This article is part of our Survivor series.
Drew Lock and the Giants killed a lot of Survivors' dreams last week. The Colts were the Survivor favorite, garnering 37 percent of the vote, according to Office Football Pools, but couldn't stop Lock. The next favorite, the Rams, came oh-so-close to losing too. The rest of the games went pretty much as expected.
In my pool, two entrants lost on the Colts. Of the original 442, three remain.
It was a difficult year for Survivor. Many of us got bounced Week 1 (thanks again, Bengals) and early upsets whittled down pools quicker than ever. Not sure if those of you still reading just do it for fun (you masochists) or if you're still Surviving. Hopefully, it's the latter, but either way, thanks for coming along for the ride.
On to Week 18.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Panthers | 23.0% | 355 | 78.0% | 5.05 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 15.6% | 750 | 88.2% | 1.84 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 12.3% | 475 | 82.6% | 2.14 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 11.2% | 1500 | 93.8% | 0.70 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 11.1% | 355 | 78.0% | 2.44 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 7.7% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.52 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 4.4% | 250 | 71.4% | 1.26 |
| Seahawks | RAMS | 2.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.80 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 2.0% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.71 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 1.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.60 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 1.2% |
Drew Lock and the Giants killed a lot of Survivors' dreams last week. The Colts were the Survivor favorite, garnering 37 percent of the vote, according to Office Football Pools, but couldn't stop Lock. The next favorite, the Rams, came oh-so-close to losing too. The rest of the games went pretty much as expected.
In my pool, two entrants lost on the Colts. Of the original 442, three remain.
It was a difficult year for Survivor. Many of us got bounced Week 1 (thanks again, Bengals) and early upsets whittled down pools quicker than ever. Not sure if those of you still reading just do it for fun (you masochists) or if you're still Surviving. Hopefully, it's the latter, but either way, thanks for coming along for the ride.
On to Week 18.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing. Home teams in CAPS.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Panthers | 23.0% | 355 | 78.0% | 5.05 |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 15.6% | 750 | 88.2% | 1.84 |
| BRONCOS | Chiefs | 12.3% | 475 | 82.6% | 2.14 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 11.2% | 1500 | 93.8% | 0.70 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 11.1% | 355 | 78.0% | 2.44 |
| COLTS | Jaguars | 7.7% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.52 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 4.4% | 250 | 71.4% | 1.26 |
| Seahawks | RAMS | 2.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.80 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 2.0% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.71 |
| Dolphins | JETS | 1.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.60 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 1.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.46 |
| TITANS | Texans | 1.0% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.48 |
| Bills | PATRIOTS | 0.9% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.37 |
| Commanders | COWBOYS | 0.8% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.26 |
| Bengals | STEELERS | 0.7% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.33 |
| LIONS | Vikings | 0.3% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.12 |
This is it. Week 18. Shoot your best shot and hope for the best. Estimate your opponents' picks and use that to help you pick your team.
The Chiefs, Bills, Texans and Eagles have nothing to play for this week, as each is locked into its playoffs seed. The Eagles could keep things interesting if they're intent on getting Saquon Barkley the single-season rushing record. But that's nothing to count on.
Got a tough decision? Hit up the comments.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are the biggest favorite on the board, an incredible -17.5 vs. the Browns. Cleveland showed last week it's just playing out the schedule and the Ravens need a win to take the AFC North. Alas, most Survivors used the Ravens long ago. If you're one of the fortunate 11 percent (according to the above figures), congrats.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A win gives the Bucs the NFC South. Derek Carr could return this week for New Orleans. But what purpose would that serve? Even if he plays, a rusty Carr won't get far on the road against a Tampa Bay squad with the playoffs on the line.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have clinched a playoff berth, but a win this week against the Bears would allow them to avoid the Eagles in the first round. That's plenty of incentive against a Bears team that can't get the season over fast enough.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons need a win and a Buccaneers loss to win the NFC South. They play at the same time Sunday, so there's no chance of the Falcons letting up against the Panthers. Michael Penix showed enough in Week 17 to take a chance on him this week.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders need a win and a Packers loss to avoid the Eagles in the first round. The Cowboys beat the Commanders in Week 12, so this game sets up as a little payback for Washington in addition to the playoff incentive. The Cowboys also had CeeDee Lamb in that first matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers need a win and a Steelers loss for the AFC's No. 5 seed to avoid the Ravens in the first round. The Steelers play Saturday. If they win, the Chargers likely would rest starters Sunday. So, if the Chargers are playing for something, sure, consider using them against a miserable Raiders team. If not, stay away.
Seattle Seahawks
The Rams need a win and a Buccaneers loss to lock up the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The Bucs play early, though, so if they win, the Rams likely will rest starters in the afternoon. The Seahawks are no push over anyway, and any let up by the Rams likely would be enough for Seattle to pull it out. Plus, Geno Smith has $2 million in incentives at stake. Vegas apparently thinks the Rams will mail it in (with or without the Bucs winning) because Seattle is nearly a touchdown favorite.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have nothing to play for, but they're at home against the Jaguars. Indy is probably still smarting from last week's loss to the Giants, while the Jags, who won last week, probably can't win two in a row. Let's hope your final Survivor pick doesn't come down to this.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Denver Broncos
The Broncos face a win-and-in playoff scenario while the Chiefs are locked into the AFC's No. 1 seed and likely will play a lot of backups. Nevertheless, I just don't trust the Broncos to pull through. Lady Luck has smiled on the Chiefs all season, K.C. backup QB Carson Wentz isn't awful and the Chiefs aren't going to lay down so a division foe can make the playoffs. Six of the Broncos' nine wins this season came against the Jets, Browns, Raiders, Panthers and Saints. Excluding Week 18, they will finish the year with one win against playoff teams (Tampa Bay or Atlanta).
