This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCH (ET)
- 1:00 pm: Burnley vs. Watford
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Burnley vs. Watford SD Cheat Sheet
Burnley come into this matchup with a 1.40-implied goal total and it's new man Wout Weghorst ($9,800) who leads the way in terms of goalscoring odds at +155 (39.22 percent). Formerly of Bundesliga side VfL Wolfsburg, the Dutchman registered six goals on 38 shots (21 on target) in 18 league appearances and should serve as the focal point of Burnley's attack moving forward.
Watford will be without leading goalscorer Emmanuel Dennis due to suspension, which means it could be a good opportunity to utilize the cheaper attacking options of Watford in Joshua King ($8,600) and Joao Pedro ($8,200).
In terms of captain, I like targeting Weghorst for GPP contests considering he is the most likely player to score, but he only comes fifth in price, which is a significant discount compared to Dwight McNeil ($11,000) and Maxwel Cornet ($10,200), the latter who may not even start given his recent return from international duty.
For a more consistent floor, I would still fade McNeil and instead turn to secondary set-piece taker Ashley Westwood ($7,400), especially considering he leads the team in corners and free kicks. Westwood provides less upside in a central midfield role so should only be captained in cash games. Alternatively, going against Burnley, who have a 43.74 percent chance to win, Cucho Hernandez ($9,400) has the highest floor per 90 minutes of any player in this contest at 11.17 points. He's most likely to enter the starting XI on the wing in the absence of Dennis and could have a firm role on set pieces, depending on who else is in the first starting XI for Roy Hodgson.
I'm expecting each side to grab at least a goal in this contest with a 1-1 draw being the most likely result according to the odds, so fading the two goaltenders looks like a solid play. Instead, someone like defender Matthew Lowton ($7,000), who has generated nine crosses (three accurate) in his last five contests, would be better in cash games and give you a share of the clean sheet if Burnley managed to pull it out. In a similar vein, January transfer Hassane Kamara ($5,000) has sent six crosses in his two games with the club and would allow you to spend up at other positions if you are looking at the Watford upset.
Other value options would certainly include Aaron Lennon ($4,800), who is poised to make his fourth-consecutive start, though he is likely more of a GPP play than anything due to his goal dependence. Of note, his playing time may depend on position because if he starts up front with Cornet on the bench, he'd likely be subbed off early. If he plays on the wing, pairing him with Lowton would give you the right side of the Burnley attack in a decent stack option, as well.
I don't love the center-back options in the showdown slate, but Samir ($4,000) has offered a surprisingly high floor in two matches following his January transfer from Udinese. Either way, it's a solid price point with the potential for a Watford clean sheet at just 24.38 percent.
