With the regular season in the rearview mirror, it's time for a look back. Last week we examined the position players who provided the most value relative to their draft slot. This week, we're moving on to starting pitchers. I'll be using RotoWire's preseason ADP numbers and earned auction values.
Starting Pitchers
Chris Sale, 
Atlanta Braves
ADP: 129.44, 38th among starting pitchers
EAV: 3rd among starting pitchers
Next month, Sale is going to win his long-elusive first Cy Young Award. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time he had been in contention, the seventh year in a row he had finished in the top six in the AL Cy Young voting before a multitude of injuries sidetracked his career. Now, in his age-35 season, he's going to win the NL Cy Young in his first year in the Senior Circuit. Crazy. Sale did show glimpses of his old dominant self in 2023 in his final year with the Red Sox, finishing with a 29.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate. The health and consistency simply hadn't been there since 2018, however. In 2024, he had his best velocity since that 2018 campaign and also the best whiff rate on his slider (42.7 percent) since that year. Also notable is that the slider was his most-used pitch this season for the first time in his career, although the margin over the four-seamer was fairly negligible (40.3 percent to 37.8 percent). Sale did
With the regular season in the rearview mirror, it's time for a look back. Last week we examined the position players who provided the most value relative to their draft slot. This week, we're moving on to starting pitchers. I'll be using RotoWire's preseason ADP numbers and earned auction values.
Starting Pitchers
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
ADP: 129.44, 38th among starting pitchers
EAV: 3rd among starting pitchers
Next month, Sale is going to win his long-elusive first Cy Young Award. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time he had been in contention, the seventh year in a row he had finished in the top six in the AL Cy Young voting before a multitude of injuries sidetracked his career. Now, in his age-35 season, he's going to win the NL Cy Young in his first year in the Senior Circuit. Crazy. Sale did show glimpses of his old dominant self in 2023 in his final year with the Red Sox, finishing with a 29.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate. The health and consistency simply hadn't been there since 2018, however. In 2024, he had his best velocity since that 2018 campaign and also the best whiff rate on his slider (42.7 percent) since that year. Also notable is that the slider was his most-used pitch this season for the first time in his career, although the margin over the four-seamer was fairly negligible (40.3 percent to 37.8 percent). Sale did miss his final start of the regular season and the Wild Card Series loss to the Padres due to back spasms, an injury he evidently dealt with off and on during the year, but he was throwing off a mound last week and is expected to have a normal offseason. The lefty's price tag will rightfully be much higher next spring.
Seth Lugo, 
Kansas City Royals
ADP: 255.04, 70th among starting pitchers
EAV: 5th among starting pitchers
The Royals made the postseason for the first time since their World Series run in 2015 thanks in large part to hitting big on a couple free-agent starting pitcher signings in Lugo and Michael Wacha. After spending the vast majority of his time in the bullpen from 2018 to 2022, Lugo made the conversion to the rotation with the Padres in 2023 to terrific results. He was even better in 2024, finishing with an even 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 181:48 K:BB over 206.2 frames. That Lugo finished second in all of baseball in innings pitched was shocking; the 146.1 innings he threw in 2023 were a career high, and he averaged 66 frames per season from 2018 to 2022. It looked like Lugo might be hitting a wall when he posted a 4.86 ERA in July and August this season, but he rebounded with a 2.28 ERA and 26:4 K:BB in 27.2 September innings. It's a kitchen sink approach for Lugo, who, according to Baseball Savant, threw a whopping nine different pitches in 2024. He threw just one of them more than 20 percent of the time (the four-seamer at 24 percent), but six of the pitches had a Run Value of at least 3, per Savant. Lugo had just a 21.7 percent strikeout rate, and an xERA of 3.72 points to some good fortune. He did his best to make up for it with volume, as 181 strikeouts was a perfectly fine number when combined with his rate stats. Can we count on the volume again in 2025?
Shota Imanaga, 
Chicago Cubs
ADP: 169.57, 44th among starting pitchers
EAV: 6th among starting pitchers
The Cubs fell short of expectations in 2024, but they scored a big victory in inking Imanaga as a free agent last offseason. Imanaga's detractors noted upon his entry into free agency last winter that his extreme flyball tendencies and lack of premium velocity could lead to home run problems. Well, Imanaga did serve up 27 long balls this season, which tied for the 12th-highest total in baseball. However, the left-hander was so hard to hit (7.7 H/9) and was so stingy with walks (4.0 percent) that 25 of the 27 homers he surrendered were either solo shots (15) or two-run blasts (10). Imanaga is basically a two-pitch pitcher, and one of those pitches is a four-seamer which averaged just 91.5 mph. However, the southpaw's fastball has an elite movement profile, and his splitter had a robust 42.9 percent whiff rate. (He also got good results with his sweeper and changeup, although the combined usage of those two offerings was just 11.6 percent.)
Paul Skenes, 
Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 283.24, 87th among starting pitchers
EAV: 8th among starting pitchers
By the time most of you all drafted, it had already been announced that Skenes would begin the season in the minors. Also, while most everyone figured he would be good when he did arrive in the majors, I'm not sure anyone thought he'd be this good. Those two factors combined to make Skenes' draft price quite affordable, and some of you might have been lucky enough to scoop him up on the waiver wire when an impatient owner didn't want to wait any longer. May 11 was the date of Skenes' major-league debut, and it didn't take long to realize those willing to stash the young right-hander were going to be rewarded handsomely for it. Skenes' worst month was in August, when he posted a 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 33:10 K:BB over 28.1 innings. From the date of his debut, Skenes led baseball with a 1.96 ERA and 33.1 percent strikeout rate, was second with a 0.95 WHIP and sixth with a 51.3 percent ground ball rate. Skenes didn't make a start on "normal" rest all season, going on five days' rest 19 times and six-plus days' rest on four occasions. Perhaps it's fair to wonder how he'll hold up next season when the Pirates presumably will hand him the ball regularly on four days' rest. He'll be the top pitcher on many fantasy drafts boards next year, though, and it will be completely justified.
Jack Flaherty, 
Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 326.41, 106th among starting pitchers
EAV: 12th among starting pitchers
There didn't seem to be much reason for optimism for Flaherty when he signed a one-year, $14 million contract with the Tigers last offseason. He did strike out more than a batter per inning in 2023 between stints with the Cardinals and Orioles, but his 22.8 percent strikeout rate was barely above league average and his 10.2 percent walk rate was well below average. Flaherty's pitch mix didn't change much in 2024, other than his elimination of a cutter (which he threw just 9.1 percent of the time in 2023 and produced an ugly .389 xwOBA). The Tigers worked with him on cleaning up his mechanics, however, and it led to much sharper command and control. Flaherty also got his slider back. It had been his best pitch at his peak, but in 2023 hitters torched it to the tune of a .392 xwOBA and just a 26.5 percent whiff rate. In 2024, the offering produced a .292 xwOBA and 36.3 percent whiff rate. Flaherty has dealt with some back issues and was still good but less dominant down the stretch with the Dodgers. Still, he'll turn just 29 next week and has set himself up for quite a payday this winter.
Runners-up: Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros; Michael King, San Diego Padres; Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins; Sean Manaea, New York Mets; Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
