Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Broncos vs. Browns

The Browns are dealing with significant injuries as Nick Chubb (calf), Kareem Hunt (calf) and Baker Mayfield (shoulder) are out while Odell Beckham (shoulder) is questionable. Nevertheless, they're two-point home favorites against the Broncos in a game that features a rather low 41-point total. The Browns are coming off back-to-back losses after they were handily beaten 37-14 by the Cardinals on Sunday. The Broncos extended their losing streak to three after a disappointing 10-point loss to the Raiders at home. Both teams will be desperate for a win to get back over .500. Key injuries and two stellar defenses lead me to believe that points will be hard to come by. I'm more likely to roster kickers and defenses in these situations, especially with both priced softly on this slate. As always in these single-game contests, plan for a specific scenario and builds lineups to fit that game script. 

QUARTERBACKS

Case Keenum ($9,400 DK, $5,000 FD) will make his first start since 2019 in place of the injured Baker Mayfield (shoulder). He will have his work cut out for him against a solid Broncos defense that has the second-highest blitz rate in the league. They're better against the run than the pass and with the Browns featuring two backup RBs, Keenum likely will have to put up some passing yards if they're going to be successful. He will be extremely popular on FanDuel where he's priced the minimum. On DraftKings he will be popular too as he's $2,000 less than Mayfield would have been. If I'm playing for the Browns to win then Keenum would definitely be in my lineup. I'll be making some lineups without him, considering his popularity and the likelihood of the Broncos shutting him down. If he busts, fading would bring considerable leverage. 

Teddy Bridgewater ($11,000 DK, $14,500 FD) is questionable after being limited in practice this week due to foot and quadriceps injuries. He's a game-time decision, but coach Vic Fangio has is optimistic he'll play. He's coming off a season-high 334 yards and three touchdowns in last week's loss to the Raiders. He also had three costly interceptions, which is uncharacteristic as he'd only thrown one in the first five games of the season. Expect him to be popular, considering he's relatively easy to afford based on the soft pricing at other positions. He makes plenty of sense in the captain spot too as he has a good chance to be the game's highest scorer. I plan on having him in most, if not all of my lineups. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Odell Beckham ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD) is dealing with Grade 3 AC joint sprain of his shoulder but remains hopeful of playing Thursday. He's drawn at least seven targets in three of four games but has yet to top 80 yards receiving or score a touchdown this season. His salary is relatively cheap, but all of the Brown's WRs should be downgraded slightly with the news that Case Keenum will start over Baker Mayfield. Donovan Peoples-Jones ($6,400 DK, $8,500 FD) is coming off the best game of his career after catching four passes for 101 yards and two TDs last week. His second TD came on 57-yard Hail Mary to end the first half. He's too expensive for my liking if Beckham plays. Consequently, if Beckham sits, he's probably a bit too cheap. Rashard Higgins ($3,600 DK, $7,500 FD) played 63 percent of the snaps last week, an increase from previous weeks. He failed to catch any of his three targets but prior to that he'd caught multiple balls in four consecutive games. Anthony Schwartz ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD) saw 26 snaps last week, the most he'd played since Week 1 and he caught two of three targets as a result. Both Higgins and Schwartz are viable because of the cheap salaries, but they'd get big boosts if Beckham sits. If that's the case, I'd have significant exposure to both. 

Courtland Sutton ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD) drew a whopping 14 targets last week as he caught eight passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. He's now seen at least 11 targets in three of six weeks and has clearly established himself as the Broncos top playmaker on offense. He's a good option for the captain spot based on the high likelihood that he ends up the game's top scorer. Tim Patrick ($7,600 DK, $11,000 FD) had three catches for 42 yards and a TD last week. He saw at least six targets for the third consecutive game. He makes for decent pivot off Sutton, but the two can also be rostered together with Bridgewater. Kendall Hinton ($2,000 DK, $5,500 FD) has been the Broncos' No. 3 WR in the absence of Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. He caught five of five targets last week for 37 yards and is a viable option for Thursday based on his cheap salary. If Beckham is active, I'd rather take a chance on Hinton opposed to Higgins or Schwartz on the other side.

Noah Fant ($8,200 DK, $9,500 FD) had his best game of the season last Sunday as he caught nine of 11 targets for 97 yards and a TD. It was the second time in three games that he saw double-digit targets. Considering all the injuries, he looks like one of the top plays on the slate for Thursday and makes sense in the captain spot as well. David Njoku ($5,400 DK, $7,000 FD) had a huge game in Week 5 but that was the only time in the last five games that he's topped 20 receiving yards. Him and Austin Hooper ($3,800 DK, $6,500 FD) might be more involved Thursday considering the injuries to Chubb, Hunt and Beckham. Hooper has drawn at least three targets in five of six games, and I'd prefer rostering him over Njoku based on the $1,600 salary difference. 

RUNNING BACKS

D'Ernest Johnson ($4,600 DK, $10,000 FD) will make his first career start with the news that Nick Chubb (calf) and Kareem Hunt (calf) are out. Undrafted out of South Florida in 2018, Johnson has just three touches this season. In two prior seasons with the Browns, he's averaged more than five yards per carry on 37 attempts. Demetric Felton ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) will operate as the third down back who should see a few carries and catch passes out of the backfield. A big threat in the passing game, he was one of the most exciting running backs in college football last year before being drafted in the sixth round out of UCLA. The Broncos have one of the better run defenses in the league, but both RBs are favorably priced and it won't take much for either to be optimal. I'll have exposure to both and rostering them in the same lineup is viable as well considering the cheap salaries. 

Melvin Gordon ($7,400 DK, $10,500 FD) played 53 percent of the snaps last week as he carried 10 times for 50 yards and caught three passes for 23 yards. He's touched the ball at least 11 times in all six games this season and has caught at least two passes in five. Gordon continues to split playing time with Javonte Williams ($7,000 DK, $9,000 FD). Williams has busted off a 30-plus yard run in three consecutive games and has caught three passes in four straight. He ranks among the league leaders in broken tackles and offers big-play ability both running and receiving. The Browns have a good run defense, so it's hard to imagine both RBs going for big games. Both are likely touchdown-dependent but that's probably enough if it's a low-scoring game. I'll have exposure to both but not in the same lineup.

KICKERS

I always like to roster kickers in games with a low total because they're cheap and it usually doesn't take as many fantasy points for them to end up in the optimal lineup. Brandon McManus ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) and Chase McLaughlin ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) are likely to be less popular than they normally would be in this spot because the Browns RBs are priced so closely to them. Often times kickers stand out when there are a lack of appealing options in their salary range but that isn't the case for Thursday considering the defenses priced below them are viable as well. As things stand, I plan to be above the field on both. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Normally I like to fade the defenses in these showdowns because they rarely score enough points to be optimal and they're usually too expensive and more popular than they should be. This matchup might be an exception considering we have two stellar defenses and two banged-up offenses that might struggle to score. Both the Broncos ($3,400 DK) and Browns ($3,200) are cheaper than we usually see defenses in games with a low total. I'll have exposure to each, but I prefer the Broncos considering the absence of Chubb, Hunt and Mayfield.