This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The UEFA Euro qualifiers are coming to a close this month with Israel still having a slight chance to finish above Switzerland in Group I. Playing at home, can they get revenge from an earlier defeat?
- Switzerland defeated Israel 3-0 on March 28.
- Switzerland have conceded in all their away games in this season's qualifiers with the exception being the Belarus fixture, including a 2-1 win over Andorra.
- Both teams have significant injuries and will lack some depth. Israel must do without Manor Solomon and Liel Abada for the qualifying stages and Roy Revivo for this match. Switzerland will miss Djibril Sow, Jordan Lotomba and Breel Embolo.
- GAME SCRIPT: Israel have little choice but to attack if they wish to qualify, however unlikely that may be. The Swiss have been unsuccessful at parking the bus after first-half goals but show no signs of relenting from this tactic. The most likely scenario is a relatively early Swiss goal followed by a persistent Israeli fight back with an equalizer and open play to follow. Both teams average about 12 shots per match in European competition. the difference is that Israel have converted 12 percent of theirs whereas Switzerland have turned 19 percent into goals (albeit against the weakest teams in the qualifiers).
- PLAYERS TO WATCH: The lynchpin of Israel's attack should be winger Sagiv Yehezkel if he is fit enough to start after getting a game-ending knock last start. The Anatalyaspor playmaker has a combined expected goal and assist rate of 1.28 per 90 minutes in the tournament. Otherwise, Gavriel Kanichowsky will take his place on left wing and possibly take some corner kicks. Mercurial Salzburg attacking midfielder Oscar Gloukh will likely start as the de facto striker and should to be considered most likely goalscorer after Zeki Amdouni.
- As usual, Xherdan Shaqiri will be controlling the tempo of the match, at least in the first half, and will dominate set pieces. Leverkusen's Granit Xhaka returns as Swiss captain and has enjoyed fantastic form since leaving Arsenal.
- FANTASY MANAGEMENT: The availability of Yehezkel should determine both optimal DFS lineups and the eventual result. Gloukh has to start and must go 90 minutes given the lack of options. He was able to put up a floor of 7.5 DraftKings points at the mud bowl in Pristina and should enjoy a better floor in Budapest as well as having the most goal upside. Shaqiri is the chalk cash captain, coming off a 48.3-point performance against Belarus. Ricardo Rodriguez managed only a 5.3-point floor over 70 minutes last time out but could have more joy getting in behind Israel's defense with Revivo absent, and get back to his floor of six crosses.
- EXACT SCORE PROJECTION: 2-2 (market expectations are built around 0-1 or 0-2 but these do not account for Switzerland's 1.7 xGC).
- BEST BET: Israel Total Team goals over 0.5 at -150
- PROP BET: Single-game parlay: BTTS + 2.5 goals at +235
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The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Steven Vinik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: tropicalbear.
