There are plenty of ways to assess how good a team is, from box score stats like points per game and turnovers to advanced methods like ELO ratings, but at the end of the day, all of these methods are limited when it comes to predicting the outcome of a one-game sample, especially when you throw in the added pressure of that one game being the Super Bowl. Just ask all the pundits who picked the previously undefeated Patriots to win Super Bowl XLII how that worked out. Analyzing stats and matchups is all the rage, but let's not forget about good old-fashioned narratives when trying to get that edge. Below, we'll look at the narratives surrounding the road to Super Bowl LVIII for the Chiefs and 49ers, how they stack up against each other, and where their storylines subjectively rank among the participants from the last five Super Bowls.
*All years below denote the year that team was associated with, even though those teams played the Super Bowl the following year; e.g. the 2022 Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII in January of 2023.
2023 Chiefs (Super Bowl LVIII vs. 49ers TBD)
Team Narrative: With Mahomes and this defense, who needs receivers?
Memorable Moments: Blew out Bears 41-10 in Taylor Swift's first game in attendance in Week 3; Turned over Ravens deep in Chiefs territory twice to hang on for 17-10 road win in AFC Championship Game
In a few short years, Patrick Mahomes has gone from talented up-and-comer to the player to beat in the NFL. He's in his fourth Super Bowl in the past five years, and while this year's version of the offense has looked less impressive than the previous few iterations, this year's squad has the best defense of the bunch. This team has been reminiscent of numerous Tom Brady championship teams, with a star QB just needing to avoid major mistakes while an elite defense and tight end lead the way. Travis Kelce has once again been as good as it gets in the playoffs, and the introduction of the relationship between Kelce and Taylor Swift has added a new twist to this team's narrative that goes beyond football.
Overall Grade: 6th/10
2023 49ers (Super Bowl LVIII vs. Chiefs TBD)
Team Narrative: This Brock kid's Purdy good, but CMC's the MVP
Memorable Moments: Capped dominant 5-0 start with 42-10 win over Cowboys; Erased 17-point halftime deficit against Lions to win NFC Championship Game 34-31
The 49ers had two dominant stretches in the regular season, starting 5-0 and adding a six-game winning streak coming out of the team's Week 9 bye en route to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. QB Brock Purdy -– the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft -– and RB Christian McCaffrey were both in the thick of the MVP race before a Week 16 home loss to the Ravens ruined those narratives. The playoffs have been a different story, as the 49ers have gone from blowing teams out in the regular season to finding ways to squeak by. San Francisco's second-half comeback against the Lions in the NFCCG occurred one week after the team won from down a touchdown in the fourth quarter (a first of the Kyle Shanahan era) against the Packers in the divisional round. McCaffrey has been the MVP of the playoffs; he has as many rushing TDs in two games (four) as Mahomes has passing TDs in three games this postseason.
Overall Grade: 5th/10
2022 Chiefs (Defeated Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII)
Team Narrative: No Hill, No Problem
Memorable Moments: Clinched 7th consecutive AFC West title with 30-24 OT win in Houston in Week 15; Defeated Bengals 23-20 in AFCCG on game-winning Harrison Butker field goal with three seconds left
After losing to Cincinnati in the previous year's AFC Championship Game and again in the 2022 regular season, the Chiefs finally beat the Bengals in an AFCCG rematch, providing a morale boost heading into the team's third Super Bowl appearance in four seasons. Despite losing star wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the offseason, Kansas City's offense didn't skip a beat. Mahomes won his second MVP award while leading the NFL with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes. Heading into Super Bowl LVIl, Mahomes was looking to snap a curious nine-game losing streak for MVP winners in that same season's Super Bowl while trying to become the seventh QB in NFL history to win MVP and the Super Bowl in the same season.
Overall Grade: 8th/10
2022 Eagles (Lost 38-35 to Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII)
Team Narrative: Tush-pushing down the path of least resistance
Memorable Moments: Clinched No. 1 seed in NFC and NFC East title with 22-16 Week 18 win over the Giants; Defeated 49ers 31-7 in NFCCG after Purdy's injury took the wind out of San Francisco's sails
The Eagles were best known for being nearly unstoppable on 3rd-and-1 or 4th-and-1 thanks to the "tush push," as QB Jalen Hurts' strong legs churning behind center Jason Kelce was nearly guaranteed for one yard. Philadelphia posted an impressive 14-3 regular-season record, but the Eagles benefited from an easy schedule in both the regular season and playoffs. In the postseason, they faced an overmatched Giants team in the divisional round and capitalized on Purdy getting injured in the first quarter of the NFCCG against the 49ers.
Overall Grade: 10th/10
2021 Rams (Defeated Bengals 23-20 in Super Bowl LVI)
Team Narrative: McVay finally got his QB while Donald and Ramsey lead a dominant D
Memorable Moments: Vanquished Buccaneers 30-27 on Matt Gay's 30-yard FG as time expired in the divisional round; Scored 13 unanswered points in fourth quarter of NFCCG to snap a six-game losing streak against the 49ers with a 20-17 win
Three years after coming up short in the Super Bowl with Jared Goff under center, the Rams upgraded at the game's most important position by pulling the trigger on a trade for Matthew Stafford. With Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp forming a special partnership in coach Sean McVay's offense, WR Odell Beckham coming along for the ride in the second half of the season and a stout defense led by star DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams were loaded on both sides of the ball.
Overall Grade: 3rd/10
2021 Bengals (Lost to Rams 23-20 in Super Bowl LVI)
Team Narrative: Burrow to Chase: a winning combination
Memorable Moments: Defeated Raiders 26-19 in wild-card round for Cincinnati's first playoff win since 1990; Came back from down 11 at halftime to stun the Chiefs 27-24 in OT in the AFCCG
After leading LSU to a college football championship in 2019, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase were reunited in Cincinnati, as the Bengals drafted Chase fifth overall in 2021 after taking Burrow first overall in 2020. Burrow's rookie season was cut short due to injury, but he and Chase showed a special connection out of the gate as Burrow ascended to the top tier of NFL QBs in his second NFL season. Despite shoddy offensive line play, Burrow outdueled Mahomes in the AFC Championship Game as the Bengals shocked the world and reached the Super Bowl for the first time since 1988.
Overall Grade: 7th/10
2020 Buccaneers (Defeated Chiefs 31-9 in Super Bowl LV)
Team Narrative: Brady goes for No. 7 with Tampa's superteam
Memorable Moments: Defeated Saints 30-20 in Divisional Playoffs after losing both regular-season meetings; Beat Packers 31-26 in NFCCG as Green Bay opted for a field goal late down eight
Tom Brady couldn't have asked for a better situation in Tampa Bay. He joined an offense that had just seen Jameis Winston throw for a league-leading 5,109 yards, and the Buccaneers had a ferocious defense with numerous playmakers, including Devin White, Lavonte David and Jason Pierre-Paul. As if that wasn't enough, the Bucs bolstered their offense with veteran ring chasers Rob Gronkowksi, Antonio Brown and Leonard Fournette. Even at age 43, there was little doubt Brady had enough in the tank to get by far the best roster in the NFL over the finish line.
Overall Grade: 1st/10
2020 Chiefs (Lost to Buccaneers 31-9 in Super Bowl LV)
Team Narrative: Can Mahomes and Co. repeat?
Memorable Moments: Defeated Falcons 17-14 on Mahomes' game-winning touchdown pass to Demarcus Robinson with 1:55 remaining in Week 16 to improve to 14-1; Handled Bills 38-24 in AFC Championship Game
The Chiefs had a dominant season on the heels of their first title in the Mahomes era, posting a league-best 14-2 record while Mahomes delivered a sparkling 38:6 TD:INT. Mahomes' magnificence masked a pedestrian defense and running game, but expectations were still quite high going into the Super Bowl, even though Mahomes was dealing with turf toe heading into the game.
Overall Grade: 4th/10
2019 Chiefs (Defeated 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV)
Team Narrative: Can the Wunderkind close the deal?
Memorable Moments: Won 23-16 at New England in Week 14 to avenge last season's AFCCG loss, Roared back from 24-0 deficit to crush Texans 51-31 in the divisional round
Mahomes wasn't nearly as spectacular statistically as he was in his 50-TD 2018 campaign, but he played his best when it mattered most and had two elite pass catchers at his disposal in TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill. After beating Brady on the road in the regular season and overcoming a disastrous start in their postseason opener, the Chiefs felt like a team of destiny. Mahomes was preparing to play his first Super Bowl, while coach Andy Reid was looking to finally get over the hump in the Big Game, 15 years after losing the Super Bowl XXXIX with the Eagles.
Overall Grade: 2nd/10
2019 49ers (Lost to Chiefs 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV)
Team Narrative: Shanahan and the D are legit, but is Jimmy G good enough?
Memorable Moments: Won 28-25 at Arizona in Week 9 to improve to 8-0 with their first win over the Cardinals since 2014; Raced out to 27-0 halftime lead in dominant 37-20 NFCCG win over Packers
The 49ers enjoyed a remarkable turnaround in 2019, starting 8-0 before ultimately securing the top seed in the NFC at 13-3 after finishing 4-12 in 2018. Coach Kyle Shanahan's offense finished second in both PPG and rushing yards in the regular season, while the defense allowed the second-fewest scrimmage yards per game. The biggest question mark about the team was QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who finally put together a healthy season but had a pedestrian 27:13 TD:INT.
Overall Grade: 9th/10
Top Team Narratives in last five Super Bowls:
- 2020 Buccaneers (won)
- 2019 Chiefs (won)
- 2021 Rams (won)
- 2020 Chiefs (lost)
- 2023 49ers (TBD)
- 2023 Chiefs (TBD)
- 2021 Bengals (lost)
- 2022 Chiefs (won)
- 2019 49ers (lost)
- 2022 Eagles (lost)
