Ahead of Friday's WNBA regular-season opening night, RotoWire.com used Claude to simulate the season 100 times, producing a win probability model with the following results. Sims were run on May 6, 2026, based on preseason WNBA championship betting odds and and various preseason power rankings.
Who is predicted to win the WNBA championship? The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces have the edge. See our interactive graphic for more:
8%
2%
2%
1%| # | Team | Champ % | Finals L % | Playoff % | Avg W | Avg L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Liberty | 45% | 21% | 100% | 32.4 | 11.6 |
| 2 | Las Vegas Aces | 28% | 27% | 100% | 32.1 | 11.9 |
| 3 | Indiana Fever | 14% | 24% | 99% | 28.2 | 15.8 |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream | 8% | 13% | 98% | 28.1 | 15.9 |
| 5 | Phoenix Mercury | 2% | 3% | 80% | 23.5 | 20.5 |
| 6 | Minnesota Lynx | 2% | 2% | 70% | 22.6 | 21.4 |
| 7 | Dallas Wings | 1% | 5% | 77% | 22.8 | 21.2 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Sparks | — | 4% | 83% | 24.1 | 19.9 |
| 9 |  Golden State Valkyries | — | — | 37% | 20 | 24 |
| 10 |  Chicago Sky | — | — | 26% | 18.6 | 25.4 |
| 11 |  Washington Mystics | — | 1% | 12% | 17.2 | 26.8 |
| 12 |  Toronto Tempo | — | — | 5% | 16.1 | 27.9 |
| 13 |  Seattle Storm | — | — | 5% | 16.2 | 27.8 |
| 14 |  Connecticut Sun | — | — | 8% | 15.4 | 28.6 |
| 15 |  Portland Fire | — | — | 0% | 12.8 | 31.1 |
NYL (32.4-11.6)LVA (32.1-11.9)IND (28.2-15.8)ATL (28.1-15.9)PHX (23.5-20.5)MIN (22.6-21.4)DAL (22.8-21.2)LAS (24.1-19.9)GSV (20-24)CHI (18.6-25.4)WAS (17.2-26.8)TOR (16.1-27.9)SEA (16.2-27.8)CON (15.4-28.6)POR (12.8-31.1)2026 WNBA Championship Odds vs. Our Model
Given their preseason place as the unanimous 2026 WNBA betting favorite, it's likely of little surprise to learn that the New York Liberty won the most titles out of our 100 simulations. New York won 45 out of 100 simulations with an average win total of 32.4.
This year, coach Chris DeMarco's club enters with title odds that range from +220 on U.S. mobile sportsbooks such as bet365, Caesars, DraftKings and Fanatics. Customers using the BetMGM Sportsbook bonus code can get New York at +350 to win its second title in three years in 2026.
The defending champion Las Vegas Aces won the title again in 28% of our projections with a 32.1 win total. Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever were the only other squad that won at least 10% of the time, doing so in 14% of our projections (with a 28.2 win total) for who is predicted to win the WNBA championship. That was just ahead of the Atlanta Dream (8%/28.1 win total) for the third spot leaguewide.
Aces star A'ja Wilson is the favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook with +200 odds to win 2026 WNBA Most Valuable Player, which would be her fifth time and third in a row. Clark is second at +260, so follow all season tyo see if Caitlin Clark MVP odds will move.
WNBA MVP Odds and Top Contenders for the 2026 Season
Unsurprisingly, the Liberty, Aces and Fever are near the top of the 2026 WNBA championship betting tables across those five sportsbooks. The Aces are either alone or tied for second on all of them. Indiana was tied with Las Vegas for No. 2 on BetMGM (+400) and third overall, at +450, across the others.
Atlanta was the consensus No. 4 team across those five sportsbooks, with futures ranging from +550 on BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook to +650 on DraftKings and Fanatics sportsbooks.
Those team left few championships for any other franchises to claim across 100 simulated full seasons. Three teams (the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx at 2% each and the Dallas Wings at 1%) won at least one title out of our total 100-projection dataset. Dallas has missed the playoffs the past two seasons but have landed back-to-back No. 1 overall picks in former UConn teammates Paige Bueckers (2025) and Azzi Fudd (2026).
The Los Angeles Sparks and Washington Mystics were among those reaching the WNBA Finals at least once. At bet365 Sportsbook, the Sparks have -400 odds to make the eight-team playoffs and a +290 line to miss out. The Mystics are +290 to qualify for the postseason and have -400 odds not to.
2026 WNBA Playoff Projections And Teams Most Likely To Miss
Across our simulations, the WNBA franchise that fared the worst was the expansion Portland Fire, the lone club that failed to reach the postseason after 100 season simulations. The Fire (a new version, not to be confused with the Portland Fire that played in the WNBA from 2000 to 2002) also had the fewest average projected wins, at 12.8.
The Connecticut Sun had an 8% postseason rate and a win total of 15.4 for its final season in Uncasville. The franchise is slated to move to Houston, starting with the 2027 season, Still, even teams projected to do poorly can have individual players with WNBA fantasy value.
The Seattle Storm (16.2 projected wins), Toronto Tempo (16.1), Mystics (17.2) and Chicago Sky (18.6) were the only others projected to win fewer than 20 out of 44 regular-season games. That sets the bar for what should be a slate of rebuilding seasons (or building seasons, in Toronto's case) across those markets.
All told, eight teams that are projected to clear the .500 mark and make the playoffs. That should give women's basketball fans across the country (and in Ontario) reason for optimism as the 30th year of WNBA hoops tips off on Friday evening.
Check out our WNBA 2026 Season Excitement Index to see how the hype is ramping up.
