This article is part of our Survivor series.
Another week, another upset. Upsets, plural, actually.
Last week's two most popular picks, the 49ers and Seahawks, both choked on their home fields, killing many would-be Survivors.
That's been the trend the first five weeks of the season. The biggest Vegas favorites are 1-4 this year, as are the most popular Survivor picks.
In my pool, seven were eliminated last week (five on the 49ers, one on the Seahawks). Of the original 442, 10 remain.
On to Week 6.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAGLES | Browns | 38.3% | 400 | 80.0% | 7.66 |
| Texans | PATRIOTS | 20.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 5.51 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 17.6% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 5.06 |
| PACKERS | Cardinals | 6.5% | 220 | 68.8% | 2.03 |
| RAVENS | Commanders | 4.0% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.08 |
| Bengals | GIANTS | 2.5% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.93 |
| Steelers | RAIDERS | 2.0% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.82 |
| BEARS | Jaguars^ | 1.9% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.82 |
| Buccaneers | SAINTS | 1.6% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.57 |
| 49ers | SEAHAWKS | 1.3% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.48 |
| Bills | JETS | 0.8% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.34 |
| Lions | COWBOYS | 0.7% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.27 |
| Chargers | BRONCOS | 0.5% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.20 |
| Colts | TITANS | 0.5% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.24 |
Home teams in CAPS
^ at London
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There is no pot-odds play this week. The difference in popularity between the Eagles and Texans
Another week, another upset. Upsets, plural, actually.
Last week's two most popular picks, the 49ers and Seahawks, both choked on their home fields, killing many would-be Survivors.
That's been the trend the first five weeks of the season. The biggest Vegas favorites are 1-4 this year, as are the most popular Survivor picks.
In my pool, seven were eliminated last week (five on the 49ers, one on the Seahawks). Of the original 442, 10 remain.
On to Week 6.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAGLES | Browns | 38.3% | 400 | 80.0% | 7.66 |
| Texans | PATRIOTS | 20.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 5.51 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 17.6% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 5.06 |
| PACKERS | Cardinals | 6.5% | 220 | 68.8% | 2.03 |
| RAVENS | Commanders | 4.0% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.08 |
| Bengals | GIANTS | 2.5% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.93 |
| Steelers | RAIDERS | 2.0% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.82 |
| BEARS | Jaguars^ | 1.9% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.82 |
| Buccaneers | SAINTS | 1.6% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.57 |
| 49ers | SEAHAWKS | 1.3% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.48 |
| Bills | JETS | 0.8% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.34 |
| Lions | COWBOYS | 0.7% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.27 |
| Chargers | BRONCOS | 0.5% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.20 |
| Colts | TITANS | 0.5% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.24 |
Home teams in CAPS
^ at London
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There is no pot-odds play this week. The difference in popularity between the Eagles and Texans is not great enough to outweigh the Eagles' 80 percent odds of winning.
So, pick who you want.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are coming off a bye at home against a bad Browns team that has not scored more than 18 points in any game this year. The extended rest also gives the Eagles a chance to get A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson healthy. Nick Chubb might return for Cleveland, but if Philly blows this as the week's biggest favorite, then maybe favorites really are jinxed this season.
Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers are just that bad. But not only that, the Falcons are pretty good and had a long week to prepare, having played last Thursday.
Houston Texans
Nico Collins likely is out for the Texans, and while Houston still has Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, those guys aren't Nico. The Patriots, however, are expected to start rookie Drake Maye. That's a tough ask against a Texans defense that leads the NFL in QB pressure percentage and allows the league's lowest completion percentage and third-fewest passing yards.
Green Bay Packers
The Cardinals played well last week in their upset of the 49ers, but the Niners self-sabotaged a number of times, including an injury to their kicker that altered the late-game strategy significantly. The Cardinals, naturally, seemed to deal with the triple-digit heat better than the 49ers, but this week, Arizona faces colder temperatures, high wind and showers. The Packers are better and the weather favors them too.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers and Raiders both have QB controversies brewing, but the Raiders are in the far worse spot. Whether it's Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell, the Steelers defense should chew up either.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Chicago Bears
It's not that there's necessarily an upset in the works, but the game is in London, which the Jaguars should handle better than the Bears. That's at least enough to make me avoid the Bears in Survivor.
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