This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As the season has progressed, we've seen more of the Saturday schedule switch to night games - and that remains the case with 10 matchups beginning at 7:05 p.m. EDT. In both season-long and DFS formats, we've reached a tricky part of the year. Teams out of the playoff hunt may turn their focus on younger players in the hopes of determining roles for 2024, while teams reasonably locked into the postseason may be looking to protect the health of their stars - particularly pitchers. Where we can, it makes sense to find the sweet spot of those sides looking to succeed. On the other hand, we don't want to pass up value for the sake of it.
Pitchers
There are three pitchers who stand out above the rest and are valued accordingly. Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) has done a nice job of mixing floor and ceiling with over 20 DK points in nearly all of his starts and has topped 30 in three of his last eight outings. He faces a tough matchup against the Orioles, yet he's performed well against all levels of competition.
Corbin Burnes ($10,300) has struck out at least seven in four of five starts and is getting back on track at a key part of the campaign. The Nationals carry among the league's least potent lineups, though that comes with a low strikeout rate. That makes Burnes more the cash play of the duo, while Glasnow will offer more variance in both directions.
From the top group, we can move comfortably into the middle tiers. Grayson Rodriguez ($7,800) has endured a couple bumpy starts of late, but even those have resulted in double-digit DK performances. The upside is low 20s, which would be a strong performance at his salary. Rodriguez will have to be at his best against the Rays, though isn't likely to be highly rostered and would be a great contrarian start due to his head-to-head against Glasnow.
Sawyer Gipson-Long ($7,500) is an interesting case. He wasn't highly regarded as a prospect, but spiked his strikeout rate in the minors and is now getting a chance in the Detroit rotation. He impressed in his debut and is in a decent position again thanks to a start against the Angels, a team that has waved the white flag on their season. Gipson-Long isn't as cheap as could be hoped for in this situation, yet is someone with high variance worth potentially taking a shot on in larger fields. Kyle Hendricks ($7,200) against the Diamondbacks could be more of a cash game play in the same salary range.
Keaton Winn ($5,900) represents a potential punt play. He starts at Coors Field, which certainly elevates his risk. The Rockies lineup is so poor that they only rank ninth in wOBA in home games in 2023. Winn has stretched back out to a full starter's workload and has the potential to outdeliver his value.
Top Hitters
When Willy Adames ($4,400) produces, it comes in bunches. He has a chance for a big night against Trevor Williams, who's served up 2.2 HR/9 this season and has among the lowest strikeout rates of pitchers taking the mound Saturday night.
There aren't a lot of obvious matchups to exploit for hitters on the slate, but Coors (despite comments about the Rockies' relative struggles) remains a place to target bats. We'll go to the away team and J.D. Davis ($4,100) as Kyle Freeland only has a 14.1 K% for the season and is pitching in the park that rewards the most contact in the league.
Value Bats
MJ Melendez's ($3,300) season-long line looks underwhelming, yet he's quietly produced a solid second half (.202 ISO, .347 wOBA). He primarily bats cleanup for the Royals and draws a matchup against J.P. France, who's given at least one homer in each of his last five starts.
Andy Ibanez ($3,000) has a few things going for him, including him being projected to hit second in the Tigers' order. He's also hit lefties well across his career (.201 ISO, .338 wOBA) and faces an unimposing pitcher in Tyler Anderson.
Stacks to Consider
Brewers vs. Nationals (Trevor Williams): Christian Yelich ($5,100), William Contreras ($5,100), Carlos Santana ($3,300)
Williams' struggles across the year have already been highlighted, but things have only gotten worse for him by allowing five or more earned runs in five of 10 starts since the All-Star break. The Brewers don't boast the most overwhelming lineup, though they should be able to take advantage of the matchup.
Phillies vs. Cardinals (Miles Mikolas): Kyle Schwarber ($5,600), Trea Turner ($6,300), Bryce Harper ($5,900)
Speaking of poor recent pitching, Mikolas also fits the description. The risk in his profile due to lack of strikeouts has come through as he's surrendered at least five earned runs from three of his last five starts and at least three in all of them. With both Turner and Harper heating up, the top of the Phillies' order in particular is dangerous.
