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Note: Time on Ice projections and picks can change frequently throughout the day due to injuries and changes to line combinations, especially power-play lines. I encourage readers to check the comments section below for any last-minute updates prior to puck drop.
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Card Overview: Similar to last night, be very careful tonight as most of these teams are playing their first game out of the break. The bad news is, this card doesn't look great, mostly because we don't have any rhythm right now, but the good news is, some of these lines seem to be out of whack, and I'll get into that within the picks.
BUILDING BLOCKS
Moritz Seider 26.75 at Ottawa Senators - 7:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
I'll start by stating that Seider is certainly capable of going over this number in a trail script or a game with a lot of penalties, but typically, when Simon Edvinsson has been healthy, like he is once again, Seider's line is generally in the 24-25 range, so we are getting about 1-2 extra minutes here. Again, confirm that Edvinsson is back before making this play, but from everything I've seen, he's ready to go.
Colton Parayko 22 vs. Seattle Kraken - 8:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
This one has a couple of paths to victory, one of which would make it almost a can't-miss play, and the other just makes it a decent play. The can't-miss path is if the Blues go with seven defensemen tonight, as they did in their most recent game, before the break. What makes me think they'll go that route again is that the Blues are missing a lot of bodies up front. Robert Thomas is out, and Dylan Holloway, Brayden Schenn, and Oskar Sundqvist are all questionable as of Thursday morning. Meanwhile, all the defensemen are healthy. The other path to victory is that Parayko hasn't played a ton this season, and he's a 32-year-old returning from the Olympics, so they might take it easy on him.
SCRIPT/LINE DEPENDENT
Zach Werenski 24.5 at Boston Bruins - 7:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
For anyone who's played TOI over the past three years, this line looks insane. That's not to say that Werenski can't go under, heck he's played less than this number in four of his past five games, but Werenski's line is usually around 26. The reason he's played less than 24.5 minutes in 4/5 is that Columbus was on a roll prior to the break. The Blue Jackets won each of their past five games by at least two goals and their two most recent by three and four goals, respectively. If this game is tight, and Columbus is a slight dog, so it should be, then Werenski should hit this number.
Travis Sanheim 23 at New York Rangers - 8:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
Sanheim was a late add to my personal card last night as he switched linemates from Cam York to Rasmus Ristolainen. It's not a huge change, but York plays more than Ristolainen, and any change, even slight, makes a difference. Sanheim played under 22 minutes last night in a trail script, so I'm expecting something similar tonight. Sanheim has been around a 24-minute per game player over the past couple of years, but he's been moved off the power play, which has really cut into his minutes. As long as he stays with Ristolainen, he should stay under 23 minutes.
Roman Josi 26.75 vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 8:00 p.m. ET (LESS)
This line is a little out of whack, as well as Josi's typical line, which is in the 24-25 range. His minutes skyrocketed when Nicolas Hague went down, but Hague is fully back now. I should note that Hague has been back for the past two games, but the Preds were trailing in both of those games, which is why Josi went over his number. Nashville is a heavy favorite tonight, so I'm hoping they get out to a lead. If they do, then Josi stays well under this number. Josi is also returning from the Olympics, which could play a factor in his minutes. I mentioned yesterday that you can't count on playing fewer minutes just because a player was in the Olympics, but it's another path to victory if the script doesn't play out as planned.
Quinn Hughes 28 at Colorado Avalanche - 9:00 p.m. ET (MORE)
Since I just mentioned it, I'll throw it out here as well. There is a chance that Hughes plays less because of his long run in the Olympics, but I don't see that happening because this is such a huge game for the Wild. In case you aren't aware of the terrible playoff format in the NHL, whichever teams finish 2nd and 3rd in the Central division have to play each other in the 1st round. That means that the Wild would have to beat Dallas, then Colorado, just to make it to the conference finals. If they finish first, however, they'll get a much easier opponent in the first round. With that in mind, the Wild are going to go all out to win this game and close the gap on Colorado, which means more ice time for Hughes. A trail script is also likely here, or at worst and tight game, so there are a couple of paths to victory here.
