Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview: Fourth of July Fireworks

We return to racing under the lights this week.  The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series travels back to where the season started this weekend at Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The second Daytona race of the season is held July 4th week every year.  Unlike the Daytona 500, the Monster Energy Cup Series races under the lights for this dramatic and entertaining racing event.  

This will be the third superspeedway race of the 2019 season, so we should now begin to see some trends forming on these larger ovals.  With the same aero-rules package being used for the second time this season at Daytona, we hope to see some the same racing that made the Daytona 500 a competitive and exciting affair.  If the drivers can duplicate the action we saw in May at Talladega, we should be in for a thrilling ride this Saturday night.  The 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season featured a whopping 38 lead changes, which was a six-season high at the track.  The Daytona 500 only offered a 15 lead changes, so we will see if more lead swaps will happen this weekend after two superspeedway races are in the bank with this new rules package.  The pack racing that super speedways create lead to lots of lead changes and parity in these events.  However, we also need to remember the 21 cars that DNF'd at Daytona is also a season high mark, and really illustrates the luck side of the equation in this style of racing too.  So we have to be mindful of the multi-car crashes that the pack racing produces and the luck factor that is associated with this style of racing.  We should be in for that same style of fireworks in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 this weekend.  With this event at Daytona being held at night it always introduces a new dynamic to this style of racing.  While there are many parallels we'll be able to draw from the Daytona 500, we fully expect the action in Saturday night's race to have its own unique characteristics.

Since this is the second race of the season at DIS, we can look back to February's Daytona 500 and even the race at Talladega this spring for some indications on which teams are running at top speed on the superspeedway ovals.  This information will for the foundation of our picks for this week's race.  We'll also pay close attention to the historical data at Daytona International Speedway.  While average finish position is not always a good statistic to rely on at these huge tracks, the loop stats will illustrate the drivers that lead laps, make quality passes and dominate at Daytona on a regular basis.  The data shown below covers the last 14 years or 29 races at Daytona International Speedway.

Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin won this year's Daytona 500.  The victory made him a two-time winner of the Great American Race and also made him a three-time winner on superspeedway ovals.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has always been a consistent performer at the Daytona track, but it appears now he's a major threat to win with two victories in just the last four seasons.  The late cautions, several restarts and mayhem that were the late stages of the Daytona 500 made for a perfect situation for Hamlin, and he wasted no time seizing that opportunity.  When the series traveled to Talladega in late April it was a total free-for-all, but Chase Elliott managed to lead the most laps with 45.  Joey Logano would also lead 37 laps, but would come up short of victory lane.  It would be Elliott walking away with that victory.  This duo has the recent stranglehold on the Talladega oval, although they've both also had more limited success at Daytona.  They always show up with fast race cars at both superspeedways. 

While he didn't win either race, Alex Bowman will be looking to make his mark this Saturday night.  He finished runner-up at Talladega this spring, and he finished a respectable 11th-place in the Daytona 500.  Bowman was a factor in both races, and a serious threat to win.  The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has good speed in his No. 88 Chevrolet, and is coming off the momentum of his first-career win at Chicago this past week.  Aside from these storylines, Aric Almirola has been the most consistent superspeedway performer for the Ford camp the last three seasons.  The driver of the No. 10 Ford Mustang has one victory (Talladega), four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in his last nine combined starts between Daytona and Talladega.  Almirola, combined with Logano, is really this manufacturer's best hope when it comes to upsetting the surging Chevrolets and fast Toyotas this weekend.  We'll take a look at recent history, and the 2019 Daytona 500 and give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing ace is trying to build some momentum as we head into the summer stretch of the schedule.  Logano rides into Daytona weekend atop the overall driver standings, and looking to pick up another win that would bolster his Chase for the Cup standing.  This will be the perfect oval for the driver of the No. 22 Ford to snatch that victory and consolidate his high ranking in the driver standings.  Logano won the 2015 Daytona 500, and he won last season at Talladega.  He now boasts four-combined victories between Daytona and Talladega. At this present time, there's no more dominant driver in the series on these big ovals than Logano and his Penske Racing team. 

Chase Elliott – The young Hendrick Motorsports driver pulled a bit of a disappointing disappearing act at Chicago this past week.  After starting 13th on the grid, he peddled to a somewhat disappointing 11th-place finish in the Windy City.  Fortunately for Elliott, he's our last superspeedway winner with his victory in Talladega this spring.  That performance should boost his morale returning to Daytona.  While the No. 9 Chevrolet has always had pole-winning speed at Daytona, the commensurate finishes have not typically followed.  Now that Elliott has gotten the proverbial win monkey off his back at one of these huge tracks, the good performances should begin to flow.  We have a high degree of confidence in this driver and team right now, and the speed they showed at Talladega should once again be present in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Denny Hamlin – The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been battling inconsistency of late.  However, Hamlin won at Daytona earlier this season, and that makes him a dangerous man this Saturday night.  He's coming to the perfect oval and race to get his season back on track for his JGR team.  Hamlin has been stellar and has had great speed on these large ovals all the way back to the start of the 2014 season.  In just his last seven combined starts alone between Daytona and Talladega, the veteran driver boasts 67 laps led, one win, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes.  Considering the speed that the No. 11 Toyota has shown on the superspeedway tracks the last few seasons, Hamlin should be a strong Top 10 performer with a decent shot at the win.     

Alex Bowman – The amazing performance Bowman and the No. 88 team turned in at Chicagoland Speedway last Sunday netted the young driver his first-career victory.  It won't be his last.  The surging No. 88 team could follow up as soon as this weekend with career win two.  Bowman is a gifted superspeedway driver, and the No. 88 Chevrolet team has a long-running reputation on these huge ovals.  Bowman finished runner-up in our last superspeedway start at Talladega, and he finished a respectable 11th-place in the season-opening Daytona 500.  This surging driver and team have qualified on the front row for their last three-straight Daytona starts.  With sky-high morale, and tons of momentum, Bowman will be a factor at Daytona International Speedway.

Solid Plays – Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran is one of the most consistent superspeedway performers in the series the last three seasons.  Almirola very nearly won last season's Daytona 500, but he made up for it later last year with a Talladega victory in the fall.  Almirola has six Top-10 finishes in his last nine starts between Daytona and Talladega, and only two finishes outside the Top 20 during that same span at these tracks. SHR is consistently giving him race-winning cars on these ovals as Almirola's 27 laps led and ninth-place finish at Talladega earlier this spring illustrate.  The driver of the No. 10 Ford is a good outside contender for the win and sure bet for a Top-10 finish Saturday night in this 400-mile war under the lights. 

Kurt Busch – The 2017 Daytona 500 champion will return to the scene of his big win three seasons ago.  Busch has always been a consistent finisher on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega, but his ability to win at them is only a more recent development.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has enviable career numbers racing on the huge ovals.  Busch cracks the Top 5 at Daytona at a stunning 36-percent rate and the Top 10 at an impressive 47-percent rate.  His Talladega performances are equally impressive.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet owns a 54-percent Top-10 rate at that oval as well.  The last time we saw Busch in action on a superspeedway he qualified 14th on the grid, raced with the leaders all afternoon long and finished a strong sixth-place at Talladega in April.  It's that kind of speed he'll bring to Daytona this Saturday night. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has become a fantasy racing staple each time we visit the big tracks of Daytona and Talladega.  Stenhouse has nabbed two victories and four Top-5 finishes in his last 10 starts between these two ovals.  He's led a combined 135 laps during this span, so he's not just being an opportunistic finisher, he's racing up front the majority of these races.  Stenhouse won this event two seasons ago with some thrilling, late-race dramatics.  That's the upside the driver of the No. 17 Ford brings to the table.  His knowledge of pack racing in the draft, and keeping his car in the running until the endgame begins in these wild races.  Stenhouse has led 32 combined laps in the two superspeedway races thus far this season, but his luck was a bit off in those finishes.  He'll get the finish he deserves in Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Kyle Busch – Busch has been consistently fast at both Daytona and Talladega for much of his career.  Consistently finishing these races has always been an issue.  The reason for optimism this weekend is what Busch did in the season-opening Daytona 500.  He stayed stride-for-stride with Denny Hamlin in the closing laps and pushed him to a Daytona 500 victory, while claiming a stellar runner-up finish for himself.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star followed that up with a 10th-place finish at Talladega in April, so 2019 has been a better-than-average season for Busch on these huge ovals.  While Busch does have a historical tendency to fade to irrelevance in superspeedway racing, we believe this time around will be a weekend to deploy the No. 18 Toyota.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona who can provide a solid finish

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski used to be the gold standard when it comes to superspeedway racing, but his performances have cooled a bit the last couple seasons.  We've moved him to the sleepers list for this very reason, but we still need to keep him on our fantasy radar for the pure homerun potential.  While the Penske Racing star has had more success and collected more trophies at the Alabama oval, he does bring some value to Daytona.  Keselowski won this event three seasons ago in a dominant performance.  He led 115 laps and pounded the field into the pavement for his first-ever Daytona win.  The risk side of the equation is that he's crashed out of four of his last five Daytona races.  It truly is either "checkers or wreckers" for the No. 2 Ford team, but everyone needs to be fully aware of the upside Keselowski brings to the table.    

Kyle Larson – The Chip Ganassi Racing star is fresh off a runner-up finish and entertaining battle to the checkered flag with Alex Bowman this past week at Chicago.  The No. 42 team appears to be climbing out of the hole they've been in most of the season.  Larson's historical record at superspeedway racing is less than encouraging.  He only has only one Top-10 finish in his last 10 starts between Daytona and Talladega.  That sample is indicative of his career at this style racing.  However, the one Top 10 is noteworthy.  It came in this season's Daytona 500 and was a strong seventh-place finish.  He displayed great speed and skill in that battle, and it's likely a turning point for him at this particular oval.  The performance has to boost Larson's confidence returning to Daytona this weekend.  With a two-race Top-10 streak in tow, Larson is racing well right now.           

Austin Dillon – It's been an up-and-down season for Dillon and the No. 3 team, but coming off the steady Chicago Top-10 finish there's hope for a more consistent second half of the season.  Superspeedway racing has always been a strength for Dillon although more recent starts have been a bit lean.  The Richard Childress Racing driver has always fared better at the Daytona oval than at Talladega.  Seven of his 12-career starts at the Florida speedway have netted Top-10 finishes, and that includes two of his last three Daytona starts which includes the 2018 Daytona 500 victory.  Dillon seems poised to hit a mini-hot streak right now, and Daytona is the perfect setup to start.  For weekly lineup fantasy leagues, he makes a perfect play for salary cap or limited start games. 

Ryan Newman – The 2008 Daytona 500 winner has always been a steady performer on the superspeedways.  Newman has enjoyed success throughout his 18-season career at Daytona, and hasn't lost a step.  He has three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes at the Florida oval in his last four starts.  That works out to a surprising 8.8 average finish over the span, and well better than his career average at Daytona of 18.8.  In recent seasons Roush Fenway Racing has been known for speed in superspeedway racing, and they've powered Newman's teammate, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., to two victories on these huge ovals.  The driver of the No. 6 Ford has been equally successful at Talladega.  In fact, he has six Top 10's in his last eight starts at both ovals heading into this weekend's action.  Now those are results you simply can't ignore.   

Erik Jones – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver seems to have figured out superspeedway racing over the past year.  Jones' early efforts at Daytona and Talladega were disastrous, but last year the light flipped on.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota won this event at Daytona one year ago, and he now has three Top-10 finishes in his last four superspeedway starts.  That includes a strong eighth-place finish at Talladega last October, and a return to Daytona in February and stellar third-place finish in the Daytona 500.  Jones and his team have the speed, and the young driver has figured out this style of racing.  He used great teamwork with his Joe Gibbs teammates to dominate at Daytona earlier this season, we could be in for a sequel Saturday night.     

Ryan Preece – The rookie driver won't likely be on many fantasy player's radar screens this weekend, but in just a short time Preece has impressed us on the big ovals of Daytona and Talladega.  The JTG Daugherty Racing youngster made his Daytona debut earlier this season and navigated a wild race and many wrecks to finish eighth in the Daytona 500.  To prove that was no fluke he made his first-career Talladega start in April and navigated a calmer event to finish a brilliant third-place in the GEICO 500.  We realize the sample size is a bit small, but you can't argue with the results.  Those types of finishes don't happen by accident.  It takes a rare combination of good luck and driving skill to collect those finishes at these two challenging ovals.  Preece is a good "deep off the bench" option in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kevin Harvick – Normally Harvick is near the top of our racing articles, but he comes back to the pack in superspeedway racing.  The veteran SHR driver has enviable career numbers racing at Daytona International Speedway.  Harvick has two-career victories and 14 Top-10 finishes at the historic speedway in Florida.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford has 15 laps led in his last four starts at Daytona.  However, his luck hasn't held up for the big finishes.  Harvick is coming off a subpar 14th-place finish at Chicago and struggling to find the Top 5 the last few weeks, so he is scuffling as we return to Daytona this weekend.  Harvick has crashed out of six of his last eight superspeedway races, so he makes a very high risk fantasy racing play at Daytona this Saturday night. 

Clint Bowyer – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran is coming off a frustrating performance at Chicago.  He had a car capable of finishing in the Top 10, but made too many mistakes to overcome and finished 37th.  Bowyer has been a top performer on superspeedways for most of his career.  In 27 Daytona starts he has 12 Top-10 finishes which checks in at a respectable 44-percent rate.  He led 4 laps and finished runner-up in this event two years ago with his SHR No. 14 team.  However, Bowyer has fallen on some hard times in recent superspeedway and Daytona outings.  He's only cracked the Top 10 once in his last five Daytona starts, and he's one for his last seven superspeedway starts.  This season alone Bowyer has 20th- and 29th-place finishes at Daytona at Talladega.  It's best to pass on this currently slumping driver and team.

Martin Truex Jr. – The Furniture Row Racing veteran has not had a problem with speed of late, nor has speed been an issue on the larger ovals.  However, superspeedway racing has been fraught with danger for this driver and team, so the results have not consistently followed.  Daytona will provide an opportunity for the No. 19 Toyota team to get the finish they deserve in this style of racing.  Truex did finish runner-up in this event one year ago, but that's been the outlier.  This veteran has only four Top-10 finishes in 28 starts at this facility.  That works out to a lowly 14-percent Top-10 rate.  Truex has just one Top 10 in his last 10 superspeedway starts combined.  It's best to stash him on the bench this week, and save him for an intermediate oval in the upcoming schedule.    

Darrell Wallace Jr. – In 2018 Wallace captured our hearts and minds with his brilliant runner-up finish in the Daytona 500.  Since then, it's been mostly downhill for the young driver on the larger ovals.  In seven combined starts between Daytona and Talladega the Richard Petty Motorsports driver has just that single Top-10 finish as opposed to two finishes outside the Top 30, which were both crashes and DNF's.  That is noteworthy because both happened this season at the two ovals.  Wallace made some overly aggressive mistakes in those races, and paid the price by winding up back in the garage area before the checkered flag.  The No. 43 Chevrolet team is simply trending in the wrong direction in this style of racing entering July Daytona weekend.