Best Bets: EPL, Ligue 1, MLS and More

Last weekend was a very nice weekend for RotoWire bettors, as we hit on a few higher-odds prop bets and things generally went according to plan. We went 10-6 and finished +5.88 units, or $588. That puts our five week total to 37-33-1, +4.13 units ($413). Now let's build on this with a few selections from around the world this weekend:

PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)

Manchester United vs. Stoke City: Manchester United to win both halves @ +175
Sunday, 7:00 a.m. (EDT)

Weekends like this are the reason prop bets exist. At first glance around the Premier League, there isn't too much to love with money lines or totals. However, that is why we love advanced statistics. I am so thrilled I left Stoke before the season started because I don't want to be anywhere near whatever this team has turned into, and a match against United at Old Trafford is not going to cure anything. Stoke City have played three matches as the visitor this season, and they have held the lead for an impressive zero minutes of that time. In fact, they've only been level for 93 minutes of play. Their away schedule has been Middlesbrough, Everton and Crystal Palace and while they've been losing at halftime in two of those three, it only gets worse when you look at their performances against Tottenham and Manchester City, who they had the luxury of facing at home. I would never touch United to win at -325 as a single bet, but there's a great chance they can win both halves at much improved odds.

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester City: Under 2.5 @ +110
Sunday, 9:15 a.m.

When I analyze data for totals, I always discount any data that doesn't fit into the narrative. For example, when a top team plays a team in the relegation zone I tend to look at other games with similar scenarios, and in this case we have two of the best teams in the league facing off. Yes, Manchester City have hit the over in all six of their games this season, including match totals of three, four and five goals on the road. I don't see them rolling over Spurs as easy as they knocked off Swansea City or Stoke City, however, and Spurs have kept the total under 2.5 in every home game this season (including a 1-1 draw against the very strong Liverpool). Given the added bonus of both teams playing Champions League matches as we speak, there could be a few minutes of readjustment in the early stages of this match.

LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)

Nice vs. Lorient: Nice @ -130
Sunday, 11:00 a.m.

There's really nothing more I can say about Nice at this point without rehashing from previous articles. Oddsmakers just don't give enough credit to the squad; you know, the undefeated club at the top of the Ligue 1 table. Nice have scored in every home match and Lorient have conceded in every away match; in fact, they have yet to find any points in their road schedule. Going into Nice, where the home team scores 75 percent of their goals, is going to make for a long afternoon. I had originally capped this game at around -200 for Nice yet they get no respect again. Struggling PSG are a -385 favorite coming off international play and facing the fourth-best road team in the country, just as a quick example how much name value adds to the price.

Metz vs. Monaco: Over 2.5 @ -110 (Saturday 2:00 p.m.)
Angers vs. Marseille: Over 2 @ -125 (Sunday 9:00 a.m.)

I actually like a few totals this weekend in Ligue 1, but these are my favorites. At just two goals, there is no way we can fade the over between Angers and Marseille. A lot of this total probably has to do with Marseille gathering zero of a possible nine points as the visitor, but they have actually scored in all three of those matches (multiple goals in two). Angers have hit the over in two of their three home matches, only failing to solve Nice. They also conceded in every home match. In Metz, the home team have had tough luck with conceding 62 percent of their goals in their home stadium, and they get a visit from Monaco, who have scored five goals in three road matches and hit the over in 86 percent of their total games this season.

MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (USA)

Colorado Rapids vs. Portland Timbers: Under 2.5 @ -110
Saturday, 9:00 p.m.

Portland are the worst away team in the Western Conference; in fact, they have yet to win as the visitor this season and have only scored more than one goal once. They are leaky defensively on the road, allowing three goals in three consecutive road losses, but a trip to Colorado is what all defenses need to look good. As the home team, Colorado score one or less goals in almost 60 percent of their games (they have won 35 percent of their home games 1-0 with a further 21.4 percent ending 0-0).

New England Revolution vs. Sporting Kansas City: Under 3 @ -125
Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

Again, I see the thought behind the higher total from Vegas in this match but the advanced data will clear things up. Revs matches are averaging 2.84 goals, but that is inflated due to their poor road defending, where they concede 1.65 goals per match, compared to just 1.20 at home. The same misleading stats are found on the KC side, where they also play to a 2.48 goals per match average. However, when on the road there is a dramatic decrease due to their 0.73 goals scored as the visitor in comparison to 1.23 as the home team. These are dramatic differences, and with the total set at 3.0 goals and the safety of a push, it's worth laying some money on these teams that hit the under 2.5 more than half the time anyways.

SERIE A (ITALY)

Udinese vs. Lazio: Over 2.5 @ +110
Saturday 2:45 p.m.

This is a really great piece of value this weekend. Lazio are looking like a quality squad through the opening weeks of the season, and Udinese are actually scoring in their home stadium. Historic results aren't kind to overs in this series (January 2014 is the last time it hit), but I like current data much better. Udinese have scored in all three home matches, while Lazio scored four times as the visitor against similarly-positioned Atalanta. Udinese are averaging three goals per game at home, while Lazio are an even more impressive 3.67 goals per match as the visitor. Granted that is a bit skewed, but at plus money I can't pass this one up.

Cagliari vs. Crotone: Both teams to score = NO @ -110
Sunday, 9:00 p.m.

Another great little piece of value in Italy this weekend; I was on the fence about this bet until I saw the price. With Crotone struggling so badly on the road, it is going to take more than 90 minutes against one of the better home teams in the league to fix their anemic attack. Crotone have scored just four goals through their first six games, and only one of those came as the road team (against Empoli, in their only home win). Cagliari, on the other hand, have yet to lose at home and only surrendered two points in an entertaining draw with Roma. They had trouble shutting out Sampdoria, but I can't see Crotone being able to make drastic improvements to their attack during this outing.

LA LIGA (SPAIN)

Celta Vigo vs. Barcelona: Barcelona -1.5 @ +105
Sunday, 2:45pm

Whatever has been troubling Barcelona at home, it seems as though regular trips away from Camp Nou are needed to find their usual form. It's been an ugly home campaign, but Barcelona have scored five in each of their last two league matches and they get to face Celta Vigo, a team that concedes more at home than they do on the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see Celta Vigo score, as there have been a few defensive miscues, but the offensive firepower of Barcelona should be able to erase any mistakes. A goal and a half is a perfectly acceptable handicap for this match, and to get plus money on it makes it a no brainer.

Deportivo la Coruna vs. Sporting Gijon: Both teams to score = YES @ +100
Saturday, 2:45 p.m.

With a low total and two poor teams playing each other, there is always a risk betting both teams to score, however, I feel it is entirely justified to go after the plus money being offered. Deportivo have only scored three goals this season, but all three were as the home team. While Sporting are an even bigger mess, only scoring once as the road team, let's not forget that they have won two of their first three home games and their only loss was to an angry Barcelona. Deportivo have conceded in every home game so far and I see this finishing as an uneventful 1-1.

AROUND THE WORLD

Willem II vs. Feyenoord: Feyenoord -1 @ -110 (Sunday, 8:30 a.m.)
Kryliya Sovetov vs. Anzhi Makhachkala: Anzhi Makhachkala pk @ +125 (Saturday, 7:30 a.m.)
Legia Warsaw vs. Lechia Gdansk: Lechia Gdansk +.5 @ -135 (Saturday, 2:30 p.m.)

Bet Over 2.5 on:
Krasnodar vs. Rubin Kazan @ -115 (Sunday, 12:00 p.m.)
Brentford vs. Wigan Athletic @ -115 (Saturday, 10:00 a.m.)
Cracovia Krakow vs. Korona Kielce @ -11- (Sunday, 9:30 a.m.)
Dijon vs. Montepelier @ +140 (Saturday, 2:00 p.m.)

Bet Under 2.5 on:
Roda JC vs. NEC Nijmegen @ -110 (Saturday, 1:45 p.m.)
Viking vs. Start @ +140 (Sunday, 2:00 p.m.)
Sheffield Wednesday vs. Brighton @ -130 (Saturday, 10:00 a.m.)

Bet Both teams to score = NO on:
Arka Gdynia vs. Piast Gliwice @ -125 (Saturday, 9:30 a.m.)
Karabukspor vs. Trabzonspor @ -115 (Saturday, 9:00 a.m.)