FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: Big Oval Racing

As we put the action of Nashville Superspeedway behind us, we look forward to this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series will pay their first and only visit of the season to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Historically, there have been two annual events at the Michigan oval, but a schedule shakeup a few seasons ago has trimmed the action to just one race at the high speed, two-mile track. This facility has wowed us for years with some of the fastest speeds recorded in all of NASCAR. At its height we saw a pole qualifying lap of 206.558 mph in 2014 by Jeff Gordon, and that still stands as the pole qualifying record at MIS. The speeds have gradually drifted downwards in recent seasons due to many aerodynamic and performance changes to the Cup Series car, but we still see qualifying laps in the mid-190's. With this being the lone event of 2026 at Michigan International Speedway there will be a lot of unknowns about handling and aerodynamics. Other than the superspeedway ovals of Daytona and Talladega, we have not raced on a large oval this season. That is due in part to the loss of Sonoma Raceway a few seasons ago. That's going to put us at a current performance disadvantage with no recent data to review. Still, current streaks and historical data will be the backbone of our research this week.    

The oval in Michigan has similar aerodynamic and raw horsepower characteristics to Pocono Raceway, but at Michigan the drivers stay wide open the full lap where as there is a good degree of braking in the corners at Pocono. So, while Pocono is a good comp for this weekend, we'll really need to also examine last season's race at MIS. There were 11 different drivers who led at least a lap and 15 lead changes in last June's FireKeepers Casino 400. That parity and action made for a thrilling race that would be decided by just 1-second, due to Denny Hamlin running down and passing William Byron late for the lead. We'll see if we're in for the same great action this Sunday.   

We'll be looking at recent performance leading up to the FireKeepers Casino 400, as that data will be useful and it will give us an idea of who is hot coming to Michigan this week. However, short term history for Michigan International Speedway should serve us well too, probably as far back as 2019. The drivers who have performed well at MIS over the years are certainly worth some added scrutiny. The loop stats shown below cover the last 21 years or 37 races at Michigan International Speedway.

Throughout the years Michigan International Speedway was a track of parity. It seemed that any manufacturer was a contender for victory lane each time we visited the Irish Hills. However, the last few seasons have seen Michigan become a track of streaks. Ford drivers had reeled off nine-straight victories at the two-mile oval until Tyler Reddick's victory in this event two years ago broke that streak and gave Toyota their first win at Michigan since 2015. Denny Hamlin would win last year's Michigan battle and give Toyota a current two-race win streak at the track. Chevrolet drivers haven't found victory lane in Brooklyn, Michigan since Kyle Larson's last win way back in 2017. Does the bowtie brand have what it takes to halt Toyota's success here and begin a streak of their own? All answers we will receive this Sunday afternoon at the conclusion of the FireKeepers Casino 400.

This event one year ago saw Hamlin seize control from William Byron late and battle his way over the final 4 laps to take the victory in the FireKeepers Casino 400. The Joe Gibbs Racing star would only lead 5 laps on the day but some of the most important of the 400-mile race. It would put Toyota back in victory lane at MIS for the second consecutive season. Ford drivers have only won one of the 14 events thus far this season, and they're searching for answers coming to Michigan. Chevrolet saw a four-race win streak snapped by Denny Hamlin at Nashville this past Sunday, so they're on the comeback trail coming into this race. Given Joe Gibbs Racing's 1-2-3 finish at Nashville this past Sunday, drivers like Hamlin, Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell will be squarely in the spotlight this weekend to see if Toyota can continue to add to their success at this two-mile oval. We'll outline the drivers with past history and Michigan and current streaking drivers that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:30 PM ET Wednesday

Denny Hamlin (+400) – Hamlin is coming off his second victory of the season at Nashville and put an exclamation point on his strong month of May. The veteran Toyota driver is a three-time winner at MIS (2010, 2011 and 2025) and rides an incredible eight-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. Hamlin also owns two runner-up finishes at the Irish Hills track since the 2019 season. With over 250-career laps led at MIS and a powerful 57-percent Top-10 rate, its no surprise to see his razor sharp 11.9 average finish spread over his 35 Michigan starts. Hamlin and his surging Joe Gibbs Racing team will be the outfit to beat Sunday in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Kyle Larson (+700) – Larson has been a bit inconsistent of late, but the intermediate and large ovals have been his strength throughout his career. The 2021 Cup Series champion has always liked the two-mile ovals as his three-career Michigan wins illustrate this fact. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has led over 250-career laps at MIS and he cracks the Top-5 here at a strong 47-percent rate. Larson finished fifth-place in this event one year ago and that lowered his career average finish at Michigan International Speedway to an impressive 11.9. If there's any Chevrolet driver that has a shot of upstaging the Toyotas right now, it's Larson and his No. 5 Hendrick team.  

Tyler Reddick (+700) – With five victories already this season and riding a four race Top-10 streak into Michigan this week, we have to respect Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team. He's led over 150 laps in just his last two races alone so they're racing in top form right now. Reddick is a one-time Michigan winner (2024) but he doesn't have the career long success at this oval like some other top contenders. The 23XI Racing star has wins this season at both Daytona and Darlington and they foreshadow Michigan extremely well. Reddick's 13th-place finish in this event one year ago is a bit vanilla, but don't let that discourage you from fantasy racing deployment. He'll battle among the leaders this Sunday afternoon.

Christopher Bell (+600) – Bell has yet to win this season, but he's been painfully close with three runner-up finishes this year. Two of those have come in the last two races alone. His effort at Nashville Superspeedway this past Sunday evening was epic but foiled by a stronger Denny Hamlin. Despite a resume that lacks much oomph at Michigan, we believe Bell and the No. 20 Toyota teams will be ones to watch closely in this race. He's always qualified well here and owns one pole position and one outside pole to his credit. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has struggled a bit with the finishes here (19.0 average finish) but we believe this time he'll be in the running for the win in those final laps of the FireKeepers Casino 400.      

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Ryan Blaney (+1000) – With three Top 10's in his last four races, Blaney is well positioned coming to the Irish Hills this weekend. The Penske Racing star is a one-time winner at the two-mile Michigan oval. In addition to Blaney's win, he now has eight Top-10 finishes at MIS for a steady 47-percent rate. He had a lot of struggles earlier in his career at this track but has reversed them in recent seasons to crack the Top 10 in three of his last five Michigan starts. Ford drivers have enjoyed a lot of success at Michigan International Speedway over the years, and Blaney is probably the best positioned of these to continue their success in Brooklyn, Michigan.

Chase Briscoe (+1200) – Briscoe has been very fast of late and has grabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three races, including his stellar third-place finish at Nashville this past Sunday evening. He will bring that upside into Sunday's big oval battle in the Irish Hills of Michigan. The journeyman driver has never fared well at this track in five prior Cup Series starts. However, this No. 19 Toyota that he's bringing this weekend is likely the best car he will have ever raced at Michigan International Speedway. Briscoe sat on the pole position and led 11 laps in last season's Michigan race, so that experience will help him to his first-career Top 10 at the track this weekend.

Chase Elliott (+1400) – Elliott shook off a brief cold streak with his seventh-place finish at Nashville this past weekend. He'll carry that momentum into Michigan International Speedway this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports star has never won at Michigan but he has registered three runner-up finishes at the Irish Hills speedway. Elliott's 67-percent career Top-10 rate at this track is almost too dazzling to comprehend and his recent victory at Texas Motor Speedway is a good indicator heading into the FireKeepers Casino 400. Elliott's 10.8 career average finish at MIS speaks volumes of his ability at this two-mile oval. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet will be a Top-10 driver in this 400-mile battle.

Ty Gibbs (+1200) – Gibbs has had a really good season to this point. His nine Top-10 finishes thus far register a strong 64-percent Top-10 rate for the campaign thru 14 events. What is really exciting for this driver and team is the amount of success that Gibbs has had in just four prior starts at Michigan International Speedway. The young driver has grabbed two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in those starts for a really strong 6.8 average finish. Gibbs has not led a lot of laps here, just 5 total in those prior starts, but he's been consistent and fast in those previous efforts. We believe Gibbs brings tremendous upside to Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Michigan & Solid Upside

Brad Keselowski (+4000) – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has shown some signs of turning the corner on his tough season. A Top-15 finish recently at Charlotte and good speed this past week at Nashville show this driver and team are heading in the right direction. The veteran driver has always liked these huge ovals. Keselowski has never won at MIS, but he owns three-career runner-up finishes here, and his 16 Top 10's checks in at a strong 57-percent rate. He rides a three-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this weekend's action and sports a strong 12.0 average finish at  the track spread over 28 starts. This is a good track for Keselowski to continue building momentum and digging out of his early season hole. He is not to be underestimated at this two-mile oval.      

Shane van Gisbergen (+2000) – The road racing ace has finally gotten a grip on oval racing it appears. After his win at Watkins Glen a few weeks ago, he's racked up 11th- and fifth-place finishes at both Charlotte and Nashville, both mid-sized ovals. Van Gisbergen carries that momentum this weekend into the Irish Hills. This will be just the second Cup Series start for the Trackhouse Racing driver at the two-mile Michigan track. In his debut one year ago, van Gisbergen raced to a steady 18th-place finish in the FireKeepers Casino 400. The driver of the No. 97 Chevrolet should challenge the Top 10 at MIS and be no worse than a Top-15 finisher in this race.  

Joey Logano (+2500) – Logano's eighth- and 14th-place finishes the past two weeks are a good sign that the No. 22 Ford team have turned the corner on their consistency struggles this season. The Penske Racing star has three-career victories at Michigan International Speedway and rank him among the active leaders at this track. Additionally, his 62-percent Top-10 rate at MIS is very strong and among the best rates in the Cup Series. With close to 600 laps led at Michigan, Logano is used to racing up front here. Given his recent reversal in performance, Logano and the No. 22 Penske Ford team could be a Top-10 threat in the FireKeepers Casino 400. 

Carson Hocevar (+2000) – With his 10th-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway this past weekend, Hocevar now has six Top 10's for the season. That's a steady 43-percent rate for the young driver. He now turns his attention to the huge Michigan oval and will make his third Cup Series start at MIS this weekend. Hocevar netted a strong 10th-place finish in his debut here in 2024 and he's lead a combined 35 laps at Michigan International Speedway. That's a fare amount of time racing up front at this huge oval and his loop stats in the table above bear this out. The 88.1 driver rating is not shabby and Hocevar is only going to get better at Michigan with each passing start.  

Chris Buescher (+1400) – Buescher won this event three years ago in a bit of an upset. He led a whopping 52 laps that day after starting on the second row and turned in a convincing and dominant win. While we don't expect the driver of the No. 17 Ford to revisit victory lane this weekend at MIS, Buescher should have a lot of utility in this FireKeepers Casino 400. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver raced to a runner-up finish in this event last year and now rides a three-race Michigan Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. Buescher has been on the up-and-down roller coaster of late but has qualified well and shown decent speed. There's a good chance he'll challenge the Top 10 Sunday in Brooklyn, Michigan. 

Zane Smith (+10000) – Smith is currently riding a two-race Top-10 streak (Charlotte & Nashville) and is enjoying the best start to a season in his Cup Series career. The Front Row Motorsports driver now has five Top 10's this season and is on pace to post a career high in that statistical category. Smith has two prior Cup Series starts at Michigan International Speedway and with two different race teams. The young driver has nabbed a pair of seventh-place finishes in those starts and been surprisingly successful at this two-mile oval. In the deeper driver tiers of fantasy racing games, Smith is a must-start this Sunday in the FireKeepers Casino 400.     

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Cole Custer (+50000) – The long, tough season continued for Custer at Nashville Superspeedway last week. Despite his best efforts he could only manage a 21st-place finish in the Cracker Barrel 400. Now 14 races into the 2026 season and the No. 41 Ford team has just one Top-15 finish for the campaign to this point. With an average finish of 26.7, Custer would like to be doing better each week. The short tracks have been the toughest struggle, but the intermediate ovals have only been marginally better. Custer has six-career Cup Series starts at Michigan International Speedway and he's yet to crack the Top 20 at this facility. With three DNF's and a 28.8 average finish, it's pretty clear that we should have no fantasy expectations of this team on Sunday afternoon.    

Alex Bowman (+7000) – Bowman is coming off a tough few races at the Glen, Charlotte and Nashville. Hopes for a Michigan rebound would seem slim given his career record at this two-mile oval. Bowman has 16-career starts at the facility in Brooklyn, Michigan and only three Top 10's to show for in those efforts (19-percent). The Hendrick Motorsports veteran's average finish a this oval stands at a disappointing 25.1. In this event one year ago the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet labored to a 36th-place finish in the FireKeepers Casino 400. That was his third DNF in his last six Michigan starts. Keep Bowman benched in all fantasy formats for this event.  

Austin Cindric (+6500) – The wildly inconsistent season continued for Cindric at Nashville last Sunday. He'd labor the No. 2 Ford to a disappointing 26th-place finish, 4 laps down at Nashville Superspeedway. Cindric's chances to climb out of his current Top-10 drought are slim at Michigan this Sunday. He has four-career starts at the big oval in the Irish Hills and not much success in those efforts. Cindric has just one Top-15 finish in those starts and an average finish of 27.0 across the span. In this event one year ago, this driver and team came home a disappointing 31st-place in the FireKeepers Casino 400. Cindric is a driver to keep on the bench for Michigan.

Michael McDowell (+13000) – Of the full-time drivers in NASCAR's top division, McDowell is probably the shakiest performer at Michigan. His 19-career starts have netted just two Top-20 finishes and an average finish of 29.5 which is pretty woeful. McDowell doesn't qualify well at MIS, which his 27.0 average start figure attests. He's failed to finish on the lead lap in three of his last five Michigan starts. McDowell brought home a 30th-place finish in this event one year ago, and that's sadly right in line with his career average at Michigan International Speedway. The Spire Motorsports veteran is a risky play in the FireKeepers Casino 400.