Hutch's Hockey: Growing Pains

When you're a first-year NHL player, be it a No. 1 overall pick or a prospect that's had some time to percolate at lower levels, there's often an adjustment period. Expectations for top prospects are predictably high, and it can take time for those young players to live up to the hype. 

The three best rookies heading into 2024-25 have all had their share of growing pains so far this season. For Macklin Celebrini, the No. 1 pick this past June, it's been a literal pain -- he missed three weeks with a lower-body injury. He still has four points over four games, and he looks every bit the part of a first-overall-level talent. Even if he continues to have success, there will be some attrition with playing on a rebuilding team.

Then, there's Matvei Michkov. Top prospects can't control who their coach is, and Michkov has a rough draw in the old-school John Tortorella. It's a tale familiar to many NHL watchers -- Tortorella wants to send a message to a young player, and he does it with benchings and scratches. Michkov has had both so far despite putting up 10 points in 13 contests, including seven power-play points. The Flyers haven't had much go right for them, but they've been better defensively since Michkov exited the lineup, so who knows how long he'll be stuck watching from the press box. 

Lastly, there's Logan Stankoven. Unlike Celebrini and Michkov, Stankoven has stepped right onto a competitive roster. He's older too -- 21 years old -- so he has some professional experience in the AHL under his belt. The stronger supporting cast is a blessing and a curse. Stankoven leads all rookies with 12 points in 13 contests, but he's also seeing just 15:49 of ice time per game while bouncing around the lineup. It hasn't hurt yet, but that fluid role could cause problems down the line. 

I'm not a coach, and I don't have any plans to be either. That said, when you have a young and talented player, there's something to be said for letting them make a few mistakes and then work it out on the ice. Situations will vary -- in a completely neutral world, Stankoven would have a shorter leash than Michkov just based on the differences in competitiveness between the Stars and the Flyers. In the case of all three of these rookies, the growing pains are worth it in fantasy, as long as your roster is strong enough in other places to handle the volatility that comes with having rookies on board.

For waiver-wire purposes, it's not too late to get on board with Gabriel Vilardi. The Jets continue to impress with a historic 14-1-0 start to the season, and Vilardi has been a large part of that in a top-line role. He enters this week on a seven-game point streak (five goals, four assists). Overall, he has 13 points through 15 contests, including five power-play points. His production is limited to scoring and shots, but he's doing enough of both to be a factor in virtually all formats. 

Darnell Nurse can be a polarizing on-ice player, but there's no questioning his value in fantasy. His four assists over the last six games represent an uptick on offense, and he's added a 21 shots on net, 15 hits and 13 blocked shots in that same span. He's worth a look now because the Oilers appear to be turning a corner, meaning there should be more offense all throughout the lineup. Nurse can consistently be a 30-point blueliner while helping in every other category aside from power-play points. 

There's no reason to be ignoring Matthew Knies at this point. The winger has 10 points over 16 contests, and that includes three power-play points over his last three games. Knies looks locked in on the Maple Leafs' top line. He's only getting better at this point, quelling the preseason concerns that Toronto was shallow at left wing. Knies' value could shoot up once Auston Matthews is back from an upper-body injury, so this could be the last chance to scoop up the winger for free.

There are plenty of flaws with Thomas Chabot in 2024-25 -- he's an injury-prone defenseman who's no longer the top dog on the Senators' blue line. That hasn't stopped him from being productive in a second-pairing role. Chabot has five assists over his last seven contests, giving him eight points through 14 outings this season. He's still seeing big minutes and racking up shots on net and blocked shots. He won't be a power-play force as long as Jake Sanderson is healthy, but fantasy managers should have plenty of patience for a blueliner playing above a 40-point pace. 

The Hurricanes' blue line is a bit confusing to figure out, but Dmitry Orlov has stood out in recent weeks. He has five points and a plus-11 rating over his last five contests. Orlov doesn't get power-play time, so the offense is likely to fade, but he's been a big part of the team's defensive success. He will help most in hits and plus-minus rating, but he could also push for the 30-point mark and roughly 100 blocked shots to provide steady category coverage. 

Trevor Moore may have slipped off the radar after a slow start to the campaign, but he is all the way back. He scored a shorthanded goal in Saturday's win over the Blue Jackets, extending his point streak to five games in the process. The Kings are finding success against the odds this season, with three good scoring lines and strong defense even in the absence of Drew Doughty (ankle). Moore's role is to be a speedy two-way winger with good defensive skills. He's produced nine points and 40 shots on net in 16 contests, and that's with him shooting a mere 5.0 percent so far. 

Jean-Gabriel Pageau is worth a look even with plenty of valid concerns about the Islanders' offense. Pageau is seeing time on the top line, and he should have eligibility at right wing in the near future because of it. He's scored three times and averaged 19:42 of ice time over the last five contests since he replaced Mathew Barzal (upper body) alongside Bo Horvat. Pageau's defensive talents will keep his usage steady, but the uptick in offense makes him a fantasy option in all formats. 

On the more speculative side, Pius Suter is gaining traction in a top-six role with power-play time for the Canucks. Brock Boeser (upper body) is out indefinitely after a vicious hit from Tanner Jeannot on Thursday, and Suter is picking up the slack. Suter has three goals over four games in November and is up to six points through 12 contests overall. He's an option primarily for points and shots, so his fantasy value is higher in formats that focus on scoring. That said, Suter could face a challenge for playing time from top prospect Jonathan Lekkerimaki.

As usual with goalies, playing time matters as much as results. Samuel Ersson doesn't have great results with a 4-2-2 record, a 2.68 GAA and a .902 save percentage, but he has the benefit of being the Flyers' best option in net. He would have been in this column a week ago if not for a lower-body injury that cost him two games. The Flyers are a risky team to roster goalies from if you're looking for wins, but Ersson won't do too much damage to your ratios. 

As much as fantasy managers might want Dustin Wolf to run with the Flames' No. 1 job, Dan Vladar is not going anywhere. Vladar is 3-3-2 with a 2.60 GAA and a .906 save percentage over eight games so far. The Flames strictly alternated starts for much of October, but the workload balance has turned into a win-and-stay-in situation in November. The Flames are too inconsistent for either goalie to get a long stretch of playing time, but Vladar has been pretty steady coming off of hip surgery at the end of last season. 

Any long-time readers of this column know I'm all for patience in fantasy management. I think a lot of NHL coaches would benefit from that as well. Sure, they want to make sure rookies are developing good habits, but the best way to learn those habits is to play in situations that challenge the players to make the right choices. That's where I think Pete DeBoer is doing it right by Stankoven -- moving around the lineup can mess with chemistry, but it also forces a player to adapt to changing linemates. There's value in Tortorella's approach with Michkov too, but it comes with the risk of damaging the player-coach relationship, though Michkov has plenty to learn this early in the campaign. Ryan Warsofsky also has a good plan with Celebrini by throwing him right in the fire with first-line minutes, but he's showed the ability to adapt by taking a different approach with Will Smith, who has had his workload managed and plays in a smaller role when in the lineup. 

In essence, everyone will think they are doing things the best way they can, and those watching should take the bits and pieces from various strategies to apply them in their own way. In fantasy, that means seeking out different ways to build rosters or deal with roster churn. As always, my advice is general, but you know what works and what doesn't in your format, so you can season to taste as necessary. I'll be back next week with more.