road mark.
Maybe Adley Rutschman ($5,300) didn't look like a star as a rookie, but he definitely impressed. And he was very impressive when facing a righty with an .889 OPS in those matchups. The catcher may be a switch-hitter, but clearly he had a preference in 2022. Tanner Houck is a righty, and he's only in the starting rotation due to injuries. And he made 32 appearances last year, but only four of those were starts.
Bargain Bats
When a lefty is on the mound, you can count on Yandy Diaz ($3,900) being in the lineup for the Rays - and likely even leading off. That's ideal for his skill set as he doesn't have much power, but he got on base at a .401 clip in 2022. Lefty Joey Wentz is starting for the Tigers, and he didn't allow many home runs in his first seven MLB starts, but still managed a 3.54 FIP.
On the counting stat front, Lane Thomas ($2,900) registered 17 home runs and eight stolen bases in 2022. And since 2021, he's produced an .837 OPS versus lefties. Southpaw Jared Shuster will be making his MLB debut on Sunday. This is a smart matchup for Atlanta to give a debuting pitcher, but Shuster struggled to a 4.25 ERA in Triple-A last season.
Stacks to Consider
Twins at Royals (Brad Keller): Byron Buxton ($6,000), Carlos Correa ($5,600), Nick Gordon ($2,800)
Once a pitcher posts an ERA over 5.00 in two consecutive campaigns, they become a target for a stack. Keller has done that, and he also effectively doesn't strike batters out. He's only managed 6.75 strikeouts per nine innings in his career. Get some Twins in your lineup!
Buxton is healthy, even if we have to hold our breath every day hoping that remains true. And he boasts incredible power, as in a slugging percentage of .558 the previous four seasons. Correa is a steady bat with a career .279/.357/.478 slash line. In his first season with the Twins, he hit .291 with 22 homers. Gordon is a lefty who's rarely used against southpaws, but he can hit righties considering his .793 OPS against them.
Brewers at Cubs (Jameson Taillon): Willy Adames ($4,900), Christian Yelich ($4,500), Rowdy Tellez ($3,500)
Taillon is with a new team and you may look at his numbers where his homers allowed increased in New York and think this move could be good for him. However, he was decidedly better at home during his time with the Yankees. Over the previous two seasons, Taillon slumped to a 4.89 road ERA. I don't think the move to Wrigley Field is going to turn his career around, so I'll stack against him on Sunday.
Adames has never cared about walking, and last year his average even dipped. He also recorded a career-high 31 home runs to go with 31 doubles. So if Adames' average rebounds, he could be in for a big year. Yelich has lost his power compared to his heyday, but he was also a speedster then and has lost less of that. His 14 homers in 2022 paired with 19 steals. And with the likely increase of swiped bags this season, I could see Yelich grabbing 30. Tellez swings from his heels, but against righties it proved effective in 2022 by slugging .498 with 31 home runs against righties.
