NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 2

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Line Movement and Odds Changes for Week 2

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, key numbers are - 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 2 Odds

BYES: NONE

NFL Week 2 Schedule

• Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins -2.5; O/U 50.0-50.5
• Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens -9.5; O/U 41.5
  • Peaked at Ravens -10; buyback on the Raiders now have it -8.0 or -8.5
  • Total is now down to 40.5 or 41.0  
• Los Angeles Chargers -5.5/-6.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 39.0-39.5 
  • Peaked at -6.5; buyback on the Panthers down to -4.5, now -5.0
• New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys -6.5/-7.0; O/U 45.0-45.5
  • Buyback on the Saints have it at Cowboys -6.0
  • Total hovering around 47.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions -6.0/-6.5; O/U 49.5/50.5
  • Crossed over 7.0 and went to 7.5 in favor of the Lions.
  • Total bumped up to 51.5; Bucs have multiple injuries in the secondary
• Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Green Bay Packers O/U 41.0/41.5
  • Has bounced around from 2.5 and 3.0; total was down to 40, but now back up to 41.5 
• Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars -4.0; O/U 41.5
  • Buyback on the Browns drop number to Jags -3.0
• San Francisco 49ers -5.5 at Minnesota Vikings O/U 45.5
  • Peaked at -6.5, buyback on the Vikings have it now 49ers -4.5-5.0
  • Total bumped up to 46.5 
• Seattle Seahawks -3.5 at New England Patriots O/U 38.0/38.5 
• New York Jets -4.0/-4.5 at Tennessee Titans O/U 41.5/42.0
• New York Giants at Washington Commanders -2.5; O/U 43.5
  • Commanders down to -1.5 or -2.0. 
• Los Angeles Rams -1.0/-1.5 at Arizona Cardinals O/U 49.5/50.5 
  • Cardinals -1.0 after the Rams OL injury report
• Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs -5.5/-6.0; O/U 48.0/48.5
  • KC now -6.5 after Tee Higgins OUT and unknown about Ja'Marr Chase status. 
  • Total dipped to 47.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 at Denver Broncos O/U 36.5/37.0
  • Steelers -2.5 or -3.0, total 36-36.5
• Chicago Bears at Houston Texans -6.5; O/U 45.5/46.5
  • Total down to 44.5 or 45.0 
• Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles -6.5; O/U 48.0/48.5
  • A.J. Brown OUT, Eagles now -6.0 total dropped to 46.5

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NFL Week 2 Injury News

• QB 
  • Jordan Love, GB - MCL sprain out 3 to 6 weeks. Huge impact to the Packers lines on both the sides and totals. The side has already moved 8 points this week which feels very aggressive and an overreaction.
  • Josh Allen, BUF - Left hand injury. This is a concern only because of the short week with the Thursday game against the Dolphins.  
• RB
  • Kenneth Walker, SEA - Abdomen. 
• WR
  • Puka Nacua, WR - Right knee.  On IR, will miss at least 4 weeks
  • Jordan Addison, WR - Ankle
• TE
  • Jake Ferguson, DAL - MCL sprain
  • David Njoku, CLE - Ankle, left game in a walking boot.  
• OL
  • Steve Avila, LAR - Knee. Missed the rest of the Sunday night game.
  • Joe Noteboom, LAR - Ankle 
  • Rob Havenstein, LAR - Ankle
  • George Fant, SEA - Knee
  • Jack Conklin, CLE - Knee
• DL
  • Derrick Brown, CAR - Mensicus. This is a huge injury for a defense that was already in the bottom of the league and was torched for 47 points by the Saints. The line on the Panthers has already moved from +3 to +6 at home against the Chargers in Week 2. 
  • DeForest Bucker, IND - Back injury. 
• LB
• DB
  • Tampa Bay lost several defensive backs in the game against Washington. 
    • Bryce Hall - Dislocated ankle, fractured fibula. Could be season ending.
    • Josh Hayes - Ankle
    • Zyon McCollum - Concussion
  • Marshon Lattimore, NO - Hamstring
  • Nick McCloud, NYG - Knee. (An already very weak Giants secondary)

NFL Week 2 Odds Observations

• Another significant decrease in passing touchdowns in a Week 1 versus typical weeks. This continues a trend as teams not playing starters in the preseason obviously has a huge impact.
• One game lined over 7 points (Raiders/Ravens), but several games sit in the 6.0-6.5 range (Chargers/Panthers, Saints/Cowboys, Bucs/Lions, Bears/Texans, Falcons/Eagles)
• 8 totals hover in the 37.0 - 41.0 range as those are key numbers, and 4 games line in the 48.0 - 51.0 range
• Teams that saw a decline in their Power Rating after Week 1 - Giants, Panthers, Browns, Bengals, Packers (Love injury), Bears, Falcons, Raiders
• Teams that saw a bump in their Power Rating after Week 1 - Chargers, Cowboys, Lions, Colts, Vikings, Steelers, Texans, Eagles
• As I was writing this article, word came out about a tropical storm set to hit the South over the next week so pay attention to the weather. (Charlotte expected to get rain Fri-Sun). 

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NFL Week 2 Line Movement

Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers

The biggest line move of the week that does not involve a starting quarterback injury. The Panthers got smoked by the Saints 47-10 and played badly in all facets. This game look ahead was -3.0 in favor of the Chargers, who had a solid but unspectacular win against the Raiders. The line moved mostly because of how bad the Panthers looked, on top of the news that DL Derrick Brown will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury. 

Normally losing a non-elite defensive player will impact the line by a point at the most. But in this case, the Panthers defense is so bad and Brown was their best player, it just compounds things. 

The total has also taken a significant shift downward as the Chargers and Raiders combined for 32 points in a very run heavy game. The Panthers scored just 10 against the Saints. The total opened at 43.5 and has plummeted to 39.0. With rain expected in Charlotte all weekend, look for this total to continue to fall. 

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers 

Our first big injury is quarterback Jordan Love, who took a hit to his knee on the last series against the Eagles. It originally looked very bad, but Love will miss "only" 3-6 weeks. Now Malik Willis starts, with the Packers potential signing Ryan Tannehill. 

The point spread has already moved a full 8 points on the side and 6 points on the total. 8 points for Love is a very aggressive move and feels like an overreaction. I can see the Colts as PK or  even -1, but they did put up a strong performance against the Texans. 

Green Bay was -4.5 with a healthy Jordan Love, and that has swung all the way to Colts -3.5. The total has gone from 47.0 down to 41.0. The implied score is Colts 22-19 which I think is in the ballpark total wise, but I could see the Packers pulling out a win. I do think it is a lot to ask the Colts as a road favorite, as the Packers have a deep team that still could hang tough. 

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars 

This line move is all on the Browns, and for the wrong reasons. The Cowboys destroyed the Browns in Cleveland, 33-17, and the final score overstates the competitiveness of the actual game  Deshaun Watson looked terrible and has no excuses anymore. The Cowboys were thought to have taken a step back with the lack of improvement at running back and other units that look noticeably weaker, but they came out firing against the Browns. 

The Browns have issues on the offensive line and tight end David Njoku left in a walking boot. The Jaguars played the Dolphins close, 20-17, but much of that was on the Dolphins not capitalizing on scoring opportunities as they put up 400 total yards. 

The Jaguars opened -1 and have now moved up to -4, which crossed over the key number of 3. I think it stays at 4 for the time being but the total which has gone from 45.0 to 41.5 could continue to move down with the tropical storm situation brewing. 

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals defense may get shredded all season as they play very soft and their games will have high totals. Their offense will play up tempo and they have quality skill position players. The Rams defense is also not as strong as a year ago without Aaron Donald, who retired. 

This line opened Rams -4.0 and then got bet down to Rams -1.5.  The Cardinals were in line to beat the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday, but failed to keep the lead (again, weak defense). 

The total is where the real line movement has taken place with an opening number of 46.0 that now sits at 50.5. It crossed over the key numbers 47, 48, etc. and could get up to 51. 

Other notables 

Seahawks/Patriots total has gone from 42.5 to 38.0

Steelers/Broncos total has gone from 41.5 to 37.0

Bears/Texans spread has gone from Texans -3.0 to -6.5

Falcons/Eagles has gone from Eagles -3.5 to -6.5