With the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby slated to kick off from Louisville's Churchill Downs on May 2, it's never too early to take a look at which thoroughbreds are already being considered betting favorites.
With that in mind, the team at RotoWire.com took a trip down memory lane to break down Kentucky Derby odds history, looking at how bettors would fare if they bet the Derby favorite, versus how well they would have done by wagering on one of the many Derby longshot winners in the event's more than century-and-a-half long history in the Bluegrass State.
Betting The Favorite: A Smart Choice?
History tells us that anyone that's looking to make a quick return on their investment come the first Saturday of May should avoid taking the morning betting favorite. That's because our survey found that 38.5% of favorites won the actual race that year, while 61.5% of them had either a win, place or show when it was all said and done that day.
Right now, favorites in the Kentucky Derby are on a six-year losing streak, with Country House being the last Kentucky Derby betting favorite to come across the finish line ahead of the pack, doing so in 2:03.93 to take home the roses.
If you were to bet $10 on the favorite each year this century, you would have barely broken even over that stretch of time, taking home $183 in total, which speaks to how wide-open the first of the three Triple Crown legs is to handicap.
That's not to say that betting the favorite hasn't paid off at times on US sports betting apps, however, as there was a stretch from 2013 through 2018 where the race day favorite came across the track ahead of the pack, including the pair of Triple Crown winners (American Pharoah and Justify), making the favorite feel like a sure thing (until it wasn't), with 10 favorites winning the 26 races since 2000.
2026 Derby: Who Handicappers Are Going With
While we're still a ways away from the call to the gate, TwinSpires has already posted betting lines on the 152nd running of the Derby, with Todd Pletcher's Renegade being the early Kentucky Derby betting favorite, at 9-2.
For those looking to bet the Derby favorite this year, it's worth remembering that Pletcher has won twice in 62 Kentucky Derby starts, doing so in 2010 (Super Saver) and 2017 (Always Dreaming), the first jockeyed by the legendary Calvin Borel while the latter was manned by John Velazquez.
While Renegade's jockey in 2026 has yet to be determined, we can assume that anyone looking to make some quick money by wagering on this year's race can take a look at Churchill Downs betting trends and see that taking the favorite is a fool's errand more often than not.
Interestingly, both of the horses with the second-and-third best Kentucky Derby betting odds right now are trained by Brad Cox, who has won one Derby (with Mandaloun in 2021), a feat he'll look to double up on with either Further Ado (5-1 odds) or Commandment (6-1 odds).
The rest of the current 2026 Kentucky Derby betting favorites are trained by names like Bill Mott (who has never won a Derby) and Gustavo Delgado (who trained 2023 winner Mage), with Chief Wallabee (Mott) and The Puma (Delgado) coming in at 10-1, while legendary trainer Bob Baffert's top horse in 2026 is Potente, at 15-1.
Regardless of who trains this year's Kentucky Derby winner, it seems like it's a safe idea to consider fading the favorite horse racing pick, with the Kentucky Derby win rate for favorites indicating that the smart play is to avoid taking Renegade come May 2.
Luckily for those looking to go off-script, there are plenty of top-tier thoroughbreds trained by Kentucky Derby winners, such as Baffert, Cox and Delgado, making one's comfort level with abstaining from taking the race day favorite a bit more palatable for the general betting masses.
