This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The second Thursday at Wimbledon is women's semifinals day. Three of the four players left in the women's singles draw are at the semifinal stage of a Grand Slam for the first time, while Simona Halep finds herself in familiar territory, as she's making her ninth Grand Slam semifinal appearance. Halep's well-rounded game offers a stark contrast compared to the serve-reliant approach of her semifinal opponent Elena Rybakina, while the second matchup has a significant favorite in second-ranked Ons Jabeur against surprise semifinalist Tatjana Maria.
The four semifinalists have taken varied paths to this point, but they are all just two matches from winning the Wimbledon title. Each player has proven capable of beating quality opponents on grass, but a mix of prior results and matchups can help project who will have the upper hand in Thursday's matches. Below is a preview of Wednesday's women's semifinals. All match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars.
Simona Halep (-310) vs. Elena Rybakina (+245)
Halep lifts her game deep in majors. The two-time Grand Slam champion is 5-3 in major semifinals, and she has been absolutely dominant at Wimbledon lately. She missed the 2021 event due to injury after 2020 was canceled, but Halep won the tournament in 2019, so she's riding a 12-match winning streak at Wimbledon. Even more impressively, her last 10 victories at the All England Club have all come in straight sets, so it's no surprise that the 18th-ranked Romanian is a significant favorite in this match despite being ranked just five spots ahead of her opponent.
Riding a dominant serve to a deep Wimbledon run is a more common strategy on the men's side, but Rybakina has been able to do just that. The world No. 23 has served up 44 aces in 11 sets this tournament, including 15 in Wednesday's 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 comeback win over Ajla Tomljanovic. This is the deepest Rybakina has made it in a Grand Slam, but she reached the French Open quarterfinals and Wimbledon fourth round last year, so she's not a complete stranger to playing in the second week of a major. Rybakina can draw some confidence from her previous results against Halep. They have played three times since 2019, all on hard courts. Rybakina won the first matchup when Halep retired in the first set, and Halep has pulled out a pair of subsequent nail biters, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (5) and 7-6 (11), 4-6, 6-3.
Ons Jabeur (-750) vs. Tatjana Maria (+500)
This is Jabeur's first Grand Slam semifinal, but it had been predominantly considered just a matter of time until the 27-year-old world No. 2 made it this far. She reached the quarterfinals in two previous Grand Slams, including last year's Wimbledon, and Jabeur played in the championship match of four of her last six singles events heading into Wimbledon. She has been dealing with the pressure of being the clear favorite in her half of the draw for a few days now, and Jabeur recovered beautifully after a nervous first set in Tuesday's quarterfinal match, beating Marie Bouzkova 3-6, 6-1, 6-1.
If Jabeur plays up to her capabilities, she shouldn't have trouble winning this match, but all the pressure will be on the heavy favorite, while Maria two can swing freely. There's no substitute for belief in big moments, and the 34-year-old mother of two has shown plenty of that. The 103rd-ranked Maria has defeated two top-20 players to get to this point in Maria Sakkari and Jelena Ostapenko, so she shouldn't be taken lightly despite being a significant underdog. Three of Maria's five wins at this tournament have been 7-5 in the third set, so be ready to throw a live bet on her if this match gets to 5-5 in the third.
