This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Cleveland (+7.5) at Green Bay, o/u 45.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST
The NFC North remains chaotic, but at the moment the Browns are in the basement at 7-7 and outside of a wild-card spot as well, and their closing schedule doesn't offer much hope for a late surge. For that reason, last week's loss to the Raiders with Nick Mullens at the helm hurts all the more. Baker Mayfield should be back for this one, but there's really no way to tell how he'll perform — he could be rusty after being away from practice for more than a week, but he could also have used the time off to get a bit healthier overall. The offense runs through Nick Chubb anyway, but an effective Mayfield could force the Packers' defense to back off the line a bit. The last thing Cleveland wants is for its QB to get into a gunslinging contest with Aaron Rodgers, who's been in MVP form the last four weeks — 70.5 percent completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 13:0 TD:INT. He's led Green Bay to a division crown and a grip on the No. 1 seed in the NFC with that stretch, and they were the first team in the league to lock up a playoff spot thanks to their narrow escape against the Ravens. The fact that Rodgers is playing at that level behind an offensive line now missing its top three tackles is even more impressive, and the Browns might not be
Cleveland (+7.5) at Green Bay, o/u 45.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST
The NFC North remains chaotic, but at the moment the Browns are in the basement at 7-7 and outside of a wild-card spot as well, and their closing schedule doesn't offer much hope for a late surge. For that reason, last week's loss to the Raiders with Nick Mullens at the helm hurts all the more. Baker Mayfield should be back for this one, but there's really no way to tell how he'll perform — he could be rusty after being away from practice for more than a week, but he could also have used the time off to get a bit healthier overall. The offense runs through Nick Chubb anyway, but an effective Mayfield could force the Packers' defense to back off the line a bit. The last thing Cleveland wants is for its QB to get into a gunslinging contest with Aaron Rodgers, who's been in MVP form the last four weeks — 70.5 percent completion rate, 8.9 YPA, 13:0 TD:INT. He's led Green Bay to a division crown and a grip on the No. 1 seed in the NFC with that stretch, and they were the first team in the league to lock up a playoff spot thanks to their narrow escape against the Ravens. The fact that Rodgers is playing at that level behind an offensive line now missing its top three tackles is even more impressive, and the Browns might not be in position to take advantage of that liability with Myles Garrett at less than 100 percent healthy and Jadeveon Clowney not guaranteed to suit up.
The Skinny
CLE injuries: QB Mayfield (questionable, COVID-19), QB Case Keenum (questionable, COVID-19), RB Kareem Hunt (doubtful, ankle/COVID-19), WR Jarvis Landry (questionable, COVID-19), LT Jedrick Wills (questionable, COVID-19), C JC Tretter (doubtful, COVID-19), DE Garrett (questionable, groin), DE Clowney (questionable, COVID-19), CB Greg Newsome (doubtful, concussion/COVID-19), S John Johnson (out, hamstring), S Ronnie Harrison (questionable, ankle/COVID-19)
GB injuries: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (questionable, COVID-19), WR Randall Cobb (IR, groin), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), RT Billy Turner (out, knee), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR-R, shoulder)
CLE DFS targets: Austin Hooper $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (GB 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
GB DFS targets: Allen Lazard $4,100 DK / $5,200 FD (CLE 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)
CLE DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: none
Key stat: GB is t-8th in third-down conversions at 42.4 percent; CLE is 20th in third-down defense at 41.2 percent
Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Aaron Jones leads the GB backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a TD, while AJ Dillon adds 50 yards. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Davante Adams and Lazard. Chubb bangs out 80 yards and a touchdown. Mayfield can't get much going, throwing for 210 yards. Packers 27-13
Indianapolis (+1) at Arizona, o/u 49.0 – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Colts keep doing their part, beating the Patriots last week and winning five of their last six, but the Titans' refusal to outright collapse without Derrick Henry has put the AFC South title seemingly out of reach. Jonathan Taylor is the main reason Indy's even headed for the postseason at all, of course, and he's on the brink of setting a couple records if the Cards can't shut him down — he needs one more trip to the end zone to tie the Colts' record for TDs in a season, and if he scores on the ground this week, he'll set a NFL single-season mark with rushing TDs in 12 consecutive games. He's also less than 150 scrimmage yards away from 2,000 on the year, and Edgerrin James' franchise mark of 2,303 in a season isn't out of reach. If the NFL gave MVP awards to non-quarterbacks any more, Taylor would be the guy. The Colts might also be catching the Cards at the right time — the juggernaut that was once the league's last unbeaten team at 7-0 has now lost two straight after a no-show against the Lions. Injuries have taken their toll on Arizona, with DeAndre Hopkins the latest loss, but it's the defense that's been the biggest issue. It's one thing to let the Rams score 30 points against you, it's quite another to let Detroit (and Carolina in November) to reach that mark. Heck, even letting the Bears top 20 isn't great. If Kyler Murray were fully healthy they could probably outscore most opponents, but after watching him manage only three rushing yards last week it's fair to wonder if his ankle is still bothering him. Season-long numbers say the Cards are still the better outfit overall, but more recent history suggests the Colts should roll, though they might have a couple holes on the interior offensive line for this one.
The Skinny
IND injuries: C Ryan Kelly (out, personal), RG Mark Glowinski (doubtful, COVID-19), K Rodrigo Blankenship (IR, hip), CB Rock Ya-Sin (doubtful, COVID-19), S Andrew Sendejo (out, concussion)
ARI injuries: RB James Conner (questionable, heel), WR Hopkins (IR, knee), WR Rondale Moore (questionable, ankle), C Rodney Hudson (questionable, COVID-19), C Max Garcia (questionable, knee), CB Robert Alford (IR, pectoral)
IND DFS targets: Zach Pascal $3,500 DK / $5,200 FD (ARI 23rd in DVOA vs. WR3)
ARI DFS targets: A.J. Green $4,900 DK / $5,900 FD (IND 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)
IND DFS fades: Carson Wentz $5,400 DK / $7,200 FD (ARI fourth in passing DVOA, fifth in passing yards per game allowed), Michael Pittman $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR1), Jack Doyle $2,700 DK / $5,000 FD and Mo Alie-Cox $2,500 DK / $4,700 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. TE)
ARI DFS fades: none
Key stat: ARI is eighth in red-zone conversions at 62.5 percent; IND is t-28th in red-zone defense at 69.0 percent
Weather forecast: dome
The Scoop: Taylor gets held to 90 combined yards, but he does score a TD. Wentz throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding T.Y. Hilton and Pascal. Chase Edmonds leads the ARI backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a score, while Conner manages 50 yards. Murray throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting Green and Zach Ertz while running in a score of his own. Cardinals 31-24
San Francisco at Tennessee (+3), o/u 44.5
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST
At 8-6, the Niners currently hold down a wild-card spot, and having won five of their last six their climb up the standings may not be done — although with both the Rams and Cards two games ahead of them in the NFC West, they'd need a holiday miracle even beyond last week's flop by Arizona to claim a division crown. While Elijah Mitchell remains out, it never seems to matter much who's getting the carries for Kyle Shanahan. Jeff Wilson popped for a 100-yard game last week, and Deebo Samuel has rushed for a TD in an improbable five straight games. Maybe Trey Sermon can come off IR this week and... nah, that'd be ridiculous. Their big weapon lately has been George Kittle though, who has put himself back in the TE1 conversation with a massive 28-425-3 line on 33 targets over the last three games. The Titans continue to cling to the lead in the AFC South, but their only win since mid-November has come against the Jags. Without Derrick Henry in the backfield, defenses seem more willing to let the likes of D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard do what they will on the ground, and they're simply making sure Ryan Tannehill can't beat them. In the six games since Henry went down, Tannehill has a 4:7 TD:INT and 5.9 YPA, and while getting A.J. Brown back will certainly help, and the Titans have averaged only 17.2 points a game on offense (I'm tossing a Kevin Byard INT return for a TD against the Rams out of the equation) during that stretch. Unless Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Todd Downing can somehow trick the opposition into stacking the box again, it's going to be tough for Tennessee to do much better on that side of the ball.
The Skinny
SF injuries: RB Mitchell (out, knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, groin), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (questionable, elbow), CB Emmanuel Moseley (IR, ankle)
TEN injuries: RB Henry (IR, foot), WR Brown (IR-R, chest), LT Taylor Lewan (out, back), LG Rodger Saffold (out, shoulder/COVID-19), LB David Long (out, hamstring)
SF DFS targets: Jauan Jennings (TEN 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)
TEN DFS targets: Brown (SF 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (SF 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)
SF DFS fades: Wilson (TEN second in rushing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPC allowed)
TEN DFS fades: Foreman (SF second in rushing DVOA), Geoff Swaim (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)
Key stat: SF is 20th in third-down conversions at 38.4 percent; TEN is 11th in third-down defense at 37.4 percent
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Wilson leads the SF backfield with 50 yards. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Jennings and Samuel. Foreman manages 60 yards and a score. Tannehill rebounds with 240 yards and two TDs, both to Brown including the game-winner in the fourth quarter. Titans 24-23
Last week's record: 10-6, 8-8 ATS, 7-8-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 141-82-1, 120-103-1 ATS, 102-119-3 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1255-754-7, 979-970-67 ATS, 712-763-29 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
