This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We're onto the second full week of the 2023 MLB season and we're starting to see teams at different points in their rotation squaring off against each other, or at least playing on the same day. That gives us different types of builds to work with and a more interesting slate to play. On Monday specifically, we have eight games on the main slate, which kicks off at 7:10 pm ET. As a note, there's also a four-game slate that kicks off at 6:40 pm ET that gives access to games not included with the later matchups.
Pitchers
There's a trio of aces that stand out from the rest, in Max Scherzer ($10,400), Luis Castillo ($9,600) and Julio Urias ($9,400). Based on the combination of matchup and price, Urias is the choice of the group as he gets a road matchup against the Giants. The Giants have been a tough lineup for opposing pitchers early in the season, but they have struck out at a 28 percent clip – third-highest in the league – and they scored only nine total runs in a three-game home set against the Royals after their hot offensive start came on the road.
Andrew Heaney ($7,900) had a miserable opening outing of the season and carries a lot of risk based on his home run problem (1.7 HR/9 in 2022). However, he also had the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the slate in 2022 with a mark of 35.5 percent, giving him an excellent ceiling if he can keep the ball in the yard. He should have a decent chance to do that while squaring off against the Royals.
In roughly the same tier is Zac Gallen ($7,100). He's had a rough start to the season, posting only 9.1 and 6.7 DK points in his two starts, respectively. While far from ideal, he's also had tough matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. His matchup Monday isn't much easier as the Brewers visit Arizona, but as the sixth-cheapest pitcher on the board, his skills (26.9 K%, 3.32 SIERA in 2022) outweigh the risk.
Bryce Elder ($6,600) is the punt play of the day. He has a limited strikeout ceiling and an elevated walk rate based on his 2022 results, but he has a forgiving matchup against the Reds at home.
Top Hitters
Zack Greinke remains a respectable pitcher despite nearly completely losing the ability to miss bats. That high contact rate but lack of big mistakes makes him an ideal pitcher to find one-off targets to play against him rather than stacks. With that in mind, Adolis Garcia ($4,700) is a nice option in tournament contests, while Corey Seager ($4,800) is a nice player to build through in cash games.
Eugenio Suarez ($4,400) has turned back the clock to 2016 early this season, featuring a more contact-heavy approach at the plate rather than one focused on power. That's been okay for his DK production (7.5 ppg) early on, but the hope will be that he turns in his first home run of the season against Drew Smyly, who features a flyball-heavy approach that has led to home run problems in recent seasons.
Value Hitters
Patrick Corbin is an easy target Monday, and Mike Trout ($6,100) is likely to be one of the highest-rostered players in contests. Playing Trout is rarely a bad idea, but Luis Rengifo ($3,200) crushed lefties in his breakout 2022 season by posting a .389 wOBA and .255 ISO.
All eyes have been on Jordan Walker ($3,000) early this season, but Alec Burleson ($2,900) has hit primarily second when the Cardinals have faced right-handed pitching. Both he and Walker and are mispriced for the start of their series at Coors Field.
Stacks to Consider
St. Louis Cardinals (German Marquez): Alec Burleson ($2,900), Nolan Arenado ($5,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($5,900)
I often try to avoid listing the most obvious stacks that are likely to generate extremely high roster rates. However, the Cardinals check too many boxes to just ignore Monday. Marquez offers everything you want to stack against, highlighted by a mediocre strikeout rate, high walk rate and high home run rate. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have high-priced options at the top of the order but also have ways to balance out that salary with lower-priced options such as Burleson and Walker. Add in the fact that the game is being played at Coors Field to top things off. The problem is that when a play is this obvious, it's likely to be very highly rostered.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Wade Miley): Ketel Marte ($4,300), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,900), Christian Walker ($3,700)
The Angels are the other extremely obvious team to stack Monday, but since we already discussed one chalky team, we'll shift to a potentially under-rostered lineup here. The feature of Miley's profile is a high groundball rate, which helps him keep home runs in check. On the other hand, there's a lack of swing and miss in his pitching style and he also walked 8.8 percent of batters he faced in 2022. This is a good way to both get different from the field and also find some savings after rostering an expensive and popular stack such as St. Louis or the Angels.
