This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
Stolen bases were all the rage last season, as everyone aside from Daniel Vogelbach and Brendan Rodgers was off and running with the new rules in place. I wrote a few articles last year on the topic, starting in the fall by looking into what batters or pitchers could be impacted by the changes along with a follow-up as to what the season could look like once we saw how teams acted in spring training. I then contributed two more pieces to the story once the season was over, looking at how different managers conducted their running game and finally looking back at just how well spring training data previewed what was to come in the 2023 season as a way to prepare for 2024. I would like to revisit a few of those points as we now prepare for the stateside version of Opening Day 2024.
The league was running aggressively in early spring of 2023, and we saw a rate at the midpoint of March that year with 2.34 attempted steals per game played. That eventually settled to 2.18 by the official end of spring training, but the in-season rate was the highest it had been since 2012 when all was said and done this past regular season:
Season | Spring | Regular | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2.04 | 1.68 | -18% |
2011 | 2.16 | 1.86 | -14% |
2012 | 2.22 | 1.80 | -19% |
2013 | 1.96 | 1.52 | -22% |
2014 | 1.92 | 1.56 | -19% |
2015 | 1.88 | 1.46 | -22% |
2016 | 1.90 | 1.46 | -23% |
2017 | 2.00 | 1.42 | -29% |
2018 | 2.04 | 1.42 |
Stolen bases were all the rage last season, as everyone aside from Daniel Vogelbach and Brendan Rodgers was off and running with the new rules in place. I wrote a few articles last year on the topic, starting in the fall by looking into what batters or pitchers could be impacted by the changes along with a follow-up as to what the season could look like once we saw how teams acted in spring training. I then contributed two more pieces to the story once the season was over, looking at how different managers conducted their running game and finally looking back at just how well spring training data previewed what was to come in the 2023 season as a way to prepare for 2024. I would like to revisit a few of those points as we now prepare for the stateside version of Opening Day 2024.
The league was running aggressively in early spring of 2023, and we saw a rate at the midpoint of March that year with 2.34 attempted steals per game played. That eventually settled to 2.18 by the official end of spring training, but the in-season rate was the highest it had been since 2012 when all was said and done this past regular season:
Season | Spring | Regular | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2.04 | 1.68 | -18% |
2011 | 2.16 | 1.86 | -14% |
2012 | 2.22 | 1.80 | -19% |
2013 | 1.96 | 1.52 | -22% |
2014 | 1.92 | 1.56 | -19% |
2015 | 1.88 | 1.46 | -22% |
2016 | 1.90 | 1.46 | -23% |
2017 | 2.00 | 1.42 | -29% |
2018 | 2.04 | 1.42 | -30% |
2019 | 1.94 | 1.28 | -34% |
2021 | 1.64 | 1.20 | -27% |
2022 | 1.54 | 1.34 | -13% |
2023 | 2.18 | 1.80 | -17% |
What if I were to tell you teams have run even more this Spring Training? This spring (through games on March 25th), the league has attempted 2.24 steals per contest, which would be the highest rate in recent memory. Teams attempted 1,002 stolen bases over the course of the 2023 spring training season in 459 games, but have attempted 1,013 steals in this current Spring Training in 452 contests. Perhaps the league is getting better at controlling the running game, as the 79.0 percent success rate from last spring training has dipped to 75.6 percent this spring. You might recall that the league-wide success rate in 2023 was a robust 80.0 percent, so perhaps the pitching and catching batteries are catching up in a hurry after being shown up early and often in 2023. I don't have access to dig into which types of bases are being stolen, but I'm curious to see how many teams are taking advantage of stealing third base this spring, since the league swiped those bases at an 84.3 percent clip in the 2023 regular season.
Bryce Johnson and Jose Siri led all players with 12 and 10 stolen bases respectively in Spring Training last season, but those two would combine to steal 15 bases over the entirety of the regular season. Daulton Varsho and Brice Turang are the current leaders for steals this Spring Training with eight and seven steals, respectively. Turang is not a surprise considering he did steal 26 bases in 30 attempts in the 2023 regular season and was 34-of-36 in the 2022 season for Triple-A Nashville. Varsho is a bit more surprising given that he's swiped 16 bases in each of the past two seasons under two different managers. His professional full-season high is 21 from his time with Double-A Jackson back in 2019. Other notable names with at least five steals this Spring Training include Lane Thomas, Nick Gordon, Elly De La Cruz, Andres Gimenez, Will Benson and Jo Adell. That list is heavily tilted toward National League names, so NL-only fantasy managers, take note.
Adell is an interesting name to use as a transition, as he is on one of the teams with a new manager this year. The following clubs have added new managers this season:
- Angels — Ron Washington
- Astros — Joe Espada
- Brewers — Pat Murphy
- Cubs — Craig Counsell
- Giants — Bob Melvin
- Guardians — Stephen Vogt
- Mets — Carlos Mendoza
- Padres — Mike Shildt
Counsell, Melvin and Shildt have recent managerial experience elsewhere, while Murphy, Mendoza, Espada and Washington are recent major-league position or bench coaches. Vogt, on the other hand, has absolutely no managerial experience. This is relevant because a new manager could result in changes to how passive or aggressive a team is on the bases. The table below shows how frequently each of those clubs have attempted steals over the past two spring trainings:
| TEAM | 2023 ST SB RATE | 2024 ST SB RATE | DIFF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 1.03 | 1.90 | 84.5% |
| Astros | 0.89 | 1.18 | 32.6% |
| Brewers | 1.00 | 1.85 | 85.0% |
| Cubs | 1.35 | 0.97 | -28.1% |
| Giants | 1.83 | 1.32 | -27.9% |
| Guardians | 1.17 | 1.10 | -6.0% |
| Mets | 0.68 | 0.60 | -11.8% |
| Padres | 1.13 | 1.05 | -7.1% |
I wouldn't put too much stock into that drop with the Giants because Gabe Kapler ran the team in spring training and then proceeded to put the brakes on the club in the regular season, as the Giants were the only team to see a decrease in their running game from 2022 to 2023. I am very intrigued by what Ron Washington is doing with the Angels and am curious to see if this carries over to the regular season with that roster. Murphy appears to be picking up right where Counsell left off over the years, while Counsell hasn't had the Cubs in motion as much this spring. Finally, the other new managers appear to be playing the status quo game more than anything else.
In short, the early indicators point to us witnessing a repeat of what we saw last year with steals. It makes sense, because the league will continue to do what works well, but we should know early enough if this recent reduction in stolen base success was due more to pitchers reducing their time to home or if it was a matter of minor-league catchers with better pop times influencing the numbers before they were sent down to minor-league camp.
