Best Bets: EPL, MLS and Ligue 1

Welcome back RotoWire soccer bettors, I hope you enjoyed the international break, and I am ready to get back into some soccer bets! We had a very good week last time: if you followed all 11 tips posted, you would have gone 7-4 with a total profit of 3.55 units, or $355 dollars. That brings our season total up to 14-10 with a profit of 3.85, or $385 dollars. Let's get right into this weekend's bets:

PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)

Prop Bet - Middlesbrough vs. Crystal Palace: Both teams to score = NO @ -140
Saturday, 10:00am

This pick isn't very original, I will admit to that, but I essentially decided I was going to make this pick almost two weeks ago. Watching Middlesbrough on the road against West Brom (yes, I suffered through that whole game) taught me everything I need to know about their strategy to avoid relegation: sit back, stifle the opposition and look for cautious counterattack opportunities. This does not bode well for Crystal Palace, who have stifled themselves in the infancy of this season. Crystal Palace is the lowest scoring team in the league, and they won't be expected to have any better luck against this defensive unit. Don't get me wrong, I am not interested in Middlesbrough's offensive abilities at this point in time, so going with NO on the BTTS score prop is a much safer bet than Middlesbrough to win, given the 0-0 potential.

Total - West Ham United vs. Watford: Over 2.5 @ +105
Saturday, 10:00am

I know, I know, West Ham again?! Bear with me everyone, I know my West Ham bets have been doom and gloom so far, but when you look deeper into the numbers they are not as far off as this might seem. What has happened is we are getting the chance to buy incredibly low on a team that has still scored in 16 straight matches in a matchup that averages over three goals per game in the last five years. Watford is one of three teams that has conceded two goals per game early into this season, and while defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea can be blamed on their schedule (somewhat), they have still suffered from a few inexcusable defensive performances at home while playing in front of an increasingly vulnerable keeper. A loss to Gillingham in EFL play cements their underdog status in the league, and I see West Ham lighting them up this week.

LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)

Prop Bet - Rennes vs. Caen: Double Chance = Caen or Draw @ -130
Sunday, 11:00am

Caen have had a great start to their season, and while their draw has been a bit more favorable there is no reason there should be this low of a price on a double chance outcome. I have Caen as a slight favorite to win this game, and they should not be threatened by being on the road. Rennes look okay on the surface, going 1-1-1 to begin, but Nancy may be the weakest club in top league French football, and Montpellier is not a club that should present issues. Rennes managed only two shots on net in that match and generally looked out of sorts. I just can't see them finished off a surprisingly strong Caen side, and I'm willing to pay a little bit to place a wager on that.

Total - Guingamp vs. Montpellier: Over 2.5 @ +140
Saturday, 2:00pm

This is a bet more on price and potential than on results so far this season. If you are hesitant, most of the popular US books are offering an Over 2 option where you can add the push for safety, albeit with a little bit of juice, but I am laying it out there. Guingamp are looking very good in the early stages and should easily handle Montpellier at home. However Montpellier have not lacked for offense, as they are yet to be shut out in the infancy of this season. I am not expecting a 4-2 slugfest, but I think each team will find the board and there is a good chance that Guingamp knocks in the winner.

MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (USA)

Money line - Chicago Fire vs. Toronto FC: Toronto FC @ +210
Saturday, 8:30pm

Cue the TFC bias here, but I am throwing the numbers away on this bet. Sometimes it's important to play situations rather than statistics, and trailing NYC FC by one point with one game in hand puts Toronto in a very good spot as the season winds down. Remember, in MLS play the top two teams in each conference receive a first round bye in the playoffs so there is still everything to play for, and Toronto have won their last two matches away from BMO Field. Granted, they have never won an MLS match in Chicago, but with the strength of this team and Chicago having nothing to play for the odds are simply too good. +210 odds are essentially a 32 percent chance of winning, whereas I have Toronto around a 50-55 percent chance of winning. This is a textbook value play.

Total - Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake: Over 2.5 @ -140
Total - San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders: Under 2.5 @ -135
Both Saturday, 10:30pm

I've listed both of these MLS totals because I have high confidence in the pair of them, but unfortunately the oddsmakers do as well. You will need to drink some of the juice if you want to place these bets, but depending on your book you may get better odds on one over the other. Watch the lines move, and if one ends up being much cheaper than the other, that's the one you play. I, however, would recommend you play both if your bankroll allows. Do we even need to break this down? When Portland is the home team, the over has hit in the last five matches, and they get a visit from RSL, who haven't been shut out in over a month and come in off a great last-minute draw against LA. San Jose is the second stingiest home team in the Western Conference and scores the fewest number of goals as home team. Seattle is not going to be the team that opens them up, and Vegas knows this.

SERIE A (ITALY)

Whoever sets the odds for Serie A matches must have read my article last week. A week removed from being spoiled for choice in this league, everything has tightened up and there isn't much value hanging around. Milan and Juventus are good bets to stick into parlays if you are looking to combine with maybe a PSG or a Barcelona, but the odds are not good enough for us to comfortably place singles on them. I do have a slight lean on Bologna in their match with Cagliari, but again, I need to see the prices change before I can make a move. I will monitor this closely, but as far as this article goes, we will not be making any money line bets in this league this week.

Total - Genoa vs. Fiorentina Over 2.5 @ +105
Sunday, 9:00am

Am I missing something here? Why is this plus money? I'm struggling; Genoa opened the season with a pair of 3-1 wins, one of those coming on the road, and play host to Fiorentina, who have opened the season well themselves: a home win and a tight matchup on the road against Juventus (which also hit the over). There isn't much to argue with here: a home team that has seen four goals per game in a matchup it should win at plus money: put down some money here.

BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)

Money line - Freiburg vs. Borussia Monchengladbach: Borussia Monchengladbach @ +100
Saturday, 9:30am

With the season being so young, there isn't too much to analyze in this one but the price is simply too good to pass up. Much like the Toronto FC pick above, I'm not 100 percent positive that M'Gladbach are going to come in and romp Freiburg on the road, but I do think they have a better chance than their odds imply. They played very well in Champions League qualifiers and scored a tidy opening week win, and I can't fade even money on them at this point.

Much like in Serie A money line bets, totals in Bundesliga play are going to be tough to predict. Good luck if you attempt this, but I will not be putting money at risk until I have a clearer picture of this league. I envision a lot of two and three-goal total games this weekend and have to tip my cap to oddsmakers and move on. No totals bets in Bundesliga this week.

LA LIGA (SPAIN)

With the incredible heat in Spain at the moment and the risk of matches being moved to later times, rescheduled or abandoned, there is too much volatility to put any money at risk. Let's let this week play out however it does and we can get back to normal next week.

AROUND THE WORLD

Fenerbahce vs. Bursaspor: Over 3 @ +100 (Sunday, 1:00pm)
Arsenal Tula vs. Zenit St. Petersburg: Under 2.5 @ -130 (Sunday 12:00pm)
Levante vs. Real Zaragoza: Both teams to score = NO @ -130 (Saturday, 2:00pm)
Sandhausen vs. Kaiserslautern: Over 2.5 @ +115 (Sunday, 7:30am)