Yahoo DFS Soccer: Tuesday UCL Picks

MATCHES (EST)

3:00 p.m: Dortmund v. Tottenham
3:00 p.m: Real Madrid v. Ajax

FORWARDS

Karim Benzema, RMA v. AJA (£27): Benzema has the best odds to score on the slate, so I'm automatically looking his way, especially when teammate Gareth Bale costs more. None of the available forwards are guaranteed anything, and that's why I'm comfortable backing Benzema even without much of a floor. At the least, he's getting two shots every start in addition to one on net in his last four. Since Ajax have to push forward, that should lead to plenty of breakaways for Benzema and Co., which is why they have the highest expected goal total of the four teams. If he doesn't score, he may only reach five points, but it's not like any of the other forwards have more upside or better floors.

Harry Kane, TOT at BVB (£28): The thought in rostering both Kane and Benzema is that one of them will surely find the back of the net. Tottenham have worse odds to score, but if they do, Kane will be involved, as he has done so in 10 of his last 12 starts in all competitions. And while Spurs may sit back and take the blows, it's hard to see Dortmund not allowing at least one goal. In fact, they've allowed eight goals in their last three at home (league cup included) and just lost last week to Augsburg, who are battling relegation in Bundesliga. Son Heung-Min (£21) has become useless since Kane's return and Dusan Tadic (£24) is expensive for a goal-or-bust underdog.

Paco Alcacer, BVB v. TOT (£14): There's a chance Alcacer starts, which he's done in two of the last five league matches. If that's the case, his price doesn't make much sense, and while he does a lot of his damage off the bench, he'll still make value due to shots alone. Marco Reus (£21) is next in line, though he's played just three matches since December due to injury. After starting last Friday, I'm not sure he'll get the start a few days later. Even if he does, he'll likely play only 60 or 70 minutes again.

MIDFIELDERS

Lasse Schone, AJA at RMA (£17): If you spend on the big boys at forward, you'll have to save money elsewhere. Schone is a good start as Ajax's top corner taker to go with various defensive stats. That's why he has a floor of five fantasy points and reached 7.55 points in the first leg in only 73 minutes. More interesting is that Axel Witsel (£25) has a similar floor yet costs almost as much as the top forwards. If you have more money and want to stick with Ajax, Hakim Ziyech (£22) may be the best route because in addition to some corners, he also took at least three shots in every Champions League start.

Mario Gotze, BVB v. TOT (£15): Gotze's numbers have been pretty bad in the Champions League this season, and that's why he's cheap, failing to reach five fantasy points in all four starts. That changes if he starts as the lone forward, which he's done in three of the last four league matches, producing two goals on 11 shots and two assists. Even if he's an attacking midfielder, there's still a decent chance he can surpass five points and possibly more. The one thing Dortmund can do is score, and down three goals, they'll be pushing the majority of the match. To get an attacking player at this price on a favorite is a steal, especially on a small slate.

Casemiro, RMA v. AJA (£19): I'm partly putting Casemiro here because there's no telling what the rest of Real's lineup will look like and at least he has a decent floor. As a defensive midfielder, he may get the most work for the home team after hitting a floor of 6.80 points in the first meeting from three tackles and four interceptions. As long as he puts in those same numbers, that's good enough, whereas someone like Toni Kroos (£26) may not get the same free-kick opportunities as usual if Real sit back at all.

DEFENDERS

Raphael Varane, RMA v. AJA (£15): Marcelo (£20) and Raphael Guerreiro (£19) have the most upside of the defenders, but that's seen in their prices, and their floors are far from guaranteed. Varane has the best odds for a clean sheet and should get enough work to hit five points as long as Ajax attack as much as they're expected to. Using Varane instead of Marcelo or Guerreiro also allows you to spend big at forward.

Daley Blind, AJA at RMA (£13): Blind is another cheap option with a solid floor, having reached at least four points in six of seven Champions League starts. He had 4.90 points in the first leg and didn't have to do much. There's a chance he completes more passes to push his floor even higher, though that's only if Real play defensively and let Ajax pass the ball round, which may be a stretch. Either way, he's one of the cheapest starting defenders and has a floor near five points, as good as most of the expensive guys, including teammate Nicolas Tagliafico (£17).

Manuel Akanji, BVB v TOT (£13): In the same mold as Blind, Akanji should have a better floor if Tottenham sit back all match. He completed 117 passes in his last league start, and even if he only reaches half of that, it gives his floor another few points to go with whatever defensive stats he accrues. If you can get a floor above five points at this price, that's much easier than spending more on Nacho or Kieran Trippier, both at £17.

GOALKEEPER

Thibaut Courtois, RMA v. AJA (£17): If you need to save money, Roman Burki (£15) is a tad cheaper, and according to the oddsmakers, has almost the same chance as Courtois to get a clean sheet. I'm a little more confident in Courtois because Real Madrid aren't the ones who need to press for goals. Courtois should also make a few more saves since Ajax need to score, as well. Otherwise, anything can happen in these matches, and if you don't trust Courtois, Andre Onana (£13) is the cheapest starting goalkeeper.