NASCAR Barometer: Harvick Enters Championship Finale With Texas Win

Kevin Harvick hit all the right notes in Texas, first qualifying on pole and then leading 119 laps to tally his fourth win of the season and arguably the most important yet. His Texas win earns him a spot among the final four championship contenders in two weeks, and wrests momentum from the Joe Gibbs Racing team with one of Harvick's best tracks next up in ISM Raceway. Sunday's race was a banner day for Stewart-Haas Racing with all four drivers leading laps and a sweep of the top three finishing positions. The only question remaining is if they can do it again in Miami just two weeks from now.

This week presents the final race of the final playoff elimination rounds. Two of the four championship spots remain to be filled, with Martin Truex Jr. the other winner to have secured his spot in the finale. Harvick has been the best at Phoenix in the past, but Kyle Busch is starting to stake a claim of his own at the circuit. Busch has yet to secure a spot in the final four but has won each of the last two races at the track. He sits third in the playoff standings with just 22 points separating him from Denny Hamlin in fifth. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, the remaining championship contenders, are facing must-win situations to make it to Miami with a shot at the title.

UPGRADE

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick booked his spot in the championship finale with an emphatic Texas performance. He started from pole, won the first stage and then went on to win the race. The win was Harvick's third straight in the fall Texas race and propels him forward to one of his best tracks, Phoenix. He led 119 laps in all on Sunday and wrested away important momentum from the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates with just two races remaining in the season. Harvick has nine Phoenix wins in 33 career starts and could make it even more difficult for the rest of the field this week. He has not finished lower than 13th there since 2011 with just one finish outside of the top 10 in that same period.

Joey Logano – Logano just keeps holding steady among the top four drivers in the championship hunt no matter what adversity is thrown at him. Two weeks ago, he collided with Hamlin and the wall, and then last week at Texas he suffered damage. In both races he salvaged top finishes and he has a 20-point cushion over Hamlin heading into the final race to make the championship finale. Logano won this Phoenix race in 2016 and finished 10th there earlier this season. He has an average finish of 15.2 from 21 career starts at the track. He still will need a perfect race this week to qualify for another championship finale, but this team has been digging and scraping to make things happen.

Aric Almirola – Almirola had an excellent outing at Texas. He picked up a stage win and a runner-up finish. The finish was his best finish of the year and his third top-five of the season. After a run of 12 races outside of the top 10, Almirola has now bagged two of his three top-fives in the last four races. Things are improving for this team, and the next step will be to add consistency to the mix. His only other top-five of the season came at Phoenix, which could spell optimism for another this week. He has back-to-back fourth-place finishes at ISM Raceway and four consecutive top-10s. Assuming there are no early setbacks for him this weekend, he could be an attractive fantasy selection.

Alex Bowman – Fantasy owners may wish to keep Bowman in mind for their early 2020 playoff picks. The Hendrick Motorsports driver may be out of contention for this year's title, but he continues to show that he can make things happen for himself, seemingly pulling out top finishes from thin air. He ran fifth in Texas last week, which was his best finish at the track in nine series starts. His prior best at the circuit was just 13th. His top-five Sunday was his seventh of the season and second in the last five races. His best Phoenix finish of sixth came when started from pole in this race in 2016. He crashed out of the last two at the venue but has started inside the top 10 in each of the last four.

DOWNGRADE

Chase Elliott – Elliott was already facing a difficult situation in Texas, but things got even worse when he got loose and made contact with the wall early in Sunday's race. Elliott's 32nd-place finish was his second in a row and puts him dead last among the final eight championship contenders. He will have to win this week in Phoenix to have a shot at claiming the title in Miami. In seven Phoenix starts, Elliott has a best finish of second, an average finish of 10.1 and four top-10s. He'll need to be at his best this week to avoid elimination, and at this point luck doesn't seem to be on his side. This team has to do it all and nothing less than a win will suffice.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski was looking good in the early stages at Texas but tried a different line and lost control. Contact with the wall and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. forced him out of the race and gave him his third finish of 30th or worse of the season. He was already out of the championship hunt and is focused on finishing first among the rest at this point. Keselowski has never won at Phoenix but did finish second in this race last season. From 20 career starts he has an average finish of 13.8 along with six top-fives and nine top-10s. Fantasy owners will have to remember that if he's in position to help teammate Logano advance, he may be forced to cede.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin lost control off of the final turn during the first stage Sunday and suffered heavy damage as his car bounced through the infield grass. He continued after making repairs but only managed to finish 28th, which leaves him just outside of the top four contenders with one race remaining to claim a spot in the championship fight. Hamlin will now need a smooth race and top finish in Phoenix to ensure he arrives in Miami among the top four drivers. Hamlin's only Phoenix win came in the spring of 2012, but he does have two top-fives and three top-10s in the last five races there. He finished 13th in this race last season and will need something better than that this week to remain in championship contention.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson went from leading 40 laps Sunday to losing control and hitting the wall in the final segment of the race. The No. 48 has been starting to gain some traction in the climb back to the top and seemed likely to continue that trend last week. The contact stopped that progress with a 34th-place finish, though. Despite two top-10s in his last five races, Johnson also had three finishes outside of the top 30 in the same span. The team seems to have found the pace to compete at the front but needs to get the consistent top finishes before it can hope to find a long-awaited win. Johnson was eighth at Phoenix this spring, so a return to the top 10 might be in the cards this week.

Darrell Wallace Jr. – Bubba Wallace's up and down season continued again last week after he experienced a high two weeks ago at Martinsville. This team has a lot of ground to cover and Wallace deserves to get a ride that matches his ability. That doesn't look likely to come soon, though. At tracks where the driver counts for more than the car, he can still be a viable fantasy option, however. That is probably not the case this week at Phoenix. His best finish at the track was 10th in this race last season. He was arguably in a better position than he is now, however. Earlier this year he finished 22nd after starting 23rd.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Daniel Suarez – Suarez seemed to come to life at Texas along with his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates. His third-place finish was his second consecutive at the track, and those are his two best finishes so far this season. He now has four top-five and 11 top-10 finishes this season and sits 17th in the standings. Sunday's finish snapped a run of five races where he finished outside of the top 30 four times. It will be interesting for fantasy players to see how he performs this week coming off the high of Texas. He finished 23rd at ISM Raceway earlier this season and has two top-10 finishes from five career starts at the track. This team is searching for consistent top results and still has ground to cover in its pursuit.