This article is part of our Fantasy Football Draft Strategy series.
The RotoWire crew spent the MLB All-Star break in Las Vegas for its annual trip to the desert, which included plenty of gambling, cocktails, pool time, and, of course, fantasy football drafts.
Three football drafts took place on the morning of July 15. Comprised of three 14-team conferences, the RotoWire Vegas League uses one QB, PPR scoring and the standard points and positions. Each conference functions as an independent league until the playoffs.
Below is an analysis of trends and topics that emerged from the draft.
Strip Conference Draft Results
Downtown Conference Draft Results
Franchises Conference Draft Results
The Great (Ja'Marr) Chase
With 42 fantasy managers drafting off the same RotoWire cheat sheets, it's no surprise round-by-round picks diverged little across the three conferences. However, one of the biggest discrepancies came early.
In the Strip Conference, RotoWire gambling expert John McKechnie drafted Ja'Marr Chase second overall. Chase didn't go until the fifth pick in the Downtown Conference and eighth (!) in the Franchises Conference.
McKechnie didn't take Chase on a whim -- he predicts the star wideout will win Offensive Player of the Year. "He hasn't reached his peak season," McKechnie said. "This is his fourth year. It's happening."
Chase's fall to No. 8 in the Franchises Conference wasn't totally inexplicable. CeeDee Lamb was the first wide receiver off the board to gambling writer Adam Warner, in line with industry ADP. President Peter Schoenke then passed on Chase at No. 3 to take Tyreek Hill but said it was a 50/50 decision. "There's probably a little recency bias," he admitted. Director of Media D.J. Trainor went with Garrett Wilson at No. 4, simply because, "I am have him in a bunch of best-ball leagues."
Marketing consultant Brad Sockloff went with Justin Jefferson at No. 5 but said he would have taken Chase if Jefferson was gone. Director of Operations Kevin O'Brien (AKA KOB) interrupted the wide receiver run at No. 6 with a reasonable Bijan Robinson pick before web developer Andrew Parr took Amon-Ra St. Brown at No. 7. That left features editor Salvatore Stefanile with the no-brainer pick of Chase at eight. Sal was delighted with the gift.
Chase's median rank in our latest RotoWire Roundtable is fourth, ranging from two to four among our four prognosticators.
McKechnie's mustache game is so strong it makes Tom Selleck question his existence, but the nagging fact is the Bengals ceased throwing downfield the last two years.
In 2022, just 7.9 percent of Joe Burrow's attempts traveled beyond 20 yards and his average target depth dropped to 6.8 yards. Last year was even worse — 6.8 percent (30th in the league) and 6.3 yards (32nd). It wasn't just a Burrow thing either. Jake Browning, who played nine games last season, had a 6.4-yard average target depth — the only QB he bested was Burrow.
Chase had 34 targets of 20-plus yards as a rookie but just 37 deep targets the last two seasons combined.
McKechnie is betting Chase can combine his rookie-year deep game with his short-area volume from the last two years. John is right more often than not, which probably means Chase will go off this year.
Get Your Guy
McKechnie's targeting of Chase is a good example of not letting the room pick for you. Fantasy leagues are like high school — no one wants to look stupid. That goes for your home league and for industry leagues of so-called experts. This draft was a good reminder to draft players you like — whether ADP dictates so or not.
Trainor's above mentioned pick of Wilson fits that bill, as does DFS writer Ryan Belongia's pick of Puka Nacua ninth overall (ADP: 13th ) in the Downtown Conference, NBA Editor Kirien Sprecher's pick of Robinson second overall in the same league and DFS writer Jeff Edgerton's pick of Trevor Lawrence in the fourth round in the Franchises Conference.
There were others. Those are just the ones who stood out. But more power to those who got their guys.
On the other hand, it's not impossible to be too aggressive getting your guy — see "Reach of the Draft" below.
To Wait or Not to Wait on QBs, That is the Question
The quarterback question is always an issue in single-QB leagues. Do you jump in early with one of the elites or wait on other signal callers while building depth at running back and wide receiver?
The first quarterback went off the board at nearly the same point in each draft. Each time it was Josh Allen, at 3.07 (Franchises), 3.07 (Strip) and 3.08 (Downtown).
Each conference followed a similar pattern: the first seven or so quarterbacks were drafted in rounds three and four, followed by a handful of QBs taken in the next six rounds. After that, most teams took second QBs at their leisure while a select few waited ... and waited ... and waited ... for their first quarterback.
Stefanile spoke for all those who waited. "Between the eighth and 14th QB, there's not much difference," said Sal, who took rookie Jayden Daniels as his first quarterback. "I waited (until the 11th round) until the other guys started to take a second QB."
KOB said the depth at the position -- plus the fact he was the last drafter to snag one -- made it easy to wait to draft a quarterback. His first came in the 12th round with this year's top overall pick, Caleb Williams. For his backup QB, he went with pre-draft target and man-crush Aaron Rodgers two rounds later — easily his favorite pick of the day.
"I got nothing but love for him," a giddy KOB gushed.
The difference between most top quarterbacks and those drafted later comes down to rushing stats. Most of the top 10 quarterbacks have a rushing base to boost their weekly fantasy points. Those who waited the longest to draft their first quarterback targeted rushing upside with Daniels, Williams or Deshaun Watson. Each has risk — rookie, rookie, injury, respectively — but if they pop, the fun might not stop.
The other quarterback who went late as a first QB was Trevor Lawrence. He runs a bit, has perhaps his best supporting cast yet and likely will see positive regression in the red zone after a below-average TD pass percentage last season. Edgerton saw that upside and wasn't about to let his Franchises Conference competitors snipe Lawrence, so he took him in the fourth round, even if that might have been a bit early (see "Get Your Guy" above). DFS editor Ryan Pohle (Strip) and app developer Tim McCaigue (Downtown) drafted Lawrence in the 10th and 11th rounds, respectively.
Tech Tim is a "Jeopardy" champion and creator of RotoWire's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit app, so Lawrence will probably be the NFL MVP this season.
Steals of the Draft
A post-draft survey yielded no consensus on which players were steals. Perhaps this is to be expected, differing opinions and all. Below are players who got votes as steals. Each player is listed with his draft spot and, for reference, the spots he went in the other conferences, along with a manager's comment.
STRIP CONFERENCE
Tyreek Hill, 1.07 - "Hill at 7th overall was wild." Franchises: 1.03, Downtown: 1.02
Sam LaPorta, 2.07 - "This wasn't a draft filled with notable value picks, but LaPorta midway through round three — in a 14-team league — was a steal." Franchises: 3.04, Downtown: 3.01
Travis Kelce, 3.04 - "Considering where he went in the other two drafts, Kelce in the early third round is a pretty good value." Franchises: 2.02, Downtown: 2.13
Jayden Daniels, 10.01 - "Daniels was the 13th QB off the board. He has huge upside with that rushing ability and a true WR1 in Terry McLaurin." Franchises: 11.08, Downtown: 10.14
DOWNTOWN CONFERENCE
CeeDee Lamb, 1.07 - "Can't fault anyone for the players who went before CeeDee, but he easily could have gone before the running backs (Robinson and Breece Hall)." Franchises: 1.02, Strip: 1.03
Jameson Williams, 8.09 - "Williams has the potential for a huge season. Jason 'The Polish Parlay' Shebilske needed a second receiver pretty badly and Williams was sitting there ripe for the picking in the eighth round." Franchises: 10.06, Strip: 8.09
FRANCHISES CONFERENCE
Ja'Marr Chase, 1.08 - "Chase at eight is a serious stroke of good fortune. He should have at worst gone fourth." Downtown: 1.05, Strip: 1.02
Dalton Kincaid, 4.08 - "Buffalo's receiving corps has questions everywhere and Kincaid could wind up as the top option in the passing game." Downtown: 4.07, Strip: 4.12
Nick Chubb, 5.05 - "Chubb's ADP in all three drafts was probably the best value considering the recent news out of camp." Downtown: 8.05, Strip: 9.03
Kyler Murray, 6.05 - "The Cardinals will have to throw the ball to keep up this year, and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. gives Murray a No. 1 target. He has top-5 QB potential." Downtown: 7.03, Strip: 5.06
Jaleel McLaughlin, 10.08 - "He has enormous value as the 'backup' running back on the Broncos as he is in a prime spot to usurp the No. 1 RB role from presumed starter Javonte Williams." Downtown: 10.07, Strip: 11.13
Reaches of the Draft
Like steals, there was little consensus on reaches, probably partly because most recognize the "Get Your Guy" factor (see above). Still, a few picks stood out.
STRIP CONFERENCE
Isiah Pacheco, 2.02 - "I'm a card-carrying Pacheco Guy, but taking him at 16 over Travis Etienne, plus an entire tier's worth of appealing WR options, was a bit of a reach." Franchises: 2.07, Downtown: 2.06
Travis Etienne, 2.03 - "Etienne at 2.03 might feel a little high, especially considering Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs and De'Von Achane were still on the board." Franchises: 2.10, Downtown: 2.09
Malik Nabers, 3.09 - "There were excellent receivers on the board with safer floors and similar ceilings. Nabers likely would have lasted another round or two." Franchises: 5.06, Downtown: 4.08
DOWNTOWN CONFERENCE
Kareem Hunt, 12.13 - "Hunt being drafted at all is a reach." Franchises: undrafted, Strip: undrafted
Tyjae Spears, 8.04 - "I had some room to reach for upside on a fourth running back in the eighth but probably could have gotten Spears later or punted to a tight end, which I really needed at that point." Franchises: 8.10, Strip: 9.06
Raheem Mostert, 5.02 and Kendre Miller, 5.14 - "Both could have gone later." Franchises: 7.10/10.12, Strip: 7.06/8.14
FRANCHISES CONFERENCE
Gabe Davis, 3.01 - "Too many mimosas at breakfast is the only explanation for this pick." Downtown: 10.05, Strip: 10.03
Trevor Lawrence, 4.03 - "Lawrence as the QB4 in round four before elite, upside QBs such as Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud was a bit of a reach." Downtown: 11.12, Strip: 10.06
Tua Tagovailoa, 8.03 - "Didn't need to go for a second QB that early." Downtown: 11.12, Strip: 11.08
Pick to Win
We asked each fantasy manager to predict their conference winner. The one catch was they could not pick their own team. Here are the most popular responses. We'll revisit these predictions at the end of the season.
STRIP CONFERENCE
Team 1, Jim Coventry - "CMC and Anthony Richardson could break fantasy football this season and lead Jim to the promised land."
Team 4, Joe Bartel - "Jefferson, Jacobs, Kelce, Lamar Jackson, Tank Dell was a really nice start. He's going to need some young players to hit, but if they do his team should be in great shape."
Team 5, Jeff Erickson - "Love the hero RB approach with Breece Hall. Great starting lineup at all positions. Decent depth for a 14-team league."
Team 12, Eric Caturia - "Two solid running backs and Mahomes."
DOWNTOWN CONFERENCE
Team 3, Kirien Sprecher - "Elite RB, solid WRs, upside QB."
Team 6, Jason Shebilske - "Jason didn't make a bad pick and has no weak spots. That's tough to do in a 14-team league."
Team 13, Ryan Belongia - "Ryan drafted a good team with floor and ceiling."
FRANCHISES CONFERENCE
Team 2, Adam Warner - "C.J. Stroud could go off this season. If he runs more, he'll be a top-3 QB."
Team 3, Peter Schoenke - "The first seven picks give him a solid, solid starting lineup — Hill, Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, Jake Ferguson and Joe Burrow. All he has to do is find a flex option from the rest of his picks."
Team 5, Brad Sockloff - "If Chubb is healthy (and his workout videos look promising) then he is a steal in the fifth round. Jordan Love, Brock Bowers, Spears and Mike Williams are solid upside picks to go with steady, low-risk picks like Jefferson, Etienne and Derrick Henry."
Team 11, Juan Pablo Aravena - "Starting with Nacua, Jahmyr Gibbs, DK Metcalf, Hurts and George Kittle is a juggernaut of a squad that should provide plenty of points via receptions and rushing touchdowns. It will be hard to beat."
As far as this writer is concerned, Team 13 in the Franchises Conference looks unbeatable.
What Say You?
What do you think? Love a team? Hate a pick? Let us know, and predict the winners in the comments section below!
