This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week the Cowboys and Eagles took down nearly 50 percent of pools. It's getting to the end in most, and even in my $6M Circa Survivor Pool there are only 28 teams left. (We took the Bears on Thanksgiving Day and the Falcons during the weekend games.)
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Jaguars | 23.0% | 600 | 85.71 | 3.29 |
| Vikings | LIONS | 18.0% | 275 | 73.33 | 4.80 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 15.3% | 427.5 | 81.04 | 2.90 |
| Eagles | JETS | 13.2% | 255 | 71.83 | 3.72 |
| Buccaneers | FALCONS | 9.2% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 1.57 |
| Cardinals | BEARS | 6.6% | 320 | 76.19 | 1.57 |
| Colts | TEXANS | 5.5% | 350 | 77.78 | 1.22 |
| DOLPHINS | Giants | 3.9% | 195 | 66.10 | 1.32 |
| RAIDERS | Team | 2.0% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.87 |
| Cowboys | SAINTS | 0.6% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.21 |
| BENGALS | Chargers | 0.6% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.24 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.6% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.21 |
| 49ers | SEAHAWKS | 0.5% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.19 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
A reminder that the percentage-taken numbers are noisy this time of year, so you'll want to look at the surviving entries in your pool and figure out an approximate distribution of ownership for yourself.
My Picks
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs play their second straight road game, but the Falcons are soft defensively, and they don't have the weapons to challenge the Bucs' secondary. I give the Buccaneers a 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should roll at home, but Matthew Stafford is banged up, and the Jaguars have been
Last week the Cowboys and Eagles took down nearly 50 percent of pools. It's getting to the end in most, and even in my $6M Circa Survivor Pool there are only 28 teams left. (We took the Bears on Thanksgiving Day and the Falcons during the weekend games.)
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Jaguars | 23.0% | 600 | 85.71 | 3.29 |
| Vikings | LIONS | 18.0% | 275 | 73.33 | 4.80 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 15.3% | 427.5 | 81.04 | 2.90 |
| Eagles | JETS | 13.2% | 255 | 71.83 | 3.72 |
| Buccaneers | FALCONS | 9.2% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 1.57 |
| Cardinals | BEARS | 6.6% | 320 | 76.19 | 1.57 |
| Colts | TEXANS | 5.5% | 350 | 77.78 | 1.22 |
| DOLPHINS | Giants | 3.9% | 195 | 66.10 | 1.32 |
| RAIDERS | Team | 2.0% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.87 |
| Cowboys | SAINTS | 0.6% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.21 |
| BENGALS | Chargers | 0.6% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.24 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.6% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 0.21 |
| 49ers | SEAHAWKS | 0.5% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.19 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
A reminder that the percentage-taken numbers are noisy this time of year, so you'll want to look at the surviving entries in your pool and figure out an approximate distribution of ownership for yourself.
My Picks
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs play their second straight road game, but the Falcons are soft defensively, and they don't have the weapons to challenge the Bucs' secondary. I give the Buccaneers a 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should roll at home, but Matthew Stafford is banged up, and the Jaguars have been solid against the run. I give the Rams an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are on the road, but they should run roughshod over the Texans with Jonathan Taylor, and their defense should hold up. I give the Colts an 82 percent chance to win this game.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles just played a bad game against the Giants, but they get an even easier opponent this week, especially if the Jets start Zach Wilson. Jalen Hurts is questionable, but even if he can't go, Gardner Minshew is competent enough. I give the Eagles a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have turned a corner defensively, but the offense still hasn't entirely gotten in gear. The Broncos can slug it out with them in that type of game too. I give the Chiefs a 74 percent chance to win this game.
6. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings barely beat the Lions in Minnesota, and now they're missing Dalvin Cook and coming off a physical game against the 49ers. I give them a 73 percent chance to win this game.
7. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are coming off the bye, but it's still unclear whether they'll have Kyler Murray back. Moreover, they're playing in Chicago in what could be a weather game. I give the Cardinals a 72 percent chance to win this game.
8. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins catch a break with the Daniel Jones injury, but they've been the better team of late anyway. I give the Dolphins a 72 percent chance to win this game.
9. Baltimore Ravens
Normally, I'd avoid a rivalry game like this, but T.J. Watt is on the Covid list, and the Steelers offense has been terrible. I give the Ravens a 70 percent chance to win this game.
10. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have played poorly of late, and the Saints could have Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara back, but New Orleans has fallen apart too, and the Cowboys are better offensively. I give the Cowboys a 66 percent chance to win this game.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have looked great of late, but the Chargers, when they show up, can hang with anyone. I give the Bengals a 64 percent chance to win this game.
12. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners look great, while the Seahawks have been terrible, but if Russell Wilson ever wakes up, look out. I give the 49ers a 60 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Las Vegas Raiders -- I picked them to win, but this is a coin flip against a Team team that's won three straight games.
