Eight starting quarterbacks remain in the hunt for Super Bowl LVIII. Seven of them were first-round draft picks, while the eighth was the last pick of the last round. Brock Purdy is the exception to the rule, and while he had to wait until the 262nd pick to hear his name in the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy's unique mix of skills, drive and opportunity have allowed him to quickly progress from Mr. Irrelevant to the quarterback of the team favored to win Super Bowl LVIII. Here's a look at Purdy's journey so far, as well as what could lie in store for him and the 49ers.
What Did the First 261 Picks Miss?
Purdy isn't the first late-round QB draft pick to find success after being passed over numerous times by every NFL team, as 2000 sixth-round pick Tom Brady went on to have a pretty good career after being drafted 199th overall by the Patriots out of Michigan. Even Brady went 62 picks earlier in his draft, though. To put that gap in perspective, it's somewhere between the Patrick Mahomes-DeShone Kizer gap (42 picks in 2017) and the Josh Allen-Mason Rudolph gap (69 picks in 2018).
According to Purdy's NFL prospect profile, he demonstrated toughness and leadership qualities as a four-year starter at Iowa State while showing a nice mix of anticipation and accuracy when he got into a rhythm, but he lacked the timing to push the ball effectively down the field and shied away from tough throws. Interestingly, a deeper dive into his pre-NFL stats shows the potential to develop into an elite QB was there for all to see, but NFL scouts simply missed it. Purdy always had the talent; he was the 2017 Arizona high school player of the year, setting state records with 4,405 passing yards and 57 passing touchdowns. As a sophomore at Iowa State in 2019, he joined Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence as one of four FBS QBs to throw at least 27 TDs and run in eight more. Lawrence and Fields were both first-round picks in 2021, while Hurts was a second-round steal (53rd overall) in 2020. Purdy added to his accolades as a senior by ranking fourth in the nation with a 71.7 completion percentage, an accomplishment greeted by a collective yawn from the NFL scouting community.
If you did a redraft of 2022, Purdy probably goes first overall, though maybe the Jaguars would take Sauce Gardner if they didn't get the right offer to trade down. There's no question Purdy's the crown jewel of a weak QB class highlighted by Kenny Pickett (20th), Desmond Ridder (74th), Bailey Zappe (137th) and Sam Howell (144th). If the 49ers had realized Purdy's true potential, they wouldn't have waited until the very last pick of 2022 to draft him, either, but at least San Francisco was wise enough to draft him eventually, even if the 49ers didn't envision him taking the field in a QB room led at the time by 2021 third-overall pick Trey Lance and veteran Jimmy Garoppolo.
How Purdy Got His Chance
Garoppolo quarterbacked the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance in the 2019 season and the NFC Championship in 2021, but he felt like a passenger at times in both runs, with an underwhelming 4:6 TD:INT across six playoff games despite the team's 4-2 record. With an outstanding offensive coach in Kyle Shanahan, plenty of playmakers on that side of the ball, and an elite defense, the 49ers felt that they were a quarterback upgrade away from a championship. They put most of their eggs in the Trey Lance basket in the 2021 NFL Draft, trading three first-round picks and a third-round selection to the Dolphins for the No. 3 overall pick used to select Lance. Luckily for the 49ers, Miami didn't ask for their 2022 seventh-rounder to sweeten the pot.
Lance's physical tools enticed the 49ers, but the jump from North Dakota State to the NFL proved too great for Lance, who failed to beat out Garoppolo for the starting job in 2021. Garoppolo ultimately led San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game before falling short, and the team went into the 2022 season with Lance penciled in as its starter. San Francisco tried to trade the oft-injured Garoppolo, and when that failed, the team agreed to a restructured deal to bring him in as the backup.
So, where does Purdy fit into all this turmoil under center? He showed promise in practice, but rookie seventh-round picks simply don't see the field barring dire circumstances. What seemed like a rash of bad injury luck in 2022 actually turned out to be a lucky break for the 49ers, as it allowed them to see what they have in Purdy. Lance fractured his fibula in Week 2 of the 2022 season, ending his run as the starter after two games. Garoppolo reclaimed his familiar role as the starting QB, but he lasted only 10 starts before breaking his foot. Left with no other choice, the 49ers turned to Purdy, and he seized the opportunity with a historic start to his career.
Purdy tossed two touchdowns to help the 49ers finish a 33-17 win over the Dolphins — a team that has yet to get a playoff win from 2020 first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa, even with the gift Miami got from the 49ers for the Lance pick. That game began a streak of seven consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes for Purdy, including a 41-23 win over the Seahawks in the wild card round. He also won his first seven starts, extending that streak in the divisional round against the Cowboys, even as the touchdown streak came to an end. Purdy's winning streak ended in the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles, as he suffered an elbow injury early in the game that required offseason surgery. His first regular-season loss as a starter didn't come until Week 6 of the 2024 season; the streak of 10 consecutive regular-season wins to begin a career tied Purdy with Mike Tomczak from 1986 for the second-longest of all time behind Ben Roethlisberger's 15-game winning streak spanning 2004-05.
Purdy's Present and Future
Purdy took advantage of the perfect storm to go from Mr. Irrelevant to MVP candidate in less than two years. Shanahan's play calling and San Francisco's weapons helped Purdy unlock the confidence and rhythm on deep balls that was lacking on an Iowa State team that preferred to hand the ball off to Breece Hall rather than ask Purdy to challenge defenses downfield. Injuries to San Francisco's other QBs gave him the opportunity to showcase his skills in meaningful games, as the hefty price the 49ers paid for Lance almost certainly would have earned Lance a longer leash otherwise, even if Purdy had been outplaying him in practice.
Purdy certainly landed in the right situation, but he's more than just a product of his surroundings in San Francisco. Garoppolo had 82 touchdown passes in 57 games for the 49ers (1.4 per game). Since replacing Garoppolo against the Dolphins, Purdy has 44 in 22 games (2.0 per game). Almost as importantly to San Francisco's Super Bowl aspirations, Purdy is making just $3.74 million over four years on his seventh-round rookie deal. After trading for Garoppolo in 2017, the 49ers gave him a five-year contract with a $27.5 million annual cap hit. Part of why Purdy has such a strong supporting cast is his affordability, as San Francisco can surround him with over $50 million of extra talent compared to the Chiefs, who have Mahomes' $57.4 million cap hit on the books.
Purdy is just in his second season. Whether the 49ers can maintain their dominance when his minuscule cap hit gets replaced by one more representative of his vast abilities remains to be seen, but it's a chance San Francisco will be willing to take. Purdy may not have the strongest arm or the prettiest deep ball, and he can be interception-prone, as evidenced by a four-pick Week 16 performance against the Ravens that likely cost him the MVP award. Despite those deficiencies, he proved to be elite in his first full season as a starter, exceeding even the most optimistic expectations by leading the league in yards per attempt (9.6), touchdown percentage (7.0), and quarterback rating (113.0).
How the 2022 seventh-rounder fares as the underdog in a postseason run surrounded by first-round picks will help determine just how large his future payday from the 49ers turns out to be, but unlike Garoppolo and Lance, the 49ers have found their franchise QB in Purdy. Considering teams like the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are still doing just fine after paying their former first-round QBs big second contracts, the 49ers shouldn't think twice about paying Purdy. After passing on him with the first eight picks they made in the 2022 NFL Draft, the 49ers have learned their lesson and won't pass on Purdy again when it comes time to keep him in San Francisco, especially if the 24-year-old QB defies his draft position again this postseason and brings the team its first Super Bowl title in 29 years.
