Collette Calls: Plans B and Beyond

I am an auction guy at heart, but alas, my auction-format leagues don't kick off until March 1st, so I'm still stuck in snake-draft season. My affinity for auctions dates back to my start in roto play in the early 90s, when my first ever roto league was an NL-Only home league with some people at UCF. I don't even recall my first snake draft, and it may have even been as late as my first time in NFBC in 2009. 

Snake drafts tend to be done online in baseball these days, so it's a luxury to be able to do one in person as I did this past weekend when I drove down to the Atlanta area (curse you, I-85!) to join the Waffle House Area Roto Fantasy (WHARF) league. WHARF is one of the 11 different satellite leagues started up by Justin Mason and the late great Lawr Michaels, who chartered the Bay Area Roto Fantasy (BARF) league years ago. Mason encouraged other geographical areas to join in on the fun and compete in the overall standings. It was a bit weird to have 13 of the 15 guys live in one place while we were all drafting on our laptops in the NFBC draft room, but the table talk was immensely better than anything we would have done in the online chat room and I am already looking forward to next year's draft.

The approach I've always taken with snake drafts and the associated ADPs is taken straight from Hector Barbossa's sage advice in Pirates of the Caribbean:

This is especially true in home leagues, because it takes just one person implementing a specific strategy to alter plans, and if two people get into the same tug-of-war over similar strategies, those plans get altered even further. It took just 36 picks into the draft when some idiot (raises hand) took Framber Valdez 20 picks ahead of his ADP because said idiot wanted the pitcher he said would win the AL Cy Young in his bold prediction series. Truth be told, I wanted George Kirby for that spot, but Kirby went with the first pick of the third round, so I debated between Valdez and Pablo Lopez in that spot. I have Lopez in two other leagues already and wanted to diversify my risk profile in my NFBC leagues, so I went with my gut rather than what the ADP told me I should do. Five picks later, someone else took Kyle Schwarber 56 picks ahead of his ADP and by pick 50, we had five different players going at least a full round ahead of their ADP for the month of February. Once we got through the first 100 picks, 14 players had been taken at least a full round ahead of their ADP.

The larger point here is ADP is only going to get you so far in a draft, so you should have backup plans at positions if the player you're targeting for a certain round or position falls off the table far sooner than his ADP predicted. I would like to look at each hitting position as well as by skill, using the ATC projections from Ariel Cohen, in search of opportunities later in the draft should your preferred player at that position come off the board earlier than expected. I will do the same with starting pitchers and relief pitchers next week before heading down to First Pitch Florida for the AL LABR draft and some spring training action in Bradenton and Clearwater. 

Catchers

Adley Rutschman leads the catching ranks and is one of six catchers going in the first 8 rounds:

If Rutschman is your targeted pick in the third round and someone else jumps you, you can wait until the next round or two and grab the younger Contreras brother, who has arguably better standard roto format projections than Rutschman but is going nearly 25 picks later. The same could be said for being sniped on Smith and falling back to Diaz. Lastly, there is always old reliable Perez, who continues to volume his way to production but is understandably a lesser option in OBP leagues. 

The second-tier catchers projected for at least 400 at-bats are not as differentiated as the top tier and are all going rather close together:

I have now ended up with with Heim in two of my three drafts as I don't truly understand the market's dislike for him. I love Raleigh, but that average has a best-case ceiling of .250. Murphy may have the best skills of the bunch, but Travis d'Arnaud isn't going to serve as just the Sunday and getaway day catcher for that club. If you are someone who likes to have two catchers in the first 12 rounds, playing the waiting game could pay off handsomely rather than chasing the highest target by ADP in the top two tiers of catchers.

First Base

I'm choosing to skip the top tier of first baseman only because I feel they are properly arranged, so I'm choosing to start at Christian Walker (the eighth first baseman by ADP) and looking at this position as it's playing out from rounds 6 to 11:

Walker is the most proven of the bunch and his stolen base bonus from first is helping push up his market price. Yet the upside in run production from Casas or Torkelson is there 15 to 30 picks later should you be able to afford their lack of speed. Diaz stands out for those looking for batting average and especially in OBP formats. It's rounds 12 through 20 where I find more flexibility.

Italian Breakfast is a fine cuisine, but I can get very similar numbers in a better lineup if I pivot to Lowe two rounds later. Hoskins has plenty of power upside moving to Milwaukee, but I can get similarly projected production from Vaughn four to five rounds later. Better yet, I could take my chances on Rizzo rebounding from last year's disastrous season, as his projected production isn't that far off from Hoskins' yet his acquisition cost is seven rounds later in the draft. Lastly, while I like Candelario again this season, his projected production is not that different from Josh Bell's, and the dual-position eligibility is not worth the sizable gap in ADP between the two players.

Second Base

The top four at this position are drafted early for a reason, but there are some interesting scenarios in play for the rest of the second baseman going in the first 10 rounds.

McLain has the best mix of youth and ballpark upside here, but if it's 20/20 potential you're chasing and you can live with a batting average risk, Gelof goes several rounds later. Both Kim and Estrada have multi-positional eligibility and similar projected performance, yet there is a four-round difference in their ADP. If someone jumps you on Kim, a very similar profile is there in the later rounds.

The next tier at the position is also rather intriguing as you look for similar production from other options:

There isn't another Arraez at this position, so if you're building around him, you'll have to get your guy. The same could be said for Edman as well, unless you believe Brice Turang or Jose Caballero have some untapped power somewhere in their bat that will push them into double-digit homers. As much as I like Julien this season, the uncertainty of how playing time will be shared in Cincinnati has the marketplace worried enough about India that I'd consider waiting two rounds rather than reaching for Julien. Finally, Gorman and Lowe have similar profiles and predicted production, yet one is going five rounds later than the other. 

Shortstop

You will not find another Bobby Witt Jr, Trea Turner or even Elly De La Cruz, so I'm not going to suggest you attempt to do so, but even this deep position offers some backup plans should your top target get drafted before you get the chance to take him. Let's start with the fourth-ranked shortstop in Francisco Lindor. His ADP has him going in the second round, yet there are two other shortstops going four and eight rounds later who are also projected for at least 20 homers and 20 steals, and one even has a similar batting average:

Admittedly, Lindor has the goods for runs and RBIs, but Cruz is at least in spitting distance of those projections and could end up with a higher season-ending value than Lindor if things go well for him after he missed all but nine games last season with that nasty ankle injury. Volpe is a riskier play with his contact troubles, but the 20/20 profile is certainly there. 

Gunnar Henderson is fun with his upside and dual-position eligibility, but that comes with the tax of him going in around the 2/3 turn in drafts while another player with extremely similar projections is going six rounds later. If someone jumps you on Henderson, fear not, as you'll have the chance to net similar projections around round eight or nine:

If you are just looking for power at shortstop, here is everyone projected for at least 15 homers but fewer than 10 steals after the 10th round:

You can chase the contract-year boost with Adames if you're looking for the most power, or the surrounding-cast support Correa will enjoy in Minnesota, or you can sit back and wait for two guys with similar projections who are some HR/FB variance away from 20 homers who are going in the end game. 

Third Base

I'll skip past players already covered at other positions, but that doesn't change the fact you're not going to find backup plans for Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley or Rafael Devers at this position. They are each first- or second-round selections for good reason. Henderson is the next player at the position, and since we've already looked at the backup option for him, we'll begin by looking for similar projections to Royce Lewis, and like Henderson, there's only one other player with similar projections at the position:

The projected difference in homers and batting average is well within the margin of error, so consider letting someone else exercise a fourth-round selection on Lewis and looking to net Steer in the better ballpark several rounds later. 

If you're just looking for 20+ homers and 80+ RBIs from the hot corner after the fifth round, you have a few options with varying degrees of fantasy risk:

I'm a big advocate of Bregman as outlined in the bold prediction series, but that admittedly hinges somewhat upon adjusting the lineup so that Kyle Tucker hits second and Bregman gets to drive both Tucker and Jose Altuve in. If you miss Bregman in the seventh round, Jung is there in the next round with very similar projections in four of the five categories. Burger is there as the best late power option at the position, but both Muncy and Suarez are there as riskier options with similar run-production profiles later in the draft.

Outfield

I won't even go through the exercise in futility of trying to find a Plan B for Ronald Acuna because the only way you get him is if you have the first overall pick or if someone in your league accidentally clicks the wrong name. The latter situation happened once, which is how Noelvi Marte has a min pick of one and Acuna has a max pick of three, because someone picking second had it on auto-draft. 

Let's say you're looking for an outfielder who can give you 20-25 homers, 8-12 steals and a decent average after the fifth round. The best guy who fits that profile in that range is Bryan Reynolds, but there are some other options if someone else gets there before you do:

These are five players with rather similar projections who are separated by roughly 35 picks on the low and high end of the equation. That Walker price will likely creep up as we get closer to the heart of draft season and he goes on another spring-training tear as he did last year. 

There are some other similar player types which stand out at this position as well:

Lowe was a linchpin of my best fantasy teams last season, but that was because I was able to grab him in the very late parts of the draft or auction. Meanwhile, there are four other names on that list with similar projections who are going anywhere from 40 to nearly 100 picks after him right now. 

Power

ATC has 50 players projected for at least 25 homers, and 26 of those 50 are gone after the first three rounds of a 15-team draft. If you missed out on a desired power bat early, you have other options. Let's say you were hoping to get Pete Alonso but someone sniped you on the Polar Bear. If you construct your build appropriately heading into the sixth round and pick up some other pieces later, you could get very similar run production in Schwarber later:

Admittedly, the variance in Schwarber's batting average since 2019 has been anywhere from the .197 last season to the .266 in 2021, but he has 93 homers over the past two seasons and has used his on-base skills along with his ability to drive himself in to score 208 times over the past two seasons. Alonso has had his own batting-average variance, hitting anywhere from .217 to .271, and that's just over the past two seasons. 

If we look at players projected for 30-39 homers, two players stands out from the pack by ADP:

The aforementioned Burger and newly-signed Soler are the only two players projected for 30+ homers going outside the top 75. I bring this up because power is tougher to find later in drafts, so if you find yourself light on power after five rounds, you should factor in one if not both of these guys into your plans. That is precisely what Team 1 did in WHARF this weekend, taking Soler and Burger on the 10/11 turn after mostly focusing on pitching and catching from picks 3-9.

Speed

41 players are projected to steal at least 20 bases by ATC this season, and 20 of those 41 are off the board before pick 100. If you missed out on some of those top-100 names, you still have options. For example, if Ha-Seong Kim was your desired profile for a middle-infield slot, why not look at Andres Gimenez or Bryson Stott 20-25 picks later?

If you find yourself just looking for any speed later in the draft so you can avoid the complicated build that rostering Esteury Ruiz forces you into, consider these alternatives, all projected for at least 20 steals but fewer than 10 homers:

There is a running joke that YAHOO stands for you always have other options, but that is not how the search engine got its name. The truth is you always have options at the draft table if you focus on the numbers and not the names. As we head into the thick of draft season, start arranging your Plan A, B, C and so on for your roster so you don't find yourself frustrated after missing out on your preferred player, with the confidence his numbers can be found elsewhere.