This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
While most of us have Monday off for Labor Day, the ATP and WTA tennis professionals will be hard at work finishing up the fourth round of the US Open. Monday's action from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York may not break much from the expected chalk results, but there's no shortage of exciting tennis on the docket. A pair of favored Spaniards should keep on rolling on the men's side, while two seeded American women will look to keep their runs going, much to the delight of the New York crowd. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but occasionally you can find more favorable odds by searching other mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the best sports betting sites.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Andrey Rublev (+130) vs. Cameron Norrie
This would only qualify as a pretty minor upset, but given the selection we have to work with, Rublev has the best chance of any underdog to come out victorious Monday. Rublev's ranked just two spots behind Norrie at 11th, and they've split two previous meetings, both on hard courts. While Rublev has had to work much harder in this tournament, he'll be ready to handle the big moments in this match after navigating a pair of five-setters, including a third-round thriller against Denis Shapovalov that ended 10-7 in the fifth-set tiebreak. The Russian's superior power off the ground, especially on the forehand side, should allow him to dictate play against Norrie's more cerebral, well-rounded style.
Honorable Mention:
Danielle Collins (+120) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Lock It In
Carlos Alcaraz (-450) vs. Marin Cilic
Alcaraz has been razor sharp so far in New York, even if the 19-year-old's baby face hardly needs a razor at this point. His shotmaking has wowed the crowd, while Alvarez's defense has allowed him to buckle down when necessary to get through three rounds without dropping a set. This is the best hard court tennis we've seen from Alcaraz since he won the Miami Open in early April. He beat Cilic in straights sets there and again in last month's Cincinnati Masters, improving his head-to-head against the veteran Croat to 2-1 overall and 2-0 on hard courts.
Jannik Sinner (-360) vs. Ilya Ivashka
Ivashka has won a trio of four-setters, but only his second-round win over Hubert Hurkacz was truly surprising. The 28-year-old Belarusian is into the fourth round of a Grand Slam for only the second time in his career, and pulling off another major upset will be a tall order for Ivashka against Sinner, who has been locked in since pulling out a gutsy five-setter in the first round. After that close call against Daniel Altmaier, Sinner has looked impressive in quality wins over Americans Christopher Eubanks and Brandon Nakashima, showing why he's ranked 60 spots ahead of Ivashka at 13th in the world.
Honorable Mention:
Rafael Nadal (-550) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Value Bet
Victoria Azarenka (-110) vs. Karolina Pliskova
This one's truly a toss-up, but Azarenka gets the slight edge here based on how she's looked in this tournament and her career superiority on this surface. They've split eight previous meetings, and that head-to-head includes a 2-1 edge for Azarenka on hard courts. Outside of a second-set wobble against Ashlyn Krueger, where Azarenka blew a lead but recovered nicely in the third, the three-time US Open finalist has been steamrolling opponents. After beating Krueger 6-1, 4-6, 6-2 in the first round, she added decisive 6-2, 6-3 and 6-3, 6-0 victories over Marta Kostyuk and Petra Martic in her next two matches. Pliskova has had a far tougher road here, needing a third-set tiebreak to escape Magda Linette in the opening round before recovering from a set and a break down in her last match against Belinda Bencic. While Pliskova has the far superior serve in this battle between former world No. 1s, Azarenka will seize control in rallies with her powerful groundstrokes off both wings.
Honorable Mention:
Jessica Pegula (-125) vs. Petra Kvitova
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