On Target: Taking Advantage in SF

Take Cincinnati Bengals receiver A.J. Green, for example. He has a 32.7-percent target rate, which leads all receivers in the NFL and is vastly higher than any other receiver on the team. And while he was likely one of the first five (and that's being conservative) wide receivers off the board in your drafts, he's been held to 61 or fewer yards in four of six games and has been held out of the endzone in three of those. That means, in standard scoring leagues, he's scored six points or fewer in half his games. Scoring in PPR formats doesn't really help much either.

Meanwhile, if you look at teams with quarterbacks who like to spread the ball around, you'll notice a number of receivers have comparable fantasy point totals to the "elite" wideouts, simply because the defensive coverage cannot be so concentrated. Jordan Cameron continues to score big for his fantasy owners as Josh Gordon is pulling coverage away from him and vice versa. In Denver, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker have all seen similar target numbers and because of that, or maybe even as a result of that, each has been productive enough. It actually doesn't matter if it's the chicken or the egg coming first; the fact remains that guys like Welker, Thomas, Cameron and even Gordon have all scored similarly to Green despite not being as highly targeted by their respective quarterbacks because of fewer double-teams and lighter coverage.

So is it better to go with receivers who have a lower target percentage? Sometimes. Sometimes not. As we said, a higher target percentage usually means more opportunities to score, so if you're using receivers in a lower grouping of target percentage, you may get more consistent scoring, but with a lower ceiling and with less potential for that explosive 150-plus yard, multi-touchdown game. It's probably a safer route, but really ... no guts, no glory.

That's why, in leagues that start three receivers, I like to own one who sees a much higher percentage of targets on his team and then complement him with a pair of receivers who share the looks fairly evenly on their respective teams. It's all the potential for those big games from your high-end wideout with the consistency from the other two in case your top receiver gets blanketed by coverage. That, to me, is the safer route than having, say, Green and Calvin Johnson on your team as both continuously see the double-teams and, so far, it's worked out pretty well.

A little more than just two cents, but hey, that's why you subscribe, isn't it?

Now let's hit the target leaderboards.

Week 6 Target Leaders

(Click column headings to sort.)

And while Cecil Shorts, the man who made up the third part of the target-rate triumvirate, is still plenty high up, Tampa Bay's Vincent Jackson has pushed his way up thanks to four double-digit target games in the five he's played. Jackson was high up here last year as neither Mike Williams nor Dallas Clark, the Bucs tight end last season, pulled enough focus away from him to cut down his actual targets and now that Williams is hurt and there's simply no other worthwhile option at the tight-end position, Jackson should continue to stay atop this list.

Keep an eye on DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon as both could find themselves suffering from the same fate as Green and Boldin.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Wes Welker, WR NE (25) - That's now four weeks in a row atop this section, and while his overall target percentage is nearly identical to that of fellow wideouts Decker and Thomas, it's the extensive red-zone looks that push his value past so many others. His yardage totals may not be all that great, but he certainly makes up for it with a league-leading eight touchdown grabs.

Jordan Cameron, TE CLE (20) - He's been an animal this entire season, and while his numbers have suffered a bit these last two weeks, things should definitely smooth out once he's done adjusting to the transition back to Brandon Weeden. And as we've seen, the presence of Josh Gordon is only going to help his game.

Calvin Johnson, WR DET (20) - It's been a tough season for Johnson so far as he's yet to show what he's really capable of doing thanks to the abundance of blanket coverage. However, if he's now going to see the majority of red-zone targets for that team, his value should quickly rise back to a level to which we've all grown accustomed.

Tony Gonzalez, TE ATL (20) - If staying atop the red-zone targets leaderboard after a bye week doesn't tell you all you need to know, just check back with last week's column headline. Yes, the old man's still got it, and no, it's not going away any time soon.

Other Notables

Danny Woodhead, RB SD - The scrappy, little running back made a name for himself during the Jets' tranining camp aired on HBO's "Hard Knocks" as he ended up getting cut and picked up by the Patriots. He succeeded in New England in a limited role, but has fully blossomed this season as a go-to option for Philip Rivers. Yes, Keenan Allen is the new No. 1, but when he's being covered, Rivers is more inclined to dump it off to Woodhead than he is to wait and see if Vincent Brown can finagle his way into open field. The reliable 87.8-percent catch rate isn't hurting either.

Jordy Nelson, WR GB - He's been on and off the overall leaderboard with Aaron Rodgers having so many targets from which to choose, but now that Randall Cobb is out for several weeks, Nelson should see a serious increase in targets. James Jones will also see a potential increase, but he's also been dealing with recent injuries, so the heavy overflow should land Nelson's way.

Potential Risers (those who failed to make the overall leaderboard)

Brian Hartline
Jerome Simpson
Vernon Davis
Greg Olsen
Aaron Dobson

Potential Fallers

Randall Cobb
Julio Jones
Tavon Austin
Greg Little
Hakeem Nicks

Week 7 Matchup to Watch

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars - Highlighting the Cowboys/Eagles game is far too much of a no-brainer and given the abundance of fantasy points we've seen from both teams, there's no need to tell you to start almost everyone involved. So instead, I turn to some of the lesser must-starts, and that's here with the Chargers vs the Jags. The Chargers pass defense is lukewarm at best and gives up a ton of yards each week. Chad Henne will regularly find Blackmon, Shorts is going to try to play and if he doesn't, look for Ace Sanders to make a splash. I'd throw Marcedes Lewis in there as a possible sleeper, but that's still low end. Maurice Jones-Drew stands a better chance given the fact that the Chargers play the running back on passing downs just like Detroit. On the other side, Antonio Gates should be a hot start, and while Keenan Allen has been money in the bank these last couple weeks, I'm going to say that Eddie Royal and Vincent Brown just might be the ones to shine instead.