NFL Waiver Wire: Week 16 Deep Dive

We've hit crunch time with all leagues now in the playoffs. Unfortunately, more and more players are finding their way onto the COVID-19 protocols, making it difficult to decipher who may or may not be available come Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. We'll do our best to highlight some who will benefit most given the current state of things along with contingencies if circumstances change.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan vs. Lions (29 percent ESPN)

There aren't many inspiring streaming options at quarterback this week, but Ryan is seemingly the safest option due to at least a moderately positive matchup. There are a number of other factors in his favor, including being at home and the emergence of Russell Gage as a reliable target.

Ben Roethlisberger at Chiefs (20 percent ESPN)

Roethlisberger posted a poor game against Tennessee, but has otherwise recently turned back the clock from a fantasy perspective. Kansas City hasn't been a great matchup for opposing QBs, but the Steelers project to have to play from behind and that could lead to volume or garbage time points.

Jared Goff at Falcons (four percent ESPN)

Playing Goff is contingent on clearing COVID-19 protocols, but he's managed surprisingly strong results in recent weeks. Many of the same positive factors listed for Ryan also apply to Goff, highlighted by a dome game in addition to the emergence of multiple reliable targets.

Justin Fields at Seahawks (27 percent ESPN)

Fields' recent fantasy output dictates he fly to the top of this list, but a lot of his production came in garbage time against Minnesota. I also wouldn't be eager to start a rookie quarterback in Seattle, even if the Seahawks aren't a particularly high-quality team right now.

Tyler Huntley at Bengals (five percent ESPN)

Like Fields, Huntley's quality of play should land him higher. However, Lamar Jackson's ability to play in Week 16 is unclear, so it's difficult to rely on Huntley at this point. If news emerges Jackson is out, Huntley is a legitimate fantasy starter as he's shown the ability to produce both with his arm and legs in flashes across his last two starts.

Davis Mills vs. Chargers (one percent ESPN)

Mills has also quietly showed promise in the last two weeks. He's averaged 6.8 and 7.0 yards per attempt after only 6.5 across his first seven appearances this season. Mills isn't an option in most standard setups, but he's become viable in two-QB or superflex leagues.

Cam Newton vs. Buccaneers (27 percent ESPN)

In reality, Newton is a terrible start. However, he's rushed for a TD in all five of his games with Carolina while also running for 40 yards or more in three. That has given Newton a double-digit fantasy point floor despite the fact he's been extremely ineffective as the leader of the Carolina offense and is at risk of being benched at any point.   

Running Back

Justin Jackson at Texans (three percent ESPN)

Jackson's roster rate should considerably rise once waivers run on ESPN given the news Austin Ekeler has entered COVID-19 protocols. He may not get goal-line duties, though Joshua Kelley coughed up a fumble in that exact situation in Thursday's loss to the Chiefs. It's worth noting Ekeler could test out of the league's new policy by gameday. But for running back needy teams, Jackson is the priority this week among top options such as Ronald Jones, Jeff Wilson and Craig Reynolds.

Dontrell Hilliard vs. 49ers (35 percent ESPN)

Hilliard isn't the lead back in Tennessee, but he's shown flashes of strong production as a receiver and should comfortably chip in six-to-eight carries. That has the makings of a decent floor for those who are desperate based on injury/COVID-19 protocol shortages.

Ameer Abdullah vs. Buccaneers (seven percent ESPN)

Much like Hilliard, Abdullah has excelled as a receiver out of the backfield. He has extremely minimal involvement as a rusher, making Hilliard a slightly preferable option.  

Joshua Kelley at Texans (zero percent ESPN)

Kelley is likely to be the second piece of the Chargers' backfield puzzle if Austin Ekeler is out. However, he's been mistake-prone and not particularly effective in nearly two seasons as a pro so it's unclear how large his role will be.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn at Panthers (zero percent ESPN)

Le'Veon Bell at Panthers (two percent ESPN)

Tampa Bay is another murky backfield situation to monitor. Ronald Jones will presumably take over the lead back role in the absence of Leonard Fournette, and Vaughn appeared poised to operate as the backup. However, Wednesday's addition of Bell makes that far less clear. Chances are, neither will produce enough to be fantasy relevant making this duo likely best suited as watch list or stash candidates. 

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown at Falcons (25 percent ESPN)

St. Brown is likely rostered in all active leagues, or will be picked up in leagues that shifted waivers to run Thursday. Regardless, he's proven a must-roster player despite the circumstances in Detroit. It will be worth monitoring whether Jared Goff is able to clear protocols in time for Sunday, though St. Brown should at the very least be rostered based on recent success.

Gabriel Davis at Patriots (13 percent ESPN)

Emmanuel Sanders may well be back after missing last week as he logged a limited walkthrough practice Wednesday. Even so, Cole Beasley is ineligible to play Sunday, meaning Davis should be on the field for three-receiver sets regardless of Sanders' status. The Patriots have shut down opposing receivers this season, but presumably they'll dedicate the majority of their attention to Stefon Diggs. 

Allen Lazard vs. Browns (12 percent ESPN)

Lazard's line from Week 15 was a bit deceiving as he just missed connecting with Aaron Rodgers on multiple occasions in the end zone. However, he was still on the field for over 75 percent of offensive snaps and ran 26 routes. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is also currently in COVID-19 protocols, and his absence would promote Lazard to the second wide receiver role.

Tim Patrick at Raiders (17 percent ESPN)

Patrick posted his first fantasy-relevant stat-line since Week 9 last week against the Bengals and recorded the majority of his production with Drew Lock under center. Lock isn't an elite NFL quarterback by any measure, but is willing to push the ball down the field and take risks to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. That has the potential to benefit all Denver receivers, though the team will likely try to rely heavily on their rushing attack.

Josh Reynolds at Falcons (three percent ESPN)

Since Detroit's appearance in the Thanksgiving game Week 12, Reynolds has seen at least five targets and topped 50 receiving yards in every contest. He also has produced a pair of touchdowns during that span, meaning there are potential spike performances relative to the FLEX or WR3 position on fantasy rosters. Given the way Reynolds is used in the offense as a downfield threat, it's likely Jared Goff's potential absence would have a larger effect on his ability to produce compared to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Rashod Bateman at Bengals (25 percent ESPN)

Bateman has seen his routes run spike to 36 and 38 in Baltimore's last two outings. That's led to two very different results from a production standpoint, but it seems as if he's gained a foothold in the offense. With both Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins looking questionable to suit up, this could be Bateman's encore to his breakout Week 14 performance.

Zay Jones vs. Broncos (one percent ESPN)

Bryan Edwards vs. Broncos (eight percent ESPN)

Jones has quietly commanded at least seven targets in three of his last four games. His inability to work effectively down the field has resulted in muted fantasy point totals, but his involvement in the offense is undeniable. Jones is currently questionable due to a toe injury, so Edwards should have the chance to benefit if he's unable to take the field. 

Kadarius Toney at Eagles (25 percent ESPN)

Toney is set to clear COVID-19 protocols Thursday. It remains to be seen if he'll be available Sunday, but the absence of Sterling Shepard should open up targets – albeit in a horrific Giants' offense.

Byron Pringle vs. Steelers (one percent ESPN)

Mecole Hardman vs. Steelers (27 percent ESPN)

This duo is based entirely on the possibility KC will be missing both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Neither Pringle nor Hardman has done anything notable this season, but Mahomes will have to throw to someone with his top two targets potentially sidelined.

Marquez Callaway vs. Dolphins (29 percent ESPN)

Callaway has been limited by the Saints' lack of passing attack all year, though he spiked to nine targets in the win over Tampa Bay and produced. It's worth noting the impressive performance, though his ability to duplicate it this week seems minimal.

Donovan Peoples-Jones at Packers (18 percent ESPN)

Presumably both Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield will clear protocols prior to Saturday's matchup. The return of Mayfield should benefit Peoples-Jones, while the return of Landry shouldn't affect his ability to produce given the very different role they have in Cleveland's offense.

Antoine Wesley vs. Colts (zero percent ESPN)

Wesley ran 42 routes in the first game that DeAndre Hopkins was absent. He also earned eight targets – two of which came in the red zone – and appeared to score a touchdown prior to being called out of bounds upon further review. Wesley is currently questionable due to an ankle injury, so monitor his practice participation throughout the rest of the week. 

Nico Collins vs. Chargers (one percent ESPN)

Chris Conley vs. Chargers (zero percent ESPN)

As was noted earlier in the column, Davis Mills has gotten balls to his playmakers in his last couple starts. Brandin Cooks is currently in COVID-19 protocols, and his potential absence would require Collins and Conley to take on an increased role in the Texans' offense. 

Tight End

Cole Kmet at Seahawks (23 percent ESPN)

Kmet has been up and down in recent weeks, but has produced no fewer than five targets in any of his last four appearances. The role is there, which is about all that can be asked for from a waiver wire tight end.

Evan Engram at Eagles (28 percent ESPN)

Engram is limited by the Giants' offense, though he still holds a consistent role with at least five targets in eight of 12 games this season.

Gerald Everett vs. Bears (19 percent ESPN)

Everett has reached double-digit PPR points in four of his last six contests. It's not always pretty to watch the Seattle offense, but he's found a way to produce for fantasy purposes.

Nick Vannett vs. Dolphins (zero percent ESPN)

The entire Saints' tight end room is sidelined at the time this article was written other than Vannett. If Juwan Johnson or Adam Trautman clears COVID-19 protocols, Vannett becomes far less intriguing.

Ricky Seals-Jones at Cowboys (12 percent ESPN)

Seals-Jones showed some signs of life in his second game back from a lengthy absence. He worked as a checkdown option for Garrett Gilbert, but could see some more aggressive looks down the field if Taylor Heinicke clears protocols for Sunday Night.

Noah Gray vs. Steelers (zero percent ESPN)

Like Vannett, Gray is the last tight end standing for the Chiefs. That could change by Sunday, and he'd obviously lose all value if Travis Kelce was cleared from COVID-19 protocols.