A few weeks ago, I raised awareness of the fact the league was running wild this spring and promised to revisit the topic as camps wrapped up before the regular season kicked off. That is what I am doing with this week's installment.
I know I'm not the only one who adheres to the original rules which dictated drafting the weekend after Opening Day, as I have a draft on Opening Day and another one on Sunday, making this information actionable for myself, my leaguemates who subscribe here, and anyone else who is drafting this weekend. It is also actionable for everyone else who has wrapped up their drafts this season and must now plan on how to attack this particular scoring category. If this spring is any indication of how the regular season will play out, buckle up.
Halfway through spring games, the league was attempting 2.58 steals per contest, which was the highest rate since the league changed the rules on steals in 2023. It is worth remembering that..
...we have seen a strong correlation between how frequently the league runs in March and how frequently the league runs during the regular season. That correlation drops from 0.82 to 0.5 when looking at a per-team basis and absolutely falls apart at the individual player level.
I look at attempts as a formula of ((SB+CS)/(Total Games/2)) for the league looking to see how many successful or failed attempts are happening per contest. The table below shows the rate for
A few weeks ago, I raised awareness of the fact the league was running wild this spring and promised to revisit the topic as camps wrapped up before the regular season kicked off. That is what I am doing with this week's installment.
I know I'm not the only one who adheres to the original rules which dictated drafting the weekend after Opening Day, as I have a draft on Opening Day and another one on Sunday, making this information actionable for myself, my leaguemates who subscribe here, and anyone else who is drafting this weekend. It is also actionable for everyone else who has wrapped up their drafts this season and must now plan on how to attack this particular scoring category. If this spring is any indication of how the regular season will play out, buckle up.
Halfway through spring games, the league was attempting 2.58 steals per contest, which was the highest rate since the league changed the rules on steals in 2023. It is worth remembering that..
...we have seen a strong correlation between how frequently the league runs in March and how frequently the league runs during the regular season. That correlation drops from 0.82 to 0.5 when looking at a per-team basis and absolutely falls apart at the individual player level.
I look at attempts as a formula of ((SB+CS)/(Total Games/2)) for the league looking to see how many successful or failed attempts are happening per contest. The table below shows the rate for the seasons since 2021:
YEAR
SB FREQUENCY
2021
1.64
2022
1.54
2023 (new rules)
2.18
2024
2.25
2025
2.31
2026
2.58
The numbers after the conclusion of spring games on March 22 saw the league finish at 2.56 attempts per contest. The high rate held up even as players made their way back from the amazing World Baseball Classic, meaning the rate increased nearly 11 percent from last spring. 18 of 30 teams ran more frequently in 2026 spring games than 2025 spring games, with both colors of Sox doing the heavy lifting for the league:
| TEAM | G | SB | CS | Attempts | 2026 per game rate | 2025 per game rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 32 | 44 | 16 | 60 | 1.88 | 0.81 | 133% |
| Boston Red Sox | 28 | 53 | 13 | 66 | 2.36 | 1.07 | 121% |
| Miami Marlins | 27 | 45 | 10 | 55 | 2.04 | 1.13 | 80% |
| Houston Astros | 28 | 41 | 10 | 51 | 1.82 | 1.03 | 76% |
| Colorado Rockies | 29 | 45 | 22 | 67 | 2.31 | 1.39 | 66% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 31 | 39 | 10 | 49 | 1.58 | 0.97 | 63% |
| Atlanta Braves | 29 | 28 | 9 | 37 | 1.28 | 0.81 | 58% |
| Athletics | 31 | 26 | 6 | 32 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 32% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 29 | 22 | 6 | 28 | 0.97 | 0.73 | 32% |
| Texas Rangers | 28 | 24 | 7 | 31 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 31% |
| Minnesota Twins | 29 | 32 | 6 | 38 | 1.31 | 1.00 | 31% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 29 | 33 | 9 | 42 | 1.45 | 1.17 | 24% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 29 | 24 | 1 | 25 | 0.86 | 0.70 | 24% |
| San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 8 | 37 | 1.28 | 1.03 | 24% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 28 | 19 | 5 | 24 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 18% |
| New York Mets | 27 | 18 | 3 | 21 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 15% |
| San Diego Padres | 31 | 28 | 7 | 35 | 1.13 | 1.03 | 9% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 28 | 23 | 6 | 29 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 4% |
The White Sox ran frequently as a team, and it's notable that both Luisangel Acuna as well as Korey Lee each attempted at least five steals, successfully converting four of them. Lee is going to be pressed into early duty with Kyle Teel on the mend from his hamstring injury, so a handful of steals would be ideal since he doesn't offer much else at the plate. Conversely, Colson Montgomery did not even attempt a steal in his 13 times on base, which included 10 singles and three walks.
One third of Boston's 66 attempts came from Braiden Ward, who is opening the season in Triple-A. Most of Boston's speedster regulars were on WBC duty, so we don't have a good read on the individual players, but Alex Cora was certainly committed to pushing the running game this spring, and the change from Alex Bregman to Caleb Durbin at third base should only help the roster stay in motion in the regular season. Boston was third in the American League with 139 steals and sixth overall, so it would take some serious aggressiveness for them to move much higher as a team.
The 12 teams who showed a decline from last spring are below, but the best news might be the Nationals, who remain in line with where Dave Martinez had the club last spring. Yes, I'm talking to all you Nasim Nunez fans:
| TEAM | G | SB | CS | Attempts | 2026 per game rate | 2025 per game rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 18 | 5 | 23 | 0.79 | 1.47 | -46% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 30 | 26 | 2 | 28 | 0.93 | 1.57 | -40% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 29 | 16 | 5 | 21 | 0.72 | 1.21 | -40% |
| Detroit Tigers | 26 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 0.54 | 0.77 | -30% |
| Kansas City Royals | 29 | 31 | 10 | 41 | 1.41 | 2.03 | -30% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 29 | 21 | 5 | 26 | 0.90 | 1.21 | -26% |
| Chicago Cubs | 30 | 32 | 4 | 36 | 1.20 | 1.50 | -20% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 43 | 8 | 51 | 1.82 | 2.26 | -19% |
| New York Yankees | 30 | 29 | 8 | 37 | 1.23 | 1.48 | -17% |
| Seattle Mariners | 31 | 26 | 5 | 31 | 1.00 | 1.19 | -16% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 29 | 24 | 5 | 29 | 1.00 | 1.16 | -14% |
| Washington Nationals | 28 | 37 | 12 | 49 | 1.75 | 1.77 | -1% |
Terry Francona might be a human restrictor plate on Elly De La Cruz because the formerly led-footed manager has gotten cautious recently. Meanwhile, Detroit might be playing Earl Weaver ball this season and waiting for the three-run home run rather than trying to steal bases as they have been the most passive team on the basepaths this spring.
Finally, the new managers this season have for the most part outpaced their predecessors, save for Craig Albernaz and his softball roster in Baltimore:
| TEAM | G | SB | CS | Attempts | 2026 per game rate | 2025 per game rate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 29 | 45 | 22 | 67 | 2.31 | 1.39 | 66% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 31 | 39 | 10 | 49 | 1.58 | 0.97 | 63% |
| Atlanta Braves | 29 | 28 | 9 | 37 | 1.28 | 0.81 | 58% |
| Texas Rangers | 28 | 24 | 7 | 31 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 31% |
| Minnesota Twins | 29 | 32 | 6 | 38 | 1.31 | 1.00 | 31% |
| San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 8 | 37 | 1.28 | 1.03 | 24% |
| San Diego Padres | 31 | 28 | 7 | 35 | 1.13 | 1.03 | 9% |
| Washington Nationals | 28 | 37 | 12 | 49 | 1.75 | 1.77 | -1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 29 | 21 | 5 | 26 | 0.90 | 1.21 | -26% |
I feel confident in stating we will see steals surge again after the stolen base totals fell by nearly five percent from 2024. We could very well exceed the record set in 2024 based off the tea leaves we have seen this spring. I am particularly buoyed by the fact the new managers have been particularly aggressive so far.
The regular season is finally here, and I could not be happier to have it back. Best of luck this season with your leagues, unless we're in one together!
