This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Stat Leaders 2024 Best Bets
We finally made it! The NFL is back this week, kicking off the season opener between Baltimore and Kansas City on Thursday evening. It was a good summer filled with Casamigos and Clubs on the rocks with a lime (my go-to drink), ripping up the Jersey Shore (the house that I built), and prepping for football season. There's a lot to unpack, too much for one article, so I'll start out slow by taking a look at a few stat leaders markets with odds from our NFL player futures odds page.
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NFL Passing Yards Leader
While the 2023 season featured some of the worst collective statistical QB play we've seen in about the last 15 years, it's hard to repeat. We've been used to seeing 5,000-yard passers and 40 TD seasons, but we weren't that close to having one. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in yards with only 4,624, the lowest since Tom Brady's 4,577 in 2017. Outside of that, a leader hadn't been that low since the 4,418 yards Drew Brees put up in 2006 in his first season with NOLA. For Dak Prescott's NFL-leading 36 pass tuddies, it's not as dramatic, but it's just the fourth time since 2011 where the leader was sub-40 TDs. That stat is a bit harder to replicate as evidenced by we've had no repeat leader since 2011-2012 Brees.
When you take a look at trying to identify a yards leader, disregard the odds for a moment. Gather a handful of candidates with a legit path to winning this feat. The volume is one of the biggest factors. In the last decade, there have been a few players who have won the title delivering about 550-575 pass attempts, but for the most part, the base should be 600.
Only two players hit that many attempts in '23, Sam Howell and Jared Goff (came in second). Next, you need an legit pass-catching group that can move with big chunk plays and efficiency. Another factor may be project team outcome. You can look at a team that may have a bad defense and will typically be playing from behind. Ideally, targeting a guy who can throw for at least 4,800 yards will put you in the conversation. Now we throw in the odds to see what's a good position to take.
The NFL passing yards leader odds aren't great on these players, so waiting is definitely an option.
Patrick Mahomes +800 (FanDuel)
Obviously, this is a little chalk lattee. Getting the NFL's Golden Boy who is on the fast track to being a first-ballot HOF, no no-brainer. Patty Mahomes accomplished the feat back in 2022 with one of the best seasons ever from a QB- 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns. We know the volume should be there, he had 645+ attempts in '21 and '22 playing 17 games both seasons. And 597 last year in 16 games.
Mahomes still has the receiving corps with Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and now Hollywood Brown (who will miss a few games). Nevertheless, he'll still find a way to get his. Schedule-wise, it's not too brutal from a stat prospective. There are some tough matchups, but he usually finds a way. What it comes down to is the pricing difference where it's +800 here and 5/1 on DraftKings. A player this amazing can't be +800.
Other players, I am keeping an eye on are Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud, Matthew Stafford, and Jordan Love.
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Rushing Yards Leader
The rushing title is becoming a lost art in the game. The bell cow/workhorse running backs are becoming more obsolete by the day. The simplicity of being able to consistently and effectively run the rock is still there for a handful of players though. Like passing and receiving, it's an award that requires a unique blend of opportunity and efficiency.
There are a lot of backs that would be good looks if they had more carries, like a Jahmyr Gibbs. That's why you can really narrow down this market. The sweet spot in this NFL rushing leader odds market is finding a player who can crack at least 270 attempts (with a path towards 300+) and hit a 4.7 YPC average.
Kyren Williams +1600 (FanDuel)
This one is going to rile some people up. The truth is I picked Kyren a couple of weeks ago before the punt-returning thing was announced. While I think it's pure stupidity to have your RB1 returning punts, I still don't think it's going to hinder him.
As a returner, it's just the elevated injury risk, which is fair, but people are acting like Blake Corum has now gained a 50/50 split. In all actuality, Corum can have a decent workload, while Kyren still has a commanding share. Here's the point of KW, we saw what looks to be the second coming of Todd Gurley in the Sean McVay system. A dude who was third in rush yards in '23 despite only playing 12 contests. Running with power, speed, vision, and decisiveness.
Kyren was only one of three backs last season to have at least 220 carries and a 4.7 YPC mark (James Cook and CMC). Obviously, it's a passing buffet in LA with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua, but it's still going to be a team that runs the ball at least 20-25 times per game because that's what has been the point of success for the Rams. The McVay system is built off the run to set up play action as well as any other team. The workload doesn't concern me, I think there is a path for Williams to have at least 275 carries if he stays healthy.
Josh Jacobs +1600 (DraftKings)
I wasn't really looking at Josh Jacobs at all until a few days ago. The news that AJ Dillon has a serious neck injury combined with rookie back, MarShawn Lloyd battling a hammy has me thinking we could potentially get a 2022 Jacobs year. JJ had a King Henry type of year a couple of years ago where he had 340 carries and 1,653 yards with 12 tuddies. If Henry hadn't missed a game 115 yards away, he maybe grabs another rush title. The point is we see a path with Jacobs in Green Bay.
The backfield right now is undeniably his. The only question is how much tread he has left on those tires? Outside of that '22 season, he never played a full campaign. He's had a 4.0 YPC in three of his last four seasons. The thing is: he played for a bad Raiders team that had optimistically an average-at-best O-line in his five seasons. Now he joins GB with a fresh outlook and what should be a top 10 offensive line.
The Pack made awesome progress last season with Jordan Love, but if they are going to take it a step further, they need a punishing back who can take over a game in the Lambeau cold in December. Jacobs is a candidate for 300 totes this season, but if he has a strong efficiency is a different conversation. At 16/1, I think it's worth a look. He'll definitely be worth the look for rushing touchdowns leader this year as well (17/1).
Other Players I am eyeing: Isiah Pacheco, James Cook, and Chase Brown.
Rushing Touchdown Leader
Josh Allen +1900 (FanDuel)
Touchdown leaders in general are fluky markets. You have non-workhorses that pop out of nowhere like Raheem Mostert and Jamaal Williams. It's basically asking if you pick a guy that will get a lot of opportunity in the Red Zone and at the goal line. Allen is not only a great bang for your buck, but he's way underpriced in my opinion.
He had 15 scores last year, and his team only got worse. He's going to be calling his own number a lot more this year, especially in the money zone. He was seventh last year with 14 carries inside the five yard line. James Cook wasn't a huge factor in the Red Zone last season anyhow, only scoring twice on the ground. Since 2018 Todd Gurley, the minimum number to lead has been 16, a very feasible request for Allen.
Kyren at 18/1 draws appeal for me, as well as Jacobs at 17/1. My longshot though has to be Gus Edwards at 70/1. He led the NFL with 19 carries inside the 5 a season ago. He's had 13 scores each in two of his last three seasons.
NFL Receptions Leader
This was near and dear to my heart last year. I took Amon-Ra at 18/1, which was still incredible value. As usual with a lot of my futures, I get left in utter disappointment when my guys are right there. ARSB tied for second with 119 in only 16 contests, while the eventual winner Cee Dee Lamb comes out of nowhere for 135 grabs.
The 2024 type of Sun God break out, at least in terms of odds, looks like it may be Michael Pittman Jr (17/1). Over the last 10 years, the average number of catches for the leader has been 129. If your guy doesn't have a shot for 130 grabs, it's usually not gonna win. Targets-wise, the catches leader is mostly in the top three or four, if not one. The typical threshold the last few years is in the 180's. Additionally, I've seen the NFL receptions leader market get taken down once the season starts, so there's usually no mid-season buyback.
Tyreek Hill +1100 (DraftKings)
This is usually a chalky market. It's reserved for a high-volume pass catcher that converts at a high percentage of catches to target ratio. Hill is coming off consecutive 119-catch seasons on the nose with 170/171 targets. Miami does have a ton of weapons on what is literally an NFL track team offense. When you look at the Cheetah, he's evolved his game as a game-breaking one-trick pony speedster to a polished elite WR in the NFL. And his stats have reflected that.
Since his move to the Dolphins, Hill has locked in with Mike McDaniel's offense that is predicated to pristine timing. He really only played 15 games last season, so if he plays a full 17, I think we're going to see him clear 185 targets and rack up close to 140 grabs.
There's really only a handful of realistic candidates. CeeDee Lamb at 6/1 is still a threat in that offense, but I'm not a fan of players who sit out most of the summer because of elevated injury risk. ARSB is definitely going to be up there, but 6/1 in a run-first offense is a bit scary. Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, and Ja'Marr Chase are great but I don't see them getting enough volume.
Pittman is definitely a play, but the Anthony Richardson QB combined with health is a big up-in-the-air thing, and 17/1 is just too short for that. In terms of favorites, the best bang for your buck is A.J. Brown at 22/1. Worth a stab for sure. My big longshot this season is Ladd McConkey at 75/1.
Receiving Yards Leader
Tyreek Hill +650 (FanDuel) 2u
More chalk. If you break down the receiving yards leader market at the top of the board, there are a lot of question marks. Chase, Jefferson, Lamb etc. The same explanations for catches carry over with yards. Jefferson is more concerning with Sam Darnold as his QB. Amon-Ra is definitely a threat after a 1,515 yard season is just 16 contests. 11/1 on DK is there for the Sun God, and I don't hate it.
Garrett Wilson is intriguing, but keep in mind Aaron Rodgers has never had a WR lead the league in yards. The point is there are not that many threats, and even though Hill is short, he's been automatic with consecutive 1,700-yard seasons. He has the volume, efficiency, QB play, and system to pull this off for the second year in a row. The title usually requires a player that needs a minimum of 1,500 yards to have a chance on an off-year. Typically, you need to be pushing close to 1,700 yards to really lock in on it.
The other appealing options at the price start with DJ Moore 41/1. I think he could be a monster this season, especially if he locks in with Caleb as his main squeeze early. Marvin Harrison at 30/1 seems too short for a rookie to do something nobody else has ever done. Puka Nacua set the rookie receiving yards record last year with 1,486, which was good for fourth best. The problem is this is a market where it's difficult to fall behind early and catch up. It's worth a sprinkle for Marv because of the high variance and potential.
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Receiving Touchdowns Leader
Garrett Wilson +1600 (FanDuel)
Unlike rushing TD's, receiving ones are less fluky. It's typically done by an Alpha WR1 or premier Tight End. Over the last decade, the average leader is about 14 scores per season. So realistically, 13-14 tuddies puts you in the conversation. Hill and Mike Evans both had a baker's dozen last season to lead the NFL.
Why I love Wilson this year is because unlike in yards, Rodgers has had a wideout accomplish this feat three times in his career with handful of other top-three finishes accompanied by a top-five finish. An Aaron Rodgers' WR1 is almost always going to have a chance to win this receiving touchdowns leader market because of the absurd target share, especially in the red zone. This could be the last season for A-Rod, so I think he leaves it all on the field.
Sam LaPorta at 35/1 is my best longshot.
