This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week had one big casualty, the Titans, who along with the Panthers, took down roughly 50 percent of pools.
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Raiders | 33.8% | 330 | 76.74 | 7.86 |
| PATRIOTS | Titans | 14.4% | 250 | 71.43 | 4.11 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 12.3% | 170 | 62.96 | 4.56 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 8.5% | 175 | 63.64 | 3.09 |
| Bears | LIONS | 6.6% | 150 | 60.00 | 2.64 |
| Bills | SAINTS | 4.8% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.41 |
| BENGALS | Steelers | 4.4% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 1.53 |
| TEXANS | Jets | 4.3% | 135 | 57.45 | 1.83 |
| Chargers | BRONCOS | 3.4% | 135 | 57.45 | 1.45 |
| 49ERS | Vikings | 2.0% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.77 |
| Falcons | JAGUARS | 1.1% | 100 | 50.00 | 0.55 |
| Panthers | DOLPHINS | 1.1% | 120 | 54.55 | 0.50 |
| Seahawks | TEAM | 0.8% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.38 |
| Buccaneers | COLTS | 0.7% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.29 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is one of the crazier weeks in recent memory, in that no one is above 80 percent implied odds, and only three teams, all of which have been heavily used, are above 70.
My Picks
1.New England Patriots
The Titans have knocked off the Colts twice, the Rams, the Bills and the Chiefs, but without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and possibly A.J. Brown this team is a shell of its former self, and it travels to New England to face arguably the best defense in the league. I give the Patriots a 77 percent chance to win this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Tyron Smith returned to practice Wednesday, and that bodes
Last week had one big casualty, the Titans, who along with the Panthers, took down roughly 50 percent of pools.
Let's take a look at Week 12:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Raiders | 33.8% | 330 | 76.74 | 7.86 |
| PATRIOTS | Titans | 14.4% | 250 | 71.43 | 4.11 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 12.3% | 170 | 62.96 | 4.56 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 8.5% | 175 | 63.64 | 3.09 |
| Bears | LIONS | 6.6% | 150 | 60.00 | 2.64 |
| Bills | SAINTS | 4.8% | 240 | 70.59 | 1.41 |
| BENGALS | Steelers | 4.4% | 187.5 | 65.22 | 1.53 |
| TEXANS | Jets | 4.3% | 135 | 57.45 | 1.83 |
| Chargers | BRONCOS | 3.4% | 135 | 57.45 | 1.45 |
| 49ERS | Vikings | 2.0% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.77 |
| Falcons | JAGUARS | 1.1% | 100 | 50.00 | 0.55 |
| Panthers | DOLPHINS | 1.1% | 120 | 54.55 | 0.50 |
| Seahawks | TEAM | 0.8% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.38 |
| Buccaneers | COLTS | 0.7% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.29 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is one of the crazier weeks in recent memory, in that no one is above 80 percent implied odds, and only three teams, all of which have been heavily used, are above 70.
My Picks
1.New England Patriots
The Titans have knocked off the Colts twice, the Rams, the Bills and the Chiefs, but without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and possibly A.J. Brown this team is a shell of its former self, and it travels to New England to face arguably the best defense in the league. I give the Patriots a 77 percent chance to win this game.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Tyron Smith returned to practice Wednesday, and that bodes well for the Cowboys who struggled offensively in his absence. The Raiders are reeling, but they're relatively healthy at least. I give the Cowboys a 77 percent chance to win this game.
3. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have cratered over the last month, but so have the Saints, and New Orleans might be missing both its starting tackles and running backs. Moreover Trevor Siemian has not been good replacing Jameis Winston. I give the Bills a 72 percent chance to win this game.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have been poor defensively, but Lamar Jackson returned to practice, and they draw a Browns team with no passing game of which to speak. I give the Ravens a 63 percent chance to win this game.
5. Chicago Bears
They're on the road, and Andy Dalton is taking over at quarterback, but their defense is better than that of the Lions, and Tim Boyle and a banged-up Jared Goff will have a hard time threatening the secondary. I give the Bears a 61 percent chance to win this game.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers should have T.J. Watt back, but their offense is still poor, and the Bengals are the better rounded team. Still, a matchup between these rivals is always dicey. I give the Bengals a 60 percent chance to win this game.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have played well of late, while the Giants looked terrible Monday night. But the Giants usually show up to play, and this game is in New York. I give the Eagles a 60 percent chance to win this game.
8. Houston Texans
The Texans aren't great, but they're an NFL team at least with Tyrod Taylor, and the Jets might not be one with rookie Zach Wilson. I give the Texans a 59 percent chance to win this game.
9. Atlanta Falcons
This game is virtually a pick 'em, but I expect the Falcons to be focused after 10 days of prep, and coming off two awful losses. I give them a 57 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
San Francisco 49ers -- They've looked good of late, but the Vikings can go toe to toe with anyone.
Los Angeles Chargers -- I don't like them in Mile High against a tough defense.
