This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The US Open men's and women's quarterfinals continue Wednesday from the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York. A pair of young stars will square off on the men's side, while two of the most accomplished women without a Grand Slam title will go head to head, and Wednesday's other two matches both feature an American looking to reach their first Grand Slam semifinal.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but occasionally you can find more favorable odds by searching other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the best sports betting sites. The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. All of the players in action Wednesday have shown they're capable of notching quality wins to get to this point, but a mix of their previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help predict how the upcoming matches will unfold.
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Frances Tiafoe (-110) vs. Andrey Rublev (-110)
Tiafoe beat Rublev in a thrilling five-setter that went deep into the night at last year's US Open, so the fiery American has already proven he has what it takes to take out the hard-hitting Russian in Arthur Ashe Stadium. Their results in this tournament suggest a repeat wouldn't be all that surprising this time around. We've seen time and again that beating one of the active all-time greats leads to a short-term boost in performance thanks to a surge of confidence, and Tiafoe's coming off a four-set win over Rafael Nadal. While Nadal wasn't at his best due to the remnants of his various injuries and the distraction of his wife being 34 weeks pregnant, that was still the biggest win of Tiafoe's career, and he now has a golden opportunity to build on that signature win by breaking through to his first career Grand Slam semifinal.
Rublev has looked less impressive in this tournament despite being ranked 15 spots above Tiafoe at No. 11, though he's also coming off his best performance, sweeping away Cameron Norrie in straight sets after being pushed to five sets in two of his previous three matches. While Rublev beat Tiafoe in Cincinnati last month, the court conditions there played more into the Russian's favor, as Rublev's only career hard court Masters 1000 final came at Cincinnati in 2021.
Prediction: Tiafoe in five sets.
Carlos Alcaraz (-180) vs. Jannik Sinner (+150)
Sinner leads the head-to-head between these two talented youngsters 2-1, including a convincing four-set win at Wimbledon this year, but Alcaraz has been sharper thus far in this tournament. The 19-year-old Spaniard's coming off a high-quality five-set win over former US Open champion Marin Cilic after cruising through his first three matches, while Sinner's been pushed to five sets by a pair of unseeded opponents in Daniel Altmaier and Ilya Ivashka. Alcaraz will grab the No. 1 ranking if he wins this tournament, and he'll need to put in a performance worthy of that top spot to get through his 21-year-old Italian foe, but bet against him doing so at your own risk. While this should be a back and forth battle, Alcaraz's flashier game and fiery personality will likely get the New York crowd behind him, which could push him over the edge down the stretch.
Prediction: Alcaraz in five sets.
WOMEN
Iga Swiatek (-215) vs. Jessica Pegula (+175)
Swiatek has been far from her sharpest here, but like a true champion, the world No. 1 has found her game when it's mattered most. She looked to be in deep trouble in the previous round against Wimbledon quarterfinalist Jule Niemeier and was making elementary errors for the first set in a half, but Swiatek pulled away once she got in the zone to come away with a 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 victory. Pegula will certainly make Swiatek earn it, but the last American woman left in the US Open has yet to break through in the latter stages of a Grand Slam due to her lack of a big weapon. This will be Pegula's fourth quarterfinal in the last eight Grand Slams, but the world No. 8 has been thwarted at this stage on each of the previous three occasions. Even if Swiatek's a little off early, this matchup will allow her to play her way into form if need be, and she's already beaten Pegula in straight sets twice this year.
Prediction: Swiatek in two sets.
Karolina Pliskova (+115) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (-135)
These are arguably the two best WTA players without a Grand Slam title, but one of these women will be two matches away from changing that once this one's over. Pliskova has had to battle hard to get through a tough draw, but the former world No. 1 has overcome every obstacle in front of her with three-set wins over Magda Linette, Belinda Bencic and Victoria Azarenka, as well as an impressive straight sets win over Marie Bouzkova. Her path doesn't get any easier against the sixth-seeded Sabalenka, who has been locked in since getting a second lease on life in this tournament with a second-round escape against Kaia Kanepi. Both of these players set up the rest of their game with big serves, though Sabalenka's more hit-or-miss and occasionally gets the yips, particularly on her second serve. Pliskova and Sabalenka have split four previous meetings, with both of Sabalenka's wins coming in 2018 before Pliskova answered with a pair of victories last year, so their recent history points in Pliskova's favor.
Prediction: Pliskova in three sets.
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