This article is part of our NFL Waiver Wire series.
I see it week after week. Those who are new to guillotine leagues are often quick on the trigger to spend their free agent acquisition budget aggressively, even on middling players who likely won't even be worth a roster spot by the time we approach December and only a handful of teams remain.
In previous articles, I've stressed the long-term advantages of being frugal with your FAAB, even when top players are available. If a potential star player becomes available on waivers in your typical redraft league, absolutely spend away! In those leagues you never know if or when another difference-maker will become available. However, in guillotine leagues, even the best players will likely hit waivers in your league multiple times, so you can gain an edge by sticking with value pickups that can help you advance early on while saving your budget long-term.
Then there is a specific group of players who fit in a category of their own -- waiver wire traps. There are three different versions of waiver wire traps who will entice some poor soul to spend their FAAB on them:
- Star players who have been inconsistent and have a tough matchup or two coming up next. You think you'd like to have them on your team long-term, but they are a short-term liability.
- Elite players who suffered an injury and are considered week-to-week (or worse). A healthy version of these players could lead you to the promised land, but will you survive as they sit on your bench and then perhaps are limited when they return?
- The one-week wonder. He's the player who could emerge as the replacement for the injured star player, but will he? And if so, how long will it last?
Be very careful with your bids on this group of players. It's probably best that you sit back and let someone else in your league take the bait, and maybe in a week or two they'll be back in the player pool and the timing and price will be right for you to add them.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott - Dallas (69.7% rostered)
Widely regarded as a top 10 fantasy quarterback heading into the season, Prescott is currently 17th in QB fantasy points per game and is headed into his bye week. After the break, the struggling Cowboys are on the road against two playoff contenders -- the 49ers and Falcons.
There are better QBs available. In fact, you probably already have one, so it's not worth spending more than a dollar or two on Dak this week.
Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis (54.5% rostered)
Richardson was the biggest risk/reward quarterback of 2024 drafts. He's as physically gifted as any player at the position, and in limited action we've seen him use his athleticism and big arm to be a fantasy asset. However, his injury issues and poor accuracy and decision-making have backup Joe Flacco looking like a better option both for fantasy teams and the Colts. Take a big swing with Richardson in your DFS lineups, but steer clear of him in guillotine leagues.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne - Jacksonville (76.9% rostered)
Etienne was already struggling and losing playing time to Tank Bigsby, and now he's a risk to miss time with a hamstring injury.
Because he was a second-round pick in most fantasy drafts, someone will surely be tempted to add him and insert him into the starting lineup as soon as he is deemed healthy, but I'd be very hesitant to invest FAAB or a starting spot in him until he's once again receiving at least 30 snaps per game.
Isaac Guerendo - San Francisco (4.1% rostered)
We got our first look at Guerendo last week when Jordan Mason went down with a shoulder injury. His 10 carries for 99 yards and a TD look great in the box score, but they were greatly inflated by one 76-yard carry. We've seen that any 49ers running back has great fantasy value but be warned that even if Mason sits and Guerendo starts this week, the 49ers have to face the Chiefs, who have been the toughest opponents against fantasy running backs this season.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave - New Orleans (74.7% rostered)
Like Etienne, Olave is a player whose market value is inflated by his preseason ranking. When healthy, he had a decent three-week stretch but has otherwise been a massive disappointment. Now his starting quarterback is injured, and he is recovering from a concussion. The best-case scenario would be that both Olave and Derek Carr return in Week 8, but considering the matchups, I would avoid Olave until Week 9 at the earliest.
Marvin Harrison - Arizona (76.7% rostered)
Harrison and Olave are off to eerily similar starts. Both were second-round picks in most drafts. Both were major disappointments in Week 1, followed by three solid performances and then two more duds, with Week 6 ending in concussions.
I certainly like Harrison's upside more than Olave's, but neither has the consistent high floor that we like to see in guillotine leagues.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert - Philadelphia (75.9% rostered)
After two mediocre weeks, Goedert emerged as the top target in Philadelphia with injuries to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Both Brown and Smith returned to action in Week 6, while Goedert left with a hamstring injury, supplying his fantasy owners with a goose egg. Based on the first six weeks of the season, I like Goedert as a top eight fantasy tight end for the rest of the season, but he looks like a short-term liability.
Can I Still Join a Guillotine League This Season?
Yes! You can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want.
Here's how it works:
1. Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2. Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3. All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4. A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5. Survive the chop and be crowned champion
Public and Private Leagues are open at GuillotineLeagues.com. And with paid public leagues now available, you can play to win cash prizes.
