This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The EFL Cup quarterfinals take place midweek with four of the big six teams involved. There are three matches Wednesday and a huge one Thursday as Tottenham host Manchester United.
For the clubs remaining, a trophy would be a massive boost to their seasons, as some of the teams are currently sitting around the middle of the table with little hope of securing a spot in the top six.
While there's often squad rotation in Cup matches, I think all eight teams will take the quarterfinals very seriously.
EFL Cup Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Arsenal
'No' on both teams to score between Arsenal and Palace -120
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These clubs play back-to-back matches this week, which always adds an element of gamesmanship to team selection. The Gunners were held to a 0-0 draw over the weekend with Everton as they've struggled to generate chances from open play.
Over their last three Premier League matches, all of Arsenal's goals have come from corners. They have become the best set-piece team in the Premier League, but they need to start generating chances from open play if they want their offensive numbers to improve.
Going up against a Crystal Palace side that is solid defensively when sitting in their 5-3-2 or 4-4-2 defensive block means that Arsenal are going to have a really tough time creating chances from open play. Over their last four matches, the Eagles have only conceded 2.9 expected goals and are one of the better teams in the league at defending their penalty area.
The flip side is Arsenal are the best defensive team in the Premier League and are able to exert control against most teams. In their last two matches against Fulham and Everton, Arsenal have only conceded a total of four shots, so I think Palace are going to have a tough time creating chances, as well.
The way I like the play this is Both Teams to Score-No at -120.
Carabao Cup Best Bets for Brentford at Arsenal
Newcastle over 6.5 corners -125
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These two recently met at the GTech Stadium and it was complete chaos. The match ended 4-2 with four goals coming in the first half, as Brentford punished Newcastle in transition repeatedly.
The thing with this match is these two teams are a tale of two places. Brentford are one of the better teams in the Premier League at home, but have been terrible away and the same can be said about Newcastle.
When Newcastle are at home, they like to press high and more aggressively than they do on the road with the crowd at St. James' Park behind them. That leads to sustained pressure and a lot of time spent in the opponent's final third.
Looking at the corners market, Brentford have conceded the most corners per 90 minutes away from home of anyone in the Premier League. Newcastle having that sustained pressure at home I think it's going to lead to a ton of corners and I like the value on over 6.5 corners.
EFL Cup Best Bets for Liverpool at Southampton
Liverpool win to nil against Southampton +175
Russell Martin was sacked after the 5-0 defeat against Tottenham. It's bad times for the Saints who are hurtling towards relegation unless things turn around in a hurry.
These two met not that long ago on the south coast with Liverpool walking away with a 3-2 victory. Although Southampton scored twice in the match, they didn't really create anything of value. In the end, they ended up with 1.82 expected goals, but 1.47 of it came off of Adam Armstrong's missed penalty and rebound. Outside of those two shots, Southampton only generated five other shots and 0.35 expected goals.
Liverpool have become masters at controlling matches under Arne Slot. Patient build up in wide areas combined with outstanding transition in defense has led to Liverpool only allowing 1.01 xG in 11 vs. 11 situations this season.
Southampton will under the management of their U21 coach, so we'll see if the tactics change, but in any case they are going to struggle to generate chances against Liverpool's defense. So, I like the value on Liverpool to win nil at +175
EFL Carabao Cup Betting Picks for Wednesday, Dec. 18
- Arsenal/Crystal Palace BTTS-No (-120)
- Newcastle Over 6.5 corners (-125)
- Liverpool to win nil (+175)
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